Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
  • 13
Abenomics: Japan's economic revolution will rock our world. BOJ blows big bubble say experts.; Japanese people have a bubble every 50 years. Once Japan does have a bubble they do it really big.
Topic Started: 22 Jan 2013, 12:01 PM (13,762 Views)
Catweasel
Member Avatar


Enjoy The Ride
14 Feb 2013, 12:35 PM
Where do Japanese corporations negotiate the oil price?

I thought there was a futures market! Settled in USD or Yen?

Yes, they may very well be hedged as much as the Koreans and Chinese.

Is this a small shock? I was under the impression Abe is targeting inflation, for the good of all Japanese Mice.

Thankfully, the Japanese bicycle rider is sufficiently hedged against rising oil prices.

Actually, a Japanese the masters in a negotiate a price with a OPEC.

Mouse should consider a volume from a OPEC to a Japan.

But not just a oil. a KEPCO and a TEPCO has a power beyond its wildest imagine.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Catweasel
21 Feb 2013, 12:32 PM
Catweasel say interesting.

Is Japan a poster child for full of the shit or just chin scratchers?

Who in charge of writing new textbook?

SMH?
The Austrians are just doing their usual thing. And Enjoy the ride seems to be a card carrying member.

They are unencumbered by the weight of having to have to actually prove their theories using actual evidence or models.

Its pure ideology, and very right wing ideology at that.

When you hear one talk, you should change the channell. Its a few minutes of your lief you wont get back.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Enjoy The Ride
Member Avatar


Veritas
21 Feb 2013, 04:17 PM
The Austrians are just doing their usual thing. And Enjoy the ride seems to be a card carrying member.

They are unencumbered by the weight of having to have to actually prove their theories using actual evidence or models.

Its pure ideology, and very right wing ideology at that.

When you hear one talk, you should change the channell. Its a few minutes of your lief you wont get back.
Veritas- Are you saying the economic orthodoxy in Japan is science not ideology?

Austrians need only look at countries like Japan and France to know the scientists are wrong. Whole country models!

Japan is doing exactly what the inflationistas (Krugman etc) want, lets see if it works.


Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Enjoy The Ride
21 Feb 2013, 10:50 PM
Veritas- Are you saying the economic orthodoxy in Japan is science not ideology?

Austrians need only look at countries like Japan and France to know the scientists are wrong. Whole country models!

Japan is doing exactly what the inflationistas (Krugman etc) want, lets see if it works.

Ideology backed up by empirical knowledge.

That is the key difference between the Austrians and people like Krugman. Whereas the Austrians just know something is true the Keynseians have models and the benefit of three generations of hard won macro learning that the Austrians ignore. To give you an example, the Austrians have been predicting that broadeing the monetary base in the US would debase the currency and lead to inflation and hyperinflation as well as lead to a melt down in the bond markets. People like Krugman, knew this was wrong and said so all along. And was right. And the Austrians were wrong. Could it be any simpler?

Christine Romer put it best when she wrote:

http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Written%20Version%20of%20Effects%20of%20Fiscal%20Policy.pdf

Quote:
 
The one thing that has disillusioned me is the discussion of fiscal policy. Policymakers and far too many economists seem to be arguing from ideology rather than evidence. As I have described this evening, the evidence is stronger than it has ever been that fiscal policy matters—that fiscal stimulus helps the economy add jobs, and that reducing the budget deficit lowers growth at least in the near term. And yet, this evidence does not seem to be getting through to the legislative process.
That is unacceptable. We are never going to solve our problems if we can’t agree at least on the facts. Evidence-based policymaking is essential if we are ever going to triumph over this recession and deal with our long-run budget problems.


As for Japan, well its been in a liquidity trap for years and inflation targets need to be raised. The same is true of the Eurozone.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Catweasel
Member Avatar


Veritas
22 Feb 2013, 11:59 AM
Ideology backed up by empirical knowledge.

That is the key difference between the Austrians and people like Krugman. Whereas the Austrians just know something is true the Keynseians have models and the benefit of three generations of hard won macro learning that the Austrians ignore. To give you an example, the Austrians have been predicting that broadeing the monetary base in the US would debase the currency and lead to inflation and hyperinflation as well as lead to a melt down in the bond markets. People like Krugman, knew this was wrong and said so all along. And was right. And the Austrians were wrong. Could it be any simpler?

Christine Romer put it best when she wrote:

http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Written%20Version%20of%20Effects%20of%20Fiscal%20Policy.pdf




As for Japan, well its been in a liquidity trap for years and inflation targets need to be raised. The same is true of the Eurozone.
What the evidence can pointy head show about its theory in a 2013? Even if it a Krugman.

Economic not the natural science.

Mouse think it the be scientific.

That part of reason why it get wrap up in a bubbles.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Goading growth from a Japanese bonsai

Stephen Grenville
Published 6:52 AM, 27 Feb 2013

Just about everyone agrees that the Japanese economy has underperformed for over two decades. The astounding rise of China in the same period deepens the hurt. Prime Minister Abe has a three-pronged response: monetary expansion, fiscal stimulus and structural reform. Financial markets showed their support by sharply depreciating the yen and strengthening the share market even before the new prime minister took office, just on the promise of some action. Have the lost decades ended?

For monetary policy, the promise is 'more of the same' but 'this time, with feeling'. Inflation has consistently undershot the Bank of Japan's own objective of 1 per cent. Formalising the target and raising it to 2 per cent still runs up against the basic problem: how to create inflation?

For those brought up with the Milton Friedman doctrine that 'inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon', expanding the money supply will do the job. But the BoJ has tried this already. In fact it was the pioneer of now-fashionable quantitative easing beginning in 2001, filling the banks' balance sheets with surplus liquidity in the hope that they would expand their lending. After five years, the BoJ declared victory and retreated. There was a barely perceptible effect on interest rates and credit remained dormant until, eventually, there was a tiny stirring of economic growth in the mid-2000s.

Some argue that the BoJ was never enthusiastic enough to make QE work. Instead of the short-term government securities they bought, the BoJ is urged to buy private sector securities, directly encouraging businesses to expand. But most businesses have plenty of internally generated funds and spare productive capacity.

The selection process for the new BoJ governor (announced any day now; Haruhiko Kuroda is the front-runner) ensures that he will be a fully committed expansionist, whereas outgoing governor Masaaki Shirakawa has dragged his heels on QE and has been defeatist on boosting inflation. Textbook logic is on Shirakawa's side, but the depreciation in the yen since Abe's victory shows that the exchange rate can be shifted simply by the expectation of different policies.

Provided the magic doesn't wear off, the new regime may be able to keep the exchange rate around its current level, or even manage to depreciate it more without being accused of 'manipulation' by its Group of 20 partners. This would, by itself, be a useful stimulus. In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, the yen appreciated by well over 20 per cent, making Japanese exporters less competitive. With this painful appreciation now reversed simply by the anticipation of Abenomics, the mere arrival of the new regime at the BoJ might, just possibly, be enough to inspire confidence and stir business out of its lethargy.

Prime Minister Abe has promised a fiscal stimulus of 2 per cent of GDP, though there is some double counting so the effect will be a bit smaller.

Fiscal stimulus has a more dependable expansionary impact than QE, but not everyone is enthusiastic. No one is arguing that this modest expenditure is the straw that will break the back of Japanese government debt, but it is a move in the wrong direction. Japanese debt is often quoted as being 230 per cent of GDP, but this is a gross figure and there are large official bond holdings (by the social security fund and the BoJ), so netting these out gives a less dramatic 120 per cent of GDP. While this is still high, the real concern is that it is projected to rise, with the International Monetary Fund arguing that at some stage Japan has to wind back its underlying budget deficit by around 10 per cent of GDP.

Japan is a lightly taxed country by international standards. The GST is 5 per cent compared with an international norm of nearly 20 per cent (although it is scheduled to rise over the next two years to 10 per cent). Thus this fiscal consolidation is not unachievable. But Japan does not have a lot of room (or time) to continue fiscal expansion. The government currently pays less than 1 per cent on its debt, but if debt concerns or higher inflation pushed this up to, say, 3 per cent, the budget would be in serious trouble (and bond holders would make a big capital loss).

That leaves the hardest area: structural reform and deregulation which would instill new dynamism into sclerotic sectors. No one doubts the potential for reform, but no politician knows how to do it while simultaneously getting re-elected. One way to package the necessary disruption might be for Japan to sign up to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which requires participant countries to meet 'platinum standards' of openness for a wide range of behind-the-border regulations. Japan's thickets of protectionism (especially in agriculture) would, however, be difficult to penetrate.

Perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised, or too critical, about the current conjuncture if we recall just how much Japan has had to adapt in the past 25 years. It used to be the fastest-growing OECD economy, with an exchange rate that made exporting easy (300 yen to the dollar, compared with 90 now) and asset prices that promoted national pride and confidence. Remember when the grounds of the Imperial Palace were valued the same as the whole of California?

But that was then and this is now. It's hard to create a spirit of dynamism in an economy with few growth prospects, a shrinking labour force and a huge government debt. Demography has caught up with Japan, limiting flexibility and weighing down the social security system.

Tweaking monetary policy and another shot of fiscal stimulus aren't going to change much. Structural reform, the third element of Abenomics, is hard work. The alternative is more of the genteel stagnation of the past two decades. Even in the lost decades, per capita income crept up and unemployment remained low. Maybe that's not too bad, after all.

Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Japan-China-Shinzo-Abe-BoJ-QE-pd20130226-5A4M8
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Enjoy The Ride
Member Avatar


For those Inflationists, who apparently think currency devaluation is a one way street.

More terrible news(if you can operate a calculator)

Exports down 2.9%

Imports (led by those unfortunate but necessary hydrocarbons) UP 11.9%

That is 8 straight months of trade deficits, longest streak since 1980.

Obviously the rate of currency devaluation is not fast enough, must get that devaluation sweet spot where exports decrease in price faster than imports increase in price. (only Krugman could explain it)

IBTimes.co.uk
Edited by Enjoy The Ride, 21 Mar 2013, 07:10 PM.
Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Enjoy The Ride
21 Mar 2013, 06:44 PM
For those Inflationists, who apparently think currency devaluation is a one way street.

More terrible news(if you can operate a calculator)

Exports down 2.9%

Imports (led by those unfortunate but necessary hydrocarbons) UP 11.9%

That is 8 straight months of trade deficits, longest streak since 1980.

Obviously the rate of currency devaluation is not fast enough, must get that devaluation sweet spot where exports decrease in price faster than imports increase in price. (only Krugman could explain it)
Do you have a link ETR?

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
BoJ could be blowing a big bubble, says expert

PUBLISHED: 5 hours 58 MINUTES AGO
Philip Baker and Vesna Poljak

Highly regarded China expert Andy Xie has warned monetary policy alone can’t solve Japan’s economic growth problem, and thinks the latest round of quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan could end in chaos.

Plans by the BoJ to pump $US1.4 trillion of new cash into its economy – or around 30 per cent of national output – over two years to get their economy moving is a major reason why the Japanese yen is down about 20 per cent against the US dollar since late last year, and the country’s sharemarket up around 40 per cent over the same time frame.

But Mr Xie believes it is not going to solve any of the problems and the better way out for Japan is structural reform to revise productivity.

“What the BoJ is doing is forcing the big Japanese insurance companies and pension funds to go abroad,’’ Mr Xie said. “They are being screwed. With such a huge amount of funds in the Asian region the theory is they have to go to the Nikkei or US treasuries and the hedge funds are front running that. What it means is the yen will collapse like the Russian rouble in 1998. What the central bank is doing is they can’t see the end game, but the end game is chaos.”

Mr Xie doesn’t see the need for emergency measures to solve deflation because the economy is showing signs of self-correcting anyway.

The savings surplus has hurt Japan, Mr Xie said. Japan has a trade deficit, but in two years’ time it will have a current account deficit.

Japan’s problem right now is that the country has not seen this kind of sustained deflation since the 1930s, prompting the radical action by the BoJ. Mr Xie said no other economy does a bubble quite like Japan.

“Japanese people have a bubble once every 50 years. It’s not like Chinese people, they have a bubble every 10 months, but once Japan does have a bubble they do it really big,’’ he said.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/p/national/boj_could_be_blowing_big_bubble_BErwOjQoH6dc7EQkkvj0oJ
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Enjoy The Ride
Member Avatar


Abenomics 6 months in and the Japanese CPI -0.9%, Hmmmmmmm.

That 2% inflation target is looking like a pipedream.

The good news JPY is down around 30% Fuel prices are up by over the magical 2% figure The NIKKEI is up.

Inflation is showing up everywhere but the real economy!

The problem with the Japanese, the BOJ could give every citizen a pallet of Yen and they would hide it under the bed.

Cue the Keynsians, whatever it takes (is still not enough).
Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
  • 13



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy