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A Storm is Brewing for the Australian Economy and Housing Bubble; Ignore the thunder, get washed away in the rain. Troubling combination of factors that cannot be ignored.
Topic Started: 23 Jan 2013, 05:47 AM (23,231 Views)
Simon_S
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stinkbug
5 Nov 2016, 07:42 PM
You haven't made an argument. All you do is quote bits of articles and then shout "doom and gloom".
LOL....What part of the RBA's 2 depressions and 1 Banking Collapse do you not Comprehend?

RBA: 2 Depressions and 1 Banking Collapse

Quote:
 
Over the past 150 years, Australia has experienced two macroeconomic
depressions, both of which coincided with worldwide depressions.1 The first of
these was in the 1890s and the second in the 1930s. These were also times of
financial distress both domestically and in the rest of the world. For Australia
there were many similarities across both depressions. Indeed Sinclair (1965, p. 85)
suggests: ‘There is such an obvious similarity between the economic depressions
which occurred in Australia in the 1890s and the 1930s that it is tempting to
suggest that history was repeating itself in the latter case


Quote:
 
The central argument of this paper is that variation in the performance of the
financial system across the two depressions was primarily due to variation in the
condition of the financial system prior to each depression. We show this by
examining the behaviour of a range of indicators of financial stability over the
decade prior to each depression.4 These indicators are:
(i) the level and nature of investment;
(ii) property market speculation;
(iii) credit growth;
(iv) capital inflows;
(v) degree of risk management within the financial system; and
(vi) competitive pressures in the financial sector.


Look there it is again..........

Now what about those:

Record Levels of Private Debt....
Record High Asset Values.........
Record Low Interest Rates........
26 years of Uninterrupted Economic growth...........Remember that thing Called the Business Cycle........

Shit Even Trollie Backed the f*** away:

Quote:
 
Simon_S
4 Nov 2016, 09:38 PM
So You're saying:

The Boom will never end..............We can never have another recession.
Interest Rates can never Rise........They will forever stay at record lows.
Asset Values can never fall............They will continue higher because its Impossible for them to fall.
Private Debt will never matter..........Because we can forever take on more.




Oh so If I choose the "Right Metrics" I can be right..............LOL

Trollie:

No I'm not saying any of that.


And Just In case you missed it here it is Again:

1890's Private Debt was 75% of GDP (Depression and Banking Collapse)
1930's Private Debt was 45% of GDP (Just a Depression)
2017 its now over 125% of GDP.........Hmmm Wonder what we'll get this Time Around..........

Now What were You Saying again?





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Trollie
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Can't bring yourself to quote the whole paragraph can you simple.

" However, in this paper
we highlight one of the major differences between the two depressions"

So it's not the same.
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Ex BP Golly
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stinkbug
5 Nov 2016, 07:42 PM
You haven't made an argument. All you do is quote bits of articles and then shout "doom and gloom".

Leave Black Panther alone.
Trollie
5 Nov 2016, 10:25 PM
Can't bring yourself to quote the whole paragraph can you simple.

" However, in this paper
we highlight one of the major differences between the two depressions"

So it's not the same.
Do you think they need to be exactly the same to be as they are, both called "depressions"?

It pretty obvious that they would have to be different. The world changed a lot in c.50 years.
Edited by Ex BP Golly, 5 Nov 2016, 11:19 PM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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stinkbug
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Lol. Golly accuses others of sock puppetry.

Still carrying the anger, huh?
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Simon_S
Member Avatar


Trollie
5 Nov 2016, 10:25 PM
Can't bring yourself to quote the whole paragraph can you simple.

" However, in this paper
we highlight one of the major differences between the two depressions"

So it's not the same.
Please can you bring yourself to Highlight What the DIFFERENCES were Between the 2 Depressions..........

Or will you now play the "I'm not going to do your work for you" routine.......When you clearly look Stupid.

What Stinkbug no reply?

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herbie
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Well, subject ta building 'n pest 'n blah blah, tha youngs have just bought their next one. So yep, I wasn't wrong about me punt they were starting to sound serious.

Will give 'em maybe $825k in equity 'n $725k in debt by my calcs. (Which I suspect might be seen as rather 'conservative' these days? - Leastways tha banks aren't askin' 'em ta put their own home up as collateral - So I reckon that sounds good.)

I'd of never had tha guts ta do it - But good on them I reckon. (It just ain't tha same world as when 'I woz a boy' it seems ... :) )
Edited by herbie, 6 Nov 2016, 12:15 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Bardon
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That's interesting Herbie, can you share the generic details of the deal?
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Mallard
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Thread killer

Heh heh heh. Whatever happened to old Timo? Did he capitulate like Moopsy? And what about AREPS. Such drivel
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Trollie
Member Avatar


Simon_S
6 Nov 2016, 08:34 AM
Please can you bring yourself to Highlight What the DIFFERENCES were Between the 2 Depressions..........

Or will you now play the "I'm not going to do your work for you" routine.......When you clearly look Stupid.

What Stinkbug no reply?
If you can't make your own arguments clear that's your own problem.
Mallard
6 Nov 2016, 12:40 PM
Heh heh heh. Whatever happened to old Timo? Did he capitulate like Moopsy? And what about AREPS. Such drivel
I'm sure he's still here, hey Simon.
Edited by Trollie, 6 Nov 2016, 12:48 PM.
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herbie
Member Avatar


Bardon
6 Nov 2016, 12:22 PM
That's interesting Herbie, can you share the generic details of the deal?
Not really mate. But anyway wot I can tell you is it's not a damn inner city Brisvegas apartment.

And that I'm personally extremely glad for them and supportive of their choice ... etc.

Actually said ta 'em "I'm a bit jealous" - LOL

A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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