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Gold price dives through support to new low. Gold Bubble continues to deflate.; Gold price to drop another 15% this year say strategists at Societe Generale
Topic Started: 3 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM (37,644 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The gold price seemed to be holding around AUD $1540 for a while, but it has now broken through that support level to a new low...

Posted Image

Posted Image

Meanwhile Sydney house prices have shot past their 2010 peak to a new record high.

Wonder why we never hear from Ted/Danno/Dave/Fullvalda these days...

Quote:
 
Gold price to fall 15% this year: strategists

02/04/2013

Gold prices could average $1500 per ounce over the course of this year, gradually dropping to $1375/oz by the end of 2013, according to strategists at Societe Generale.

"This 15% fall is quite dramatic especially compared to the Bloomberg consensus forecast of $1752/oz by the end of 2013," SocGen's Patrick Legland wrote in a research note under the headline "The end of the gold era."

The rally in gold prices over the past five years was driven by fears that money-printing by major central banks would lead to very high inflation but so far price rises have been contained and now there are three factors that could put a stop to the rally, according to the SocGen note.

The three factors are: better economic conditions that would justify an end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy, under which it is buying assets on the markets to create money, fiscal stabilization, and a rise in the US dollar.

"It seems unlikely that investors would want to add much to their long gold positions in this context. If so, the gold price would trend lower at pace as the physical gold market is seriously oversupplied without continued large-scale investor buying. Selling by investors would add fuel to the fire," Legland said.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Mike
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It will keep dropping, as world growth improves gold is less attractive. For gold to rally you need the US to go into massive economic trouble which is not going to happen any time soon. Of course North Korea could start lobbing nukes around which might rally gold prices.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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apex
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Most experts believe gold has bottomed and is set to rally, so which is the best investment, Sydney property at the peak of its bubble or gold after its consolidation phase and ready for its next rally? Idiot.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Mike
3 Apr 2013, 10:44 AM
It will keep dropping, as world growth improves gold is less attractive. For gold to rally you need the US to go into massive economic trouble which is not going to happen any time soon. Of course North Korea could start lobbing nukes around which might rally gold prices.
Yes, it's already down over 20% in real terms from the peak of the gold bubble, and if Societe Generale are right and it falls another 15% nominal, that will be over 40% down in real terms, which is the same magnitude as the property crash predicted by Steve Keen and his legion of gloomers. Funny the way we never heard Steve Keen warn about the impending 40% gold price crash... he might have finally got something right if he had predicted that, instead of constantly predicting the 40% house price crash that never happens...
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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stinkbug
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apex
3 Apr 2013, 10:44 AM
Most experts believe gold has bottomed and is set to rally, so which is the best investment, Sydney property at the peak of its bubble or gold after its consolidation phase and ready for its next rally? Idiot.
Before calling others names, perhaps you could explain why Sydney property is 'at the peak of its bubble' when it is in high demand and produces a regular yield, whereas gold is 'ready for its next rally' when the worlds' economic issues are not causing life as we know it to end and gold provides very little real utility.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Admin
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Quote:
 
Gold to grey

Joseph Cotterill

Societe Generale’s big (bearish) scorecard on “the end of the gold era” – click to enlarge:

Posted Image

Read more: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/02/1444962/gold-to-grey/
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Sydneyite
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Wow - Gold being dumped big time today; down to $US1564 & $AU1497! :pop:
Edited by Sydneyite, 3 Apr 2013, 01:04 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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earthsta
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Sydneyite
3 Apr 2013, 01:03 PM
Wow - Gold being dumped big time today; down to $US1564 & $AU1497! :pop:
And still higher than a month ago?

What's the problem?
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Sydneyite
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earthsta
3 Apr 2013, 01:55 PM
And still higher than a month ago?

What's the problem?
Huh??? Are you looking the chart upside down??

You have to go back to Aug 2011 to find the last time the price (in $AU) was lower than it is today (ie, < $AU1500). $AU Gold price has been in a consistent down trend for over 18 months now.....
Edited by Sydneyite, 3 Apr 2013, 02:30 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Andrew Judd
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earthsta
3 Apr 2013, 01:55 PM
And still higher than a month ago?

What's the problem?
In US dollar terms, the problem is the low of last month is looking vulnerable and there is no significant support before you get to 1300.

Gold is going to need some evidence of economic doom or inflation to avoid going much lower.

Silver is also looking interestingly vulnerable
Edited by Andrew Judd, 3 Apr 2013, 02:37 PM.
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