If I had invested $240000 in an index fund and it dropped 25% I would be concerned.
If it was invested in a sector play that is known for it's volatility I would not be concerned at all.
It could just as easily be up 100% from here in October giving a real return of 50% from inception which will more than likely be a far better return than the index or property.
Personally, I would not have invested in a portfolio that is known for it's volatility with only a 12 month horizon, particularly when there is an "expect[ation of] a pull back".
The current portfoilio performance (25% drop in 3 months... imagine what the annualised rate would be), is an indication of a failed speculation, thus far. It would be nice for the portfolio to be up 100% in October, but I am not entirely sure that this is realistic - what have you heard that I don't know about?
It could just as easily be up 100% from here in October giving a real return of 50% from inception which will more than likely be a far better return than the index or property.
Just like Gold.
Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan
A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
Personally, I would not have invested in a portfolio that is known for it's volatility with only a 12 month horizon, particularly when there is an "expect[ation of] a pull back".
The current portfoilio performance (25% drop in 3 months... imagine what the annualised rate would be), is an indication of a failed speculation, thus far. It would be nice for the portfolio to be up 100% in October, but I am not entirely sure that this is realistic - what have you heard that I don't know about?
It is not a 12 month horizon.. The very nature of the portfolio means to me to not get caught up on the month to month performance. The fundamental reasons I chose a precious metal mining portfolio initially have not changed and I expect them to out perform the Melbourne property market.
The portfolio, I believe has a far greater chance of being a $500k portfolio in say 2017 than Melbournes average property price being $1m+ by the same time.
Yes it would be nice for the portfolio to go up 100% from here by October. Will it? I don't know. Again, by its very nature it has more chance than property does.
During the early stages of the GFC property in South Yarra, a premium inner suburb, dropped by more than 30%. Were the buyers in that suburb foolish speculators who lost big time?
Strindberg
6 Apr 2013, 06:42 PM
All of that information is in the public domain and can be assumed to be priced in by the millions of market participants,
Yes the information is in the public domain.. the interpretation of the information is what differs between people.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
The portfolio, I believe has a far greater chance of being a $500k portfolio in say 2017 than Melbournes average property price being $1m+ by the same time.
My interpretation of the same data available to us all...
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Are you able to explain your thought processes behind it?
I aready have in other threads..... they were ignored/dismissed by most. Why would it be any different if I was to post them again here.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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