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A Storm is Brewing for the Australian Economy and Housing Bubble; Ignore the thunder, get washed away in the rain. Troubling combination of factors that cannot be ignored.
Topic Started: 23 Jan 2013, 05:47 AM (23,221 Views)
Timo
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The Property Bulls (or pigs) are out in force attempting to lure more AREPS (Australian Real Estate Ponzi Scheme) victims into sacrificing their hard earned cash into paying for mistakes of the average Property Bull. Or just out of plain greed.

Thank-fully, many Australians are not turning into the simple minded herd animals that the AREPS has relied on for so long.

As we enter 2013, some troubling signs are emerging in terms of the health of the economy, jobs and continued declines in home "values". While most Australians will welcome the increase in housing affordability, the message of "keep saving that deposit and watch house prices fall" has never been more applicable.

Consider some of the following developments as important warning signs that over-committing in one of the worlds most vastly un affordable and over-valued real estate markets is reckless.

"The Fuse is Fizzing for the Australian Economy"
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20130105/the-fuse-is-fizzing-for-the-australian-economy.html

As mining slows down what is our next silver bullet?

"Business confidence hits 15 year low"
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Business-confidence-hits-15-year-low-in-Q4-ACCI-pd20130122-4726P?OpenDocument&src=hp27

Show us the money? What money? It's tied up in speculative housing market and not out working in the real economy!

"Jobless rate jumps to 5.4%"
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/unemployment-rate-up-to-54pc-in-december/story-e6frg926-1226555722255

This is what happens when our on trick pony slows down and business confidence is at a 15 year low, expect more job losses to come.

"Swan dumps surplus pledge"
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/swan-dumps-surplus-pledge-20121220-2bou0.html

Clearly a sign that the economy is in great shape, not mention "Emergency low" interest rates

"First Home Buyer Expectations Collapse"
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/01/first-home-buyer-price-expectations-collapse/

Without new victims in a ponzi scheme, the scheme, well collapses!

KEEP SAVING THAT DEPOSIT AND WATCH HOUSE PRICES FALL

After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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mango66
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Good on you Timo. All it takes is for the entry level buyers to stop and things will quickly change. The govt are throwing everything at this ponzi and finally it seems more evident the market and how it's perceived is changing. Rural areas will be the big indicator on what's going to happen. Major cities will have tightening rental markets as sea and tree changers have no option other than to move back for work. Rental prices will probably rise short term in the big cities but I think house prices will remain flat until they start dropping through lack of confidence in our economy as well as global conditions. I don't accept long stagnation theories as I think outside and internal influences ( unemployment rising ) will have a severe effect on our economy. The mining sector when it cools will be the start of our downturn.

Finally I think skamy's daughter at some stage will stop talking to him/her. I think it's her. :lol
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Timo
23 Jan 2013, 05:47 AM
KEEP SAVING THAT DEPOSIT AND WATCH HOUSE PRICES FALL

you have a funny definition of falling.

http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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skamy
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mango66
23 Jan 2013, 07:07 AM
Good on you Timo. All it takes is for the entry level buyers to stop and things will quickly change. The govt are throwing everything at this ponzi and finally it seems more evident the market and how it's perceived is changing. Rural areas will be the big indicator on what's going to happen. Major cities will have tightening rental markets as sea and tree changers have no option other than to move back for work. Rental prices will probably rise short term in the big cities but I think house prices will remain flat until they start dropping through lack of confidence in our economy as well as global conditions. I don't accept long stagnation theories as I think outside and internal influences ( unemployment rising ) will have a severe effect on our economy. The mining sector when it cools will be the start of our downturn.

Finally I think skamy's daughter at some stage will stop talking to him/her. I think it's her. :lol
Got a crush on me Mango? You cannot post without mentioning me- so happy to have your attention. :D :D

You are so jealous of my daughter hey? But sorry to tell you mate but at times like these the rich and theirs get richer and the ragged trousered philanthropists like you run around supporting land donations for the demographia developer guys.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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frankrider
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timmy
23 Jan 2013, 09:37 AM
Timo
23 Jan 2013, 05:47 AM
KEEP SAVING THAT DEPOSIT AND WATCH HOUSE PRICES FALL

you have a funny definition of falling.

http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html
rpdata daily hedonics again , dream on timmy dream on.

Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan

A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
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snoopy
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frankrider
23 Jan 2013, 12:33 PM
rpdata daily hedonics again , dream on timmy dream on.
Timo - you are right about one thing. Save a deposit to buy a house. Unfortunately prices in Australia are unlikely to fall given the strong population growth, high income, low unemployment and one of the best economies in the developed world - so it might be worthwhile having a strategy in place to deal with house prices staying flat or growing. You seem to put a lot of effort in talking down house prices which at times is very amusing.
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Timo
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mango66
23 Jan 2013, 07:07 AM
Good on you Timo. All it takes is for the entry level buyers to stop and things will quickly change. The govt are throwing everything at this ponzi and finally it seems more evident the market and how it's perceived is changing. Rural areas will be the big indicator on what's going to happen. Major cities will have tightening rental markets as sea and tree changers have no option other than to move back for work. Rental prices will probably rise short term in the big cities but I think house prices will remain flat until they start dropping through lack of confidence in our economy as well as global conditions. I don't accept long stagnation theories as I think outside and internal influences ( unemployment rising ) will have a severe effect on our economy. The mining sector when it cools will be the start of our downturn.

Finally I think skamy's daughter at some stage will stop talking to him/her. I think it's her. :lol
Cheers Mango, most people like yourself are starting to broaden their thinking outside the bull pen, which looks to be setting off to the slaughterhouse!
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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nofriends
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timmy
23 Jan 2013, 09:37 AM
you have a funny definition of falling.

http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html
shutup idiot

drawing conclusions from the joke of a data source.

what did the ABS say?
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Timo
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timmy
23 Jan 2013, 09:37 AM
you have a funny definition of falling.

http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html
Well lets use your situation to describe the same thing in a different way.... Negative Equity, you enjoying it yet timmy?
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

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23 Jan 2013, 02:13 PM
shutup idiot

drawing conclusions from the joke of a data source.

what did the ABS say?
ABS data only goes up to September quarter 2012, but it shows a similar picture to RPData up to that point - i.e. moderate YOY and QOQ national house price gains, driven mainly by Perth and Sydney... http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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