Australia's real unemployment rate is 20%, worse than Euro basket cases, Roy Morgan reveals truth; ABS credibility destroyed, we can't believe them on house prices or unemployment
Tweet Topic Started: 7 Feb 2013, 05:44 PM (6,046 Views)
Morons, I'm saying Australian Bureau of Statistics should be the definitive housing data/index provider when they get their act together, this is one of the changes I propose. Obviously they're not there yet. If my policies aren't implemented and even if they are the most likely scenario is capitulation and collapse. The ongoing slow melt translates into a Minsky moment i.e. “OMFG we are never gonna get a capital return on this shithole that we keep piling money into week after week with pissy rental income and very high holding costs (negative gearers all). Plus we owe a ton of money to the merchants of doom!
"I don’t think we should facebook update about this honey!"
Panic ensues. There is a run for the door simultaneously. The herd in its manic state cannot be stopped. It will crush and maul who stand in their way. The almighty credit bubble implodes as no third parties can be found to meet the ridiculous prices on offer. The Great Oz Ponz Land bubble ceases to be and deflates HARD.
Cue much wailing and gnashing of teeth from all vested interests as the pile of cards collapse and the financial sector is shown to be wearing no clothes, given ridiculously over-valued real estate assets on their books and ludicrously thin capital ratios based on dodgy internal risk weightings (thanks Deep T!).
End result: land bubble crashes; ZIRP does sweet FA (like everywhere else) and sweet, hard, long, cottages and crevices style deleveraging means debt deflation ala Irving Fisher (thanks Irving, we haven’t forgotten you!). Real debt ratios rise as debt deflation takes hold and house prices fall faster than debt can be paid down. Ain’t debt deflation grand? If we’re lucky we might even get ‘biflation’ (look it up).
Game over man, game over.
'Chess is war over the board. The object is to crush the opponent's mind' - Bobby Fischer
Morons, I'm saying Australian Bureau of Statistics should be the definitive housing data/index provider when they get their act together
so you were just full of shit when you posted in bold letters that ABS will reveal the truth? and you are now claiming ALL data providers have it wrong?
booby, it's just sounding more and more like you are messing your pants.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Boby, just stop it. One week ago you stated the ABS figures would tell the truth. Now that you dont like the truth the figures show you it is the data that is wrong.
I hate to point this out but ABS figures match up with nearly every other data set out there. All the data sets are pointing in the same direction and showing similar patterns.
If you think Australia is worse then Ireland or Greece, then I think it is time you jumped on a plan and went to these countries to live, find a job and buy a house. Report back on your experience.
The 10,400 jobs gain in January was driven by a 20,200 increase in part-timers, while the number of full-time workers fell by 9,800, marking the third straight monthly decrease.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. H. L. Mencken
If there are so many unemployed people, so no jobs and no income how come vacancy rates are incredibly low and who pays the rent?
talking to yourself again?
Down, down, prices are down
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
Australia's real unemployment and underemployment rate is nearly 20%, worse than unemployment in Ireland and as bad as a basket case like Greece!
So don't get too excited about those dodgy ABS house price figures they're as dodgy as their unemployment figures. The smug tone of the property investors and bulls here is going to change markedly in 2013 when the truth can't be hidden any longer. The only way out of this mess is taking our medicine now and implementing the following macroprudential policies which I know will be constructive.
1. Removal of Negative Gearing or limitation to new builds 2. Removal of Capital Gains Tax concessions for investment properties 3. Removal of restrictive land use regulation 4. Impose disincentives for land banking & speeding up development approval processes 5. Adequate financing of housing related infrastructure 6. Phasing out of all housing grants (Federal, State and Local) 7. Broad banking reform - including stricter lending regulations 8. Federal and State tax reform - imposition of a land tax and removal of inefficient stamp duties (as per the Ken Henry Report) 9. Broad reform of the Real Estate Industry and stricter regulations 10. Australian Bureau of Statistics as the definitive housing data/index provider 11. Registration and licensing of Real Estate Agents under uniform national legislation (financial advice/products category) with ASIC oversight 12. Addressing banking moral hazard and implicit and explicit taxpayer support 13. Compulsory financial literacy classes in public and private educational institutions 14. Regulation of property investment seminars 15. Reimposing foreign investment rules for temporary visa holders 16. Disallowing use of superannuation for first home buyers
No chance! each and every one of those things, in a state of emergency will be reinforced and extended. Its what 'THEY' know and what 'THEY' will do. Nothing but nothing is higher for the government, state governments and RBA on the agenda than high house prices, its what their bankster masters depend on and demand from them. However you are of course absolutely right.
When an event occurs over a very long time period it is difficult to see the change occur if you are in the midst of it. If an average person was transported in time from 1965 to today they would be gob smacked I'd imagine.
Your WIFE works? You're a labourer and you borrowed to buy a BRAND NEW car? You have HOW much debt? You have NO money saved? HOW many people collect welfare?
The changes we have experienced look good on the surface but all point to one thing. Poverty. Australians have been becoming poorer and poorer and masking it by having both parents working, piling on debt, forgoing savings. The government has been masking it too by massaging the figures, and in many cases, redesigning whole statistical measures. They have done the same with unemployment, but to be fair (as some here insist we be) how could they not and still keep confidence in the nation.
Our centrelink system is enormous with over 60% of all federal money collected being handed straight back to the unemployed, the old age, the students, the carers, the disabled (real or fake) the new immigrants. Like our personal debt it just grows and grows and every effort of the government to reverse the trend fails. People want something for nothing, all the way from the billionare demanding changes in economic zones to the 17 year old unemployed parent of 2 wanting a baby bonus. The landlord wants negitive gearing and the occupant wants rent assistance. Where is all the money for this coming from, and more importantly, when will it run out.
The real unemployment rate? frankrider's index puts it at over 30% because I count all the welfare recipiants above, excluding the old age pensioners though. Before national welfare systems came along these people would have either worked or starved to death. Guess what, they worked, and in some cases (like during the great depression) did starve to death. Why didn't we have these systems before 1930? We couldn't afford them obviously, and just as obviously, we cannot afford them now, hence the debt.
The hardest concept for people to accept is the simple fact that we have arrived at where we are today, a place of leasure and opulence, on the back of cheap energy. Most people believe we arrived at this pinacle of social and technological achievement by our own brain power. We are smart, we invented and created, and we pulled ourselves out of the horse and cart and the mud of 19th century dirt roads to drive in luxury cars on concrete super highways, in air-conditioned comfort. Certainly there is an element to this, but I assure you, if diesel powered trucks, tractors and harvestors had not arrived, the vast majority of Australians would still be working on farms producing the food we need for daily life and driving horse drawn wagons to deliver it.
It was as much as anything the freeing up of this labour that allowed the youth to say in school and become better educated. Allowed people the freedom of time to dedicate their resources to inventing and designing. Ancient Rome had a sewer network but it took Brisbane until 1967 to begin installing one in the suburbs. Why? We didn't have the slaves Rome had and we couldn't afford tens of thoudsands of labourers to dig the hundreds of kilometers of deep trenches needed. Then the backhoe came along and made it practical. The power of oil replaced the need for all those labourers. That's how it was before oil did the menial work for us, there are 10 000 man hours of work equivalents in every barrel of oil.
It is no coincidence we saw a recovery in the economy during the 80's and 90's. Oil was forced down to $20 a barrel in a "lets party now, pay for it later" fiesta of global wastage. When we had to start drilling 5000 feet under the ocean bed things changed though. And as oil rises and rises we will no longer be able to afford to pay hundreds of thousands of carers to sit at home and look after mum, we wont be able to afford to pay millions of young men and women to sit on their bums on the dole and watch tv or play computer games all day. And yet we still are? Our whole society, like that of the other western nations, is based now on confidence, there is nothing fundamentally supporting our lifestyles, we are living in a confidence game built on debt.
The only difference between us and a third world nation has been our ability to exploit the third world nation. To take it's oil at $20 a barrel, it's coffee and rice and labour at super cheap prices compared to our own. Some people think China is in the club of western nations now but it is just the last in a long line of third world nations that has been exploited and cast aside when it's labour becomes too expensive to support our lifestyles in the west. Look at Japan! It was so rich but as soon as production for western nations moved away to korea and taiwan it fell in a hole. It's trains are still running but for how long? They are choked in debt. Japan has unemployment insurance but it is based on time worked, and when it runs out it runs out and the people live in cardboard boxes. They prospered for what, 20 or 30 years? Hardly a success story when you think about it. Their middleclass is decimated, soon it will be the rich and the poor again.
Well 300 years of western dominance is coming to an end and for 40+ years we have witnessed the result of this. Unemployment payments in the US, which used to mirror ours, have shrunk to 99 weeks total and the poverty there is aproaching third world levels. Here we have done better because of limited federal expenditure (except on welfare) and the natural resources we have been able to sell. "Free money from the ground". But we too have seen a big lowering of our standard of living since 1970. You cannot equate a nice home and 2 new cars to a high standard of living unless you own them all outright. If they are there because of a mountain of debt then all you have done is spend the next 5 or 10 or 20 years of your labour today, and that ensures you will be a lot poorer in the future.
This is not a wild guess, it is reality. Go canvas a group of pensioners and see how well the average one is living. And remember, most of these people got out of debt decades before retirement and often entered retirement with savings and investments. Very few globetrot I can assure you. The majority spend their days watching the tv, and then the fuel guage as they drive to shopping centres and try to find the best specials. A power bill or a rates notice is a big event and often a challenge. How will this current spend thrift generation do when it's their turn to retire? Will there be a rush to pay off all the debt before their high income is gone forever? Or will many enter retirement as bankrupts, dependent on a dwindling federal pension.
Does anyone here understand the fate suffered by the US property investors of the last 10 years. In all the other western nations that have seen a collapse in prices? Everthing is a craps shoot now, pick your numbers and roll the dice but you better have a good plan B ready just in case. Unemployment has grown higher and higher for 40 years and the statistics that measure it have been changing at every downturn. If you want to sell shares in a new company that's good news, but if you have to rely on income generated from that same company then it could paint an entirely different picture. Employment is the key to future wealth and a true knowledge of the facts is an invaluable tool for our own economic security.
What makes money in a nation of unemployed people? Not much I am afraid.
Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan
A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
So you cant actually answer the question. Thanks for the confirmation that I am dealing with dickheads
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
The government has been masking it too by massaging the figures, and in many cases, redesigning whole statistical measures. They have done the same with unemployment, but to be fair (as some here insist we be) how could they not and still keep confidence in the nation.
proof please.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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