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Abenomics: Japan's economic revolution will rock our world. BOJ blows big bubble say experts.; Japanese people have a bubble every 50 years. Once Japan does have a bubble they do it really big.
Topic Started: 22 Jan 2013, 12:01 PM (13,760 Views)
Catweasel
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Enjoy The Ride
10 May 2013, 08:33 PM
So the quadrillion dollar question is. What is Mrs Watanabe buying? USD, AUD, Gold?
Catweasel say crikey.

A SBI Securities online trading was a down this the morning and a blame be the on a maintenance.

Spooky.

So it take the Catweasel until a later to witness the great lovefest in a equities.

Aiful (consumer the loans) up a 13% in a day (up a 1000% in a P12M)

Suzuki up a 11% in a day (up a 109% in a 12 month).

Nikkei 225 up a 2.87 (up a 78% in a P12M)

Gung-Ho Entertainment (no the joke) up a 16% (open price in a May 2012 is a JPY14,000; current the price is a JPY1,042,000).

Is it a 7000%+???

Crikey.

Gold the ETF only the up a 20% on a Nikkei.

Sexy is the elsewhere.
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genX
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Enjoy The Ride
10 May 2013, 08:33 PM
So the quadrillion dollar question is. What is Mrs Watanabe buying? USD, AUD, Gold?
I would be speculating, but almost certainly the Nikkei. Nominal profits rise in inflationary periods, bringing the stock of the companies making those profits along with them. In both the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe, before the public lost faith in the currency, the best performing assets were equities.
Posted Image
World's Best Performing Stock Market
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And always a favourite
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Got me one of these at home. I can't wait to add a 百兆円 note to my collection.

Oh, and what Catweasel said above ^^
Edited by genX, 10 May 2013, 09:29 PM.
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Catweasel
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genX
10 May 2013, 09:25 PM
I would be speculating, but almost certainly the Nikkei. Nominal profits rise in inflationary periods, bringing the stock of the companies making those profits along with them. In both the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe, before the public lost faith in the currency, the best performing assets were equities.
Posted Image
World's Best Performing Stock Market
Posted Image

And always a favourite
Posted Image
Got me one of these at home. I can't wait to add a 百兆円 note to my collection.

Oh, and what Catweasel said above ^^
Catweasel say crikey.

If a Japan head down a Zimbabwe road, what it the say about its the future?

Not a word in a SM the H....yet.
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peter fraser
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Land of the Rising Sums

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/10/land-of-the-rising-sums/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto

The good news for Abenomics keeps rolling in; of course, it’s not over until the sumo wrestler sings, but there has clearly been a major change in Japanese psychology and expectations, which is what it’s all about.

Why does this seem to be working as well as it is? Long ago I argued that to gain traction in a liquidity trap, the central bank needed to credibly promise to be irresponsible — that is, convince investors that it would not rein in monetary expansion once the economy was at full employment and inflation was starting to rise. And this is a hard thing to do; no matter what central bankers may say, history shows that they often revert to type at the first opportunity. The examples of successful changes in expectations tend to involve drastic regime changes, like FDR taking us off the gold standard.

And this is where the tsunami-China moral equivalent of space aliens theory comes in: arguably, the shocks of the past two years have changed Japanese perceptions of what must be done enough to make irresponsibility — or, actually, a serious, sustained commitment to higher inflation — credible, at long last.

Meanwhile, Martin Feldstein is demanding an end to the Fed’s efforts to do the same thing, inducing much ire from David Glasner, who accuses Feldstein of failing to grasp the point that it is all about changing inflation expectations. But it’s actually much worse than Glasner says. Here’s Feldstein:


Mr. Bernanke has emphasized that the use of unconventional monetary policy requires a cost-benefit analysis that compares the gains that quantitative easing can achieve with the risks of asset-price bubbles, future inflation, and the other potential effects of a rapidly growing Fed balance sheet.

So, we must stop QE because it might lead to higher inflation — when expectations of (somewhat) higher inflation are precisely the main point of unconventional monetary policy. You might even say that if QE fails, it will because people like Feldstein are doing their best to block the main channel through which it might work.

By the way, Glasner references an earlier Feldstein piece I missed, which is extraordinary in its own way. Feldstein concedes that the problem is inadequate demand, and talks about what we can do:


What is required is action by the president and Congress: to help homeowners with negative equity and businesses that cannot get credit, to remove the threat of higher tax rates, and reduce the out-year fiscal deficits.

OK, I’m for debt relief. But faced with inadequate demand, our only options are to “remove the threat of higher tax rates” and “reduce out-year fiscal deficits” — both of which are basically ways to summon the confidence fairy. Why not, you know, actually have the government spend more now — or, failing that, cut the current taxes of people likely to spend the money? Everything I can see about Feldstein’s economic framework points to fiscal stimulus as the obvious answer; his refusal to consider that possibility has to be entirely, and unforgivably, political.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Elastic
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What could possibly go wrong?
When the next crisis hits as a result of QE, ZIRP etc what are the remaining options?
Who knows when this is going to happen. Maybe we will see another boom before it goes to hell but I don't get a good feeling about this.

I also think Krugman is full of sh*t.
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It's all about psychology and expectations

Edited by Elastic, 11 May 2013, 01:29 AM.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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genX
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peter fraser
11 May 2013, 12:12 AM
The good news for Abenomics keeps rolling in; of course, it’s not over until the sumo wrestler sings, but there has clearly been a major change in Japanese psychology and expectations, which is what it’s all about.
Yes, destroying the life savings of your elderly population is certainly good news. Maybe they could take their pensioners, mince them and sell them cheap in cans so the younger generation has something to eat when Abenomics has succeeded.
Quote:
 
Why does this seem to be working as well as it is? Long ago I argued that to gain traction in a liquidity trap, the central bank needed to credibly promise to be irresponsible — that is, convince investors that it would not rein in monetary expansion once the economy was at full employment and inflation was starting to rise. And this is a hard thing to do; no matter what central bankers may say, history shows that they often revert to type at the first opportunity. The examples of successful changes in expectations tend to involve drastic regime changes, like FDR taking us off the gold standard.

I think that most people believe that central banks are irresponsible, as are most economists. This is not a hard thing to do for central banks, as they have been doing it for 40 years. It's unusual that Krugman is admitting that taking the monetary regime of the gold standard was irresponsible though.
Quote:
 
And this is where the tsunami-China moral equivalent of space aliens theory comes in: arguably, the shocks of the past two years have changed Japanese perceptions of what must be done enough to make irresponsibility — or, actually, a serious, sustained commitment to higher inflation — credible, at long last.

Yes, the Japanese need to understand that income and wealth equality must come to an end, and the rich must be able to steal from the poor via inflation.
Quote:
 
What is required is action by the president and Congress: to help homeowners with negative equity and businesses that cannot get credit, to remove the threat of higher tax rates, and reduce the out-year fiscal deficits.

Ah, now we reveal the hand of the pimp that controls the whore. What we need is for the government to cut taxes to the rich and take on more debt (which is repaid by the poor through taxes and inflation). Well, why not. Once you are committed to becoming a Plutocracy, no point stopping half way. Next step, repeal the laws against slavery.
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peter fraser
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genX
11 May 2013, 09:41 AM
Yes, destroying the life savings of your elderly population is certainly good news. Maybe they could take their pensioners, mince them and sell them cheap in cans so the younger generation has something to eat when Abenomics has succeeded.


I think that most people believe that central banks are irresponsible, as are most economists. This is not a hard thing to do for central banks, as they have been doing it for 40 years. It's unusual that Krugman is admitting that taking the monetary regime of the gold standard was irresponsible though.


Yes, the Japanese need to understand that income and wealth equality must come to an end, and the rich must be able to steal from the poor via inflation.


Ah, now we reveal the hand of the pimp that controls the whore. What we need is for the government to cut taxes to the rich and take on more debt (which is repaid by the poor through taxes and inflation). Well, why not. Once you are committed to becoming a Plutocracy, no point stopping half way. Next step, repeal the laws against slavery.
What amazes me is just how ultra right wing you left wingers are.
Edited by peter fraser, 11 May 2013, 10:23 AM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Black Panther
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peter fraser
11 May 2013, 10:22 AM
What amazes me is just how ultra right wing you left wingers are.
Its called desperation. They have been waiting a long time for something that will never happen.

Enough to make one sell any principles one may of had.
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Catweasel
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Catweasel say crikey.

Gung-Ho Entertain up a 7000% and not a peep from sandpit about a bubble.
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genX
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peter fraser
11 May 2013, 10:22 AM
What amazes me is just how ultra right wing you left wingers are.
What amazes me is that you think I am any wing at all. Human beings are always pissing on each other. It annoys me when someone calls it rain.
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