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Happy Anniversary Shads; ...and you thought I'd forgotten
Topic Started: 22 Jan 2013, 10:42 PM (5,462 Views)
stinkbug
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I don't really expect Shadow's prediction to comde true, but it's going to be very funny if it does. Imagine how angry Earthsta will get then! :lol
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Fullvalda
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His prediction is not looking very good at all, up the 9% pa you hoped for .
Just checking out some more northern sydney suburbs then , still cant find one with a gain over the last two years , plenty of declines, two more I just looked on REALESTATE.COM.AU . I mean ,these are just the figures on there web site as I am posting, not mine. Do you think these figures are accurate , I saw doctor wilson tell us that everything would be fine and that the market was resilient way back in june 2011 in the article below( think he used the words "proving resilient" , theres also some comments below , you might want to check out some of the other suburbs mentioned and see how resilient they have been.

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/prices-dip-on-the-northern-beaches-20110603-1fjdi.html

the two below were mentioned in the article above.



narrabeen
2004- 1,250,000
2005- 1,175,000
2006- 1,230,000
2007- 1,100,000
2008- 1,025,000
2009- 1,082,000
2010- 1,398,000
2011- 1,224,000 - 12.5%
2012- 1,160,000 - 5.2%

avalon
04- 950,000
05- 1,050,000
06- 975,000
07- 1,010,000
08- 1,045,000
09- 1,000,000
10- 1,150,000
11- 1,050,000 -8.7%
12- 1,010,000 -3.8%

So its now cheaper to buy into these suburbs than it was 8 or 9 years ago , who would of thought that with all the popualtion increase and housing supply shortage.


Edited by Fullvalda, 23 Jan 2013, 11:48 AM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Fullvalda
23 Jan 2013, 11:19 AM
june 2011 in the article below...
June 2011 is a year and a half ago. Sydney prices started rising again in mid-2012, and are up 3.4% YOY already...

http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

In fact, the RPData index is fast becoming a sea of green. Prices are up pretty much everywhere YOY and QOQ...

Posted Image

Looks like the big crash is off the table again. Pity you sold at the trough Ted. Not only will it cost you an extra 3-4% to buy your old house back, you'll also need to fork out another 4-5% in stamp duty and agent fees. But at least you have your brother's shed to live in while you ponder that predicament...
Edited by Shadow, 23 Jan 2013, 11:50 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Fullvalda
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Yes , I mentioned it was an article written way back in june 2011 so we could see firstly that dr wilson was once again wrong in his call to put it as mildly as possible and also so we can have a genuine look at the suburbs mentioned in this article for a real life insight .

So we will now have a look at every individual suburb mentioned in this article and see how it goes. :bye:

This 3% you cling to shadow, like I have told you ,not in your area .


another there the first one mentioned fairlight

FAIRLIGHT HOUSE PRICES

04- 1,061,250
05- 907,500
06- 1,000,000
07- 1,205,000
08- 1,142,500
09- 1,200,000
10- 1,300,000
11- 1,210,000- 6.9%
12- 1,143,750- 5.5%

theres the link below , scroll half way down page and click on annual property prices.

http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=sp&s=nsw&u=fairlight

What about these price drops on the northern beaches , just not happening at your house right shadow :bl:

Balgowlah was also mentioned in the article

2008- 1,231,500
2009- 1,180,000
2010- 1,325,000
2011- 1,220,000 -7.9%
2012- 1,200,000 -1.6%

Link below, scroll half way down and click on annaul proprerty prices

http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=sp&s=nsw&u=balgowlah



What about Clontarf which was also mentioned in the article when dr. wilson said it was proving resilient back in june 2011.

CLONTARF HOUSE PRICES- where it is now infact cheaper to buy a house now, than it was ten years ago, yes thats right.
see link below, scroll down about half way and click on- annual property prices.

http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=sp&s=nsw&u=clontarf

Clontarf house prices
2003- 1,950,000
2004- 2,200,000
2005- 1,912,500
2006- 2,015,000
2007- 2,175,000
2008- 2,120,000
2009- 2,595,000
2010- 2,025,000
2011- 2,125,000
2012- 1,700,000 -20%

lucky for resilence, just very glad I did sell now shadow, as you can see , you should of done the same, yet you what to competely ignore all these facts and harp on about your 3%. good luck
2009-
Edited by Fullvalda, 23 Jan 2013, 12:31 PM.
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Shadow
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Fullvalda
23 Jan 2013, 12:02 PM
fairlight
Balgowlah
How about Freshie...

Posted Image

Or Cromer, Curl Curl, Manly Vale...

We can all cherry pick suburbs Ted, but I'm talking about the overall Sydney market, which is up 3.4% YOY.

Note that those annual charts you're looking at show the average of the medians for each month of the year.

The recovery began mid-2012 and is not really reflected in the annual charts, because the first half of 2012 was down.

You sold at the wrong time, and now prices across Sydney as a whole are higher than when you sold.

It was a bad call Ted. Enjoy your shed.
Edited by Shadow, 23 Jan 2013, 12:43 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Fullvalda
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Whats this rubbish about cherry picking, we are showing suburbs mentioned in the article, they are all down so far,only a couple to go, so far they are all being smashed ,how could you pretend otherwise.

I think yesterday stinkbug said something about me being incapable of debating , the fact is you cannot have a proper and sensible debate when the person you are debating wishes to disreguard all the facts and reality as shadow does here, as most can see ,rather pointless debating somebody who wishes to act this way.

As you can see the northern beaches is the last place you would of bought , especially for investment purposes as now proved, but Dr . Wilson said it was resilent. So much for experts , how many listened and believe this nonsense.

I can here an indian war cry.

Edited by Fullvalda, 23 Jan 2013, 12:44 PM.
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Shadow
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Fullvalda
23 Jan 2013, 12:39 PM
I think yesterday stinkbug said something about me being incapable of debating , the fact is you cannot have a proper and sensible debate when the person you are debating wishes to disreguard all the facts and reality as shadow does here, as most can see ,rather pointless debating somebody who wishes to act this way.
The fact is, Sydney house prices fell by a few percent between mid-2010 and mid-2012. You saw it happen, panicked, and sold your home (after prices had fallen).

But then prices recovered and are up 3.5% YOY since you sold. Not only do you need to pay more to buy your old house back, you are also up for stamp duty and agents fees.

Bad call.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Fullvalda
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Shadow
23 Jan 2013, 12:49 PM
Fullvalda
23 Jan 2013, 12:39 PM
I think yesterday stinkbug said something about me being incapable of debating , the fact is you cannot have a proper and sensible debate when the person you are debating wishes to disreguard all the facts and reality as shadow does here, as most can see ,rather pointless debating somebody who wishes to act this way.
The fact is, Sydney house prices fell by a few percent between mid-2010 and mid-2012. You saw it happen, panicked, and sold your home (after prices had fallen).

But then prices recovered and are up 3.5% YOY since you sold. Not only do you need to pay more to buy your old house back, you are also up for stamp duty and agents fees.

Bad call.
To bad my area and your area is being smashed as shown , so unfortunately you wount be seeing any of that 3% gains ,just some of the disaterous drops we have seen in you area. I thought my area was bad, that was until I looked into your area, shadow.

I can only imagine how it must be to own 4 properties in that area that were purchased at or near peak prices , do your self a favour and jump ship before you lose anymore than you already have shadow, honestly buddy, surely you can smell the coffee by now.

Clontarf down 20% this year alone, another year like that , and theres 40% on that one, keep going. Not to mention that the median house price was 14.7% higher ten years ago in 2003, fancy that .

Must be a big eye opener for some .
Edited by Fullvalda, 23 Jan 2013, 01:02 PM.
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Shadow
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Fullvalda
23 Jan 2013, 12:55 PM
I can only imagine how it must be to own 4 properties in that area that were purchased at or near peak prices
I started buying in 2005, and my most recent purchase was early 2009, so all well below peak...

Posted Image

Quote:
 
do your self a favour and jump ship
And miss out on all that nice rental income... I don't think so.

Quote:
 
Clontarf down 20% this year alone, another year like that , and theres 40% on that one, keep going.
Clontarf is a luxury suburb with a $2m median, and those are raw median figures - do I need to explain your error here?
Edited by Shadow, 23 Jan 2013, 01:05 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Fullvalda
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House prices are being smashed in your area, yet your still peddling house prices to the moon ,soon to appraoch 1 million in a distant far away galaxy, truly unbelievable, look at the figures for your area, you believed them all when they were going up, just not now they are coming down, its not just clontarf, they are ALL BEING SMASHED-ITS A FACT SHADOW, AS YOUR MATE FOOLED WOULD SAY, READ IT AND WEEP OR WELCOME TO THE NEW NORMAL. :bl:
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