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Australia's one trick pony is heading out to pasture; Mining boom over, what's the next money maker? Troubling for Australia, there's nothing.
Topic Started: 16 Dec 2012, 11:17 PM (10,373 Views)
Timo
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peter fraser
17 Dec 2012, 12:09 AM
Timo we have been exporting our ores for generations, and that will continue for long after you and I are gone from this earth. there will be some ups and some downs. I fail to see any possible way for demand to fall to insignificant levels with not only China investing in infrastructure, but India as well - that's almost half of the worlds population. The world has never seen anything like this before. Even if india don't buy from us they soak up produce from elsewhere.

We do need to get our dollar down quite a bit, but that could take time. If mining does recede, then our dollar will fall lower much faster, which is what we want. It's almost a Catch 22 in reverse.

The government will do what it has to do to ensure funding of our banks, and interest rates can move lower. There hasn't been one government in the world that hasn't taken whatever action it needed to do to lessen the burden for it's people. If that means the government finding alternate funds for our banks, or guaranteeing their loans, guaranteeing their deposits, reducing interest rates, engineering a fall in the dollar, or any other measure required - they will do that - it's what governments do. They work for the majority, not for you.

I don't get why you don't get that.
Peter, whats not to get? Everyone from Glenn Stevens to Gina Rinehart knows the mining boom is over, that we cant rely on it any longer. China is in for a huge crash and we will be swallowed into that black hole on account of our ignorance and over valued property market.
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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mel
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Timo if they open the immigration floodgates (really open them) there won't be any issue controlling property prices provided they can steer employment towards the building industry. Its the wrong thing to do but it's been shown to work in the past.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Timo
17 Dec 2012, 02:12 PM
Peter, whats not to get? Everyone from Glenn Stevens to Gina Rinehart knows the mining boom is over, that we cant rely on it any longer. China is in for a huge crash and we will be swallowed into that black hole on account of our ignorance and over valued property market.
timo yet again refuses to face reality.

areps.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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peter fraser
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Timo
17 Dec 2012, 02:12 PM
peter fraser
17 Dec 2012, 12:09 AM
Timo we have been exporting our ores for generations, and that will continue for long after you and I are gone from this earth. there will be some ups and some downs. I fail to see any possible way for demand to fall to insignificant levels with not only China investing in infrastructure, but India as well - that's almost half of the worlds population. The world has never seen anything like this before. Even if india don't buy from us they soak up produce from elsewhere.

We do need to get our dollar down quite a bit, but that could take time. If mining does recede, then our dollar will fall lower much faster, which is what we want. It's almost a Catch 22 in reverse.

The government will do what it has to do to ensure funding of our banks, and interest rates can move lower. There hasn't been one government in the world that hasn't taken whatever action it needed to do to lessen the burden for it's people. If that means the government finding alternate funds for our banks, or guaranteeing their loans, guaranteeing their deposits, reducing interest rates, engineering a fall in the dollar, or any other measure required - they will do that - it's what governments do. They work for the majority, not for you.

I don't get why you don't get that.
Peter, whats not to get? Everyone from Glenn Stevens to Gina Rinehart knows the mining boom is over, that we cant rely on it any longer. China is in for a huge crash and we will be swallowed into that black hole on account of our ignorance and over valued property market.
Clearly we disagree - but fair enough.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Timo
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mel
17 Dec 2012, 02:19 PM
Timo if they open the immigration floodgates (really open them) there won't be any issue controlling property prices provided they can steer employment towards the building industry. Its the wrong thing to do but it's been shown to work in the past.
The problem is Mel, Australia's entire infrastructure has buckled under the population we already have, we didn't take advantage of the boom while it lasted, and to open up Australia to immigration won't change the fact we cannot compete globally in any industry? Please name one outside of mining that we could rely on and be competitive in a global market. There's none, workers need to be paid too much to service over-valued property costs.

The last thing we need to do is open Australia up to immigration and end up with the crap quality of life of our neighbors.
timmy
17 Dec 2012, 03:21 PM
timo yet again refuses to face reality.

areps.
And your just an idiot, and yes you are one of the biggest AREPS victims, I'm glad you admit it.
timmy
17 Dec 2012, 10:46 AM
So young and naive.....
So entrenched with negative equity and stupidity
Edited by Timo, 17 Dec 2012, 05:43 PM.
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Timo
17 Dec 2012, 05:40 PM
the fact we cannot compete globally in any industry? Please name one outside of mining that we could rely on and be competitive in a global market.
agriculture and education.

that's two for you fuck knuckle.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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mel
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timmy
17 Dec 2012, 05:48 PM
agriculture
It's almost infuriating we aren't taking advantage of our natural strengths sometimes
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Veritas
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timmy
17 Dec 2012, 05:48 PM
Timo
17 Dec 2012, 05:40 PM
the fact we cannot compete globally in any industry? Please name one outside of mining that we could rely on and be competitive in a global market.
agriculture and education.

that's two for you fuck knuckle.
Be that as it may, its not as if making the transition would be easy.

Far from it. Check out WA for example. The reliance on mining is well documented. But in second place is property. Houses and holes.

Posted Image
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Veritas
17 Dec 2012, 06:08 PM
Be that as it may, its not as if making the transition would be easy.

Far from it. Check out WA for example. The reliance on mining is well documented. But in second place is property. Houses and holes.

Posted Image
why does it need to be a silver bullet that solves everything? that wasn't the question was it.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Veritas
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Here is another doozy. Look how many people rely on the property industry for a living. Its the State's largest employer!

Which brings us back to an old chestnut: A price crash is not possible without a recession but what if like Ireland and Spain, for example, the deterioration of conditions in the housing sector of the economy, precipitates the recession.

Posted Image
timmy
17 Dec 2012, 06:12 PM
Veritas
17 Dec 2012, 06:08 PM
Be that as it may, its not as if making the transition would be easy.

Far from it. Check out WA for example. The reliance on mining is well documented. But in second place is property. Houses and holes.

Posted Image
why does it need to be a silver bullet that solves everything? that wasn't the question was it.
But whether we can "compete internationally" is a secondary issue.

The primary issue is whether we can maintain growth and full employment.
Edited by Veritas, 17 Dec 2012, 06:27 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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