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Anyone on minimum wage can afford to buy or rent a home in Australia
Topic Started: 29 Jan 2013, 03:53 PM (22,064 Views)
Strindberg
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Veritas
29 Jan 2013, 05:24 PM
As for your rubbishing of the affordability metric, you can take it up with AHURI or any of the other housing research bodies who use it all the time.
Your beloved AHURI (Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute) agree with Shadow and the thread title.

http://www.ahuri.edu.au/publications/download.asp?ContentID=40503_fr&Redirect=true

"Housing implications of economic, social, and spatial change" - published September 2010

The paper examines the factors which determine household tenure.

Page 78

Quote:
 
Income and numbers of persons employed has a small but significant impact on
household tenure choice in this model. The effect of income has fallen away
somewhat over the decade, while the effect of employment status has increased
slightly. This is in general agreement with our assertion that almost anyone with a job
could become a home owner during this period if they wished.


The period referred to in the study is 1996-2006. House price/income ratio and household debt/income are little changed since 2006 so it is fair to assume that the above conclusion still applies ie "that almost anyone with a job could become a home owner during this period if they wished".
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

AHURI
 
This is in general agreement with our assertion that almost anyone with a job could become a home owner during this period if they wished.
Nice find.

Also interesting how the bears start to call me a 'troll' just because I post some facts that they don't like. Very reminiscent of GHPC and Credit Crunch before their downfall, as the bears became increasingly frustrated at the lack of a property crash and started directing their anger towards the bulls, who they finally realised had been correct all along. Housing in Australia is perfectly affordable. This fact angers the bears because it makes them realise how unlikely a crash really is, and how they have wasted so many years of their life waiting for a crash.
Edited by Shadow, 30 Jan 2013, 11:16 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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zaph
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Shadows figures are simplistic, but buying housing on min wage is difficult, but not impossible.
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Trojan
30 Jan 2013, 09:09 AM
I (like many others here) think Shadow's example is completely viable.
Its only your rose-tinted glasses which makes you only see a one-sided view.
That'd be shit smeared glasses ;)
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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Veritas
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Almost anyone.

So, some couldnt.

If everyone could- like someone on the minimum wage for example- then they would have said "anyone" n'est pas?

Perhaps the best way to asnwer this question ultimately is to try and find out how many people on the minimum wage are homeowners.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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nipa hut
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Strindberg
30 Jan 2013, 10:39 AM
The period referred to in the study is 1996-2006. House price/income ratio and household debt/income are little changed since 2006 so it is fair to assume that the above conclusion still applies ie "that almost anyone with a job could become a home owner during this period if they wished".
Nice try, Strindberg.

The same study, which you quote so approvingly, also notes

Quote:
 
Outright ownership is increasingly a tenure for older people. There has been a very large loss of about 10 percentage points in outright ownership for 25–44-year-olds, and a loss of 15 points for middle-aged households. This has not been fully replaced by a higher incidence of purchasing, except in high-income households in non-metro areas. [emphasis added]

...

The changes in tenure of the past decade could be described as part of a continuing assault on middle Australia following the unpleasant labour and financial restructuring of the previous decade


In other words, the ability to quickly pay off a mortgage worsened drastically over the period 1996-2006, and it was predominantly high-income households in non-metro areas that became new purchasers. Those two trends, pre-established by 2006, are decidedly unsupportive of your conjecture that the "almost anyone with a job..." mantra has remained applicable since 2006.
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Trojan
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Veritas
30 Jan 2013, 12:27 PM
Almost anyone.

So, some couldnt.

If everyone could- like someone on the minimum wage for example- then they would have said "anyone" n'est pas?
Some will never be able to buy a house regardless of whether they are on minimum wages or not - they just spend too much.


AHURI probably chose those particular words because they were afraid some nameless person here will play semantics with them if they left out the word "Almost".

AHURI: This is in general agreement with our assertion that anyone with a job could become a home owner during this period if they wished.
Troll: Anyone? Thats a pretty strong statement. What about those who have creditors chasing them for a $10mil debt and garnishing their wages.
AHURI: Ok, they can't afford to buy
Troll: And what about those who only work 1 hour a week - they are still classified as having a job?
AHURI: You are correct, those who only work 1 hour per week won't be able to buy during that period.
Troll: And what about those who are a quadriplegic and pays for a full time carer to look after them?
AHURI: No, they won't be able to afford to buy either
Troll: Conditions! AHA! I got you. So your claim about "Anyone" is false and I have proven you are full of bullshit.
*pats himself on the back*
Troll: I have won! I called their bullshit! I contribute so much to this forum!

:)
Edited by Trojan, 30 Jan 2013, 01:25 PM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Strindberg
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Veritas
30 Jan 2013, 12:27 PM
Almost anyone.

So, some couldnt.

If everyone could- like someone on the minimum wage for example- then they would have said "anyone" n'est pas?

Perhaps the best way to asnwer this question ultimately is to try and find out how many people on the minimum wage are homeowners.

Doing your usual wriggle when faced with facts you'd rather didn't exist.
I suspect the "almost anyone" is there to cover those who might be people with long prison records or other factors which limit them.
We know that people on minimum wage CAN afford to buy a dwelling. There is no reason to limit the dwelling to major city metro areas.


The stats for ownership amongst the bottom income quintile of households are in the ABS Housing Costs Report 2009/10 table 10.

Number of owner households in bottom 20% income group = 1,266,400

Number of renter households in bottom 20% income group = 715,700

So, 64% of the bottom 20% of households by income are homeowners. Not much different to the overall figure..



Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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nipa hut
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zaph
30 Jan 2013, 11:31 AM
Shadows figures are simplistic, but buying housing on min wage is difficult, but not impossible.
So, a quick gut check here, folks:

Just how many of you on this board can legitimately claim to have gone through a sustained young-adult period on minimum-wage income, living on their own (whether in shared or own accommodation, but without parental or other subsidy of any kind, actually truly really saved a full 1/3 of their income over multiple years towards a down-payment for a dwelling...?

[Cue numerous sock-puppets with Oliver-Twist-made-good renditions...] :lol :lol :lol

Remember, all of the conditions need to have applied over the multi-year period:
- minimum-wage income
- living on their own
- actually saved a full 1/3 of their income towards a down payment on a house
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Strindberg
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nipa hut
30 Jan 2013, 01:10 PM
Nice try, Strindberg.

The same study, which you quote so approvingly, also notes


..some irrelevant comments about outright ownership....
Poor try nipa. AHURI are categorical:

Quote:
 
This is in general agreement with our assertion that almost anyone with a job
could become a home owner during this period if they wished.


Quoting their comments regarding outright ownership and what people chose to do in the past confirms your common tendency towards straw men. The thread is NOT about outright ownership or even about what people did in the past. It is about what people CAN do. Your post and the quotes you captured have no relevance. Please try harder. This is too easy.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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