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Investment Portfolio; Against Melbourne/National Property prices.
Topic Started: 16 Dec 2012, 08:34 AM (25,667 Views)
Poontang
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Olmule
6 Apr 2013, 04:23 AM
your portfolios are taking a bit of a beating mate...
I was expecting a pull back ,id to late March into April..

Timing the market exact is near on impossible

I do however think I will get the trend right and feel reasonably confident that the 12 month review of the portfolios will be good.


As mentioned in another thread, I think Peter Fraser said it.. considering the current situation Gold has not performed as one would expect it to. That being said it did go up $28USD/Oz last night so will be interesting to watch next weeks markets.


Portfolio 1 has a strong Gold Miner bias so has been hammered quite hard, the second not as bad due to being a bit more diverse.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Strindberg
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Below refers to PORTFOLIO 1 - AYN Holding

16 Dec 2012

Quantity - 500000
Purchase price - $18500 ($0.037 each)

17 Jan 2013

Statement by poontang "the original portfolio is void as far as I am concerned."

15 Feb 2013

Quantity - 1500000 (ONE MILLION shares were added to a "void" portfolio)
Purchase price - $52520

23 Feb 2013

Quantity - 1500000

Purchase price - $18500 Suddenly the purchase price has dropped by $34020 implying that he got the additional one million shares for nothing.
Current value - $49500 (the current value of the extra 1million shares is included but their cost is not included)

The share price fell but the current value became nearly 3 times the claimed purchase price.

6 April 2013

Quantity - 1500000

Purchase price - $18500 (still leaving out the cost of the extra million purchased after the portfolio was declared "void")
Current value - $18000 (at $0.012 each of 1500000).

The loss on the AYN shares in today's post is shown as $500 ie $18500 minus $18000. This is based on the cost of 500000, ignoring the cost of the additional 1000000, yet counting the current value of all 1500000. The actual loss on the AYN shares is more than $30k, not the claimed $500 loss. The price of 1.5 million shares fell from 37 cents to 12 cents.







Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Sydneyite
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Poontang
6 Apr 2013, 10:03 AM
I was expecting a pull back ,id to late March into April..

Timing the market exact is near on impossible
Looks to me like you have taken a far bigger hit than a more general, ASX-200 type weighted portfolio would have? The over-all market is only 3-4% of it's high's, and that's not including dividends over that time period.
Edited by Sydneyite, 6 Apr 2013, 11:03 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Poontang
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Strindberg
6 Apr 2013, 10:48 AM
Below refers to PORTFOLIO 1 - AYN Holding

16 Dec 2012

Quantity - 500000
Purchase price - $18500 ($0.037 each)

17 Jan 2013

Statement by poontang "the original portfolio is void as far as I am concerned."

15 Feb 2013

Quantity - 1500000 (ONE MILLION shares were added to a "void" portfolio)
Purchase price - $52520

23 Feb 2013

Quantity - 1500000

Purchase price - $18500 Suddenly the purchase price has dropped by $34020 implying that he got the additional one million shares for nothing.
Current value - $49500 (the current value of the extra 1million shares is included but their cost is not included)

The share price fell but the current value became nearly 3 times the claimed purchase price.

6 April 2013

Quantity - 1500000

Purchase price - $18500 (still leaving out the cost of the extra million purchased after the portfolio was declared "void")
Current value - $18000 (at $0.012 each of 1500000).

The loss on the AYN shares in today's post is shown as $500 ie $18500 minus $18000. This is based on the cost of 500000, ignoring the cost of the additional 1000000, yet counting the current value of all 1500000. The actual loss on the AYN shares is more than $30k, not the claimed $500 loss. The price of 1.5 million shares fell from 37 cents to 12 cents.







Today 1:20AM

Purchase price fro AYN is wrong. WIll rectify when I get back home...




Strindberg
6 Apr 2013, 10:48 AM
Below refers to PORTFOLIO 1 - AYN Holding

16 Dec 2012

Quantity - 500000
Purchase price - $18500 ($0.037 each)
17 Jan 2013

Statement by poontang "the original portfolio is void as far as I am concerned."


15 Feb 2013

Quantity - 1500000 (ONE MILLION shares were added to a "void" portfolio)
Purchase price - $52520

23 Feb 2013

Quantity - 1500000

Purchase price - $18500 Suddenly the purchase price has dropped by $34020 implying that he got the additional one million shares for nothing.
Current value - $49500 (the current value of the extra 1million shares is included but their cost is not included)

The share price fell but the current value became nearly 3 times the claimed purchase price.

6 April 2013

Quantity - 1500000

Purchase price - $18500 (still leaving out the cost of the extra million purchased after the portfolio was declared "void")
Current value - $18000 (at $0.012 each of 1500000).

The loss on the AYN shares in today's post is shown as $500 ie $18500 minus $18000. This is based on the cost of 500000, ignoring the cost of the additional 1000000, yet counting the current value of all 1500000. The actual loss on the AYN shares is more than $30k, not the claimed $500 loss. The price of 1.5 million shares fell from 37 cents to 12 cents.







Portfolio 1 is active again due to all the bitching and complaining about it.

I cheated, blah blah blah... so no excuses for anyone in the future about it.. it will run along side portfolio 2.


The NST price in Portfolio 2 I am pretty sure is wrong as well.

The buy price (per unit) needs to be averaged down to reflect the lower average price, same with AYN and total cost of purchase adjusted.

When I redo the table I mainly focus on the end price, because that is the main issue in the "project"


Sydneyite
6 Apr 2013, 11:03 AM
Looks to me like you have taken a far bigger hit than a more general, ASX-200 type weighted portfolio would have? The over-all market is only 3-4% of it's high's, and that's not including dividends over that time period.
and your point is?

It is no different to the property bulls argument that any drop in price is only a paper loss as the owner has not sold so has not yet lost anything.


Shares fluctuate in price, I can accept that and do not concern myself with short term fluctuations.

Neither portfolio is a "day trading" portfolio.
Edited by Poontang, 6 Apr 2013, 03:18 PM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Poontang
Member Avatar


Sydneyite
6 Apr 2013, 11:03 AM
Looks to me like you have taken a far bigger hit than a more general, ASX-200 type weighted portfolio would have? The over-all market is only 3-4% of it's high's, and that's not including dividends over that time period.
If I have anticipated the future moves of the economies and hence share prices the reverse should hold true.. It should gain more than the index too. This remains to be seen.

Hopefully the sabre rattling from N Korea is just that or it will be a game changer for sure.


Europe is still having issues, latest job figures from US are not good, Canada has just announced a higher unemployment figure as well.

Despite ultra low interest rates and massive amounts of stimulus the world economy is still on shaky ground.

I am looking forward to seeing how the portfolios have done come January 2014 and further out from there.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Trojan
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What this thread has highlighted is no one can predict the future.
Poontang expected his chosen Melbourne median house price to have fallen and gold prices /gold miner shares to have gone up.
It didn't happen the way he expected.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Poontang
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Trojan
6 Apr 2013, 06:21 PM
What this thread has highlighted is no one can predict the future.
Poontang expected his chosen Melbourne median house price to have fallen and gold prices /gold miner shares to have gone up.
It didn't happen the way he expected.
It's been 3 months...

Probably best to wait and see.....
Edited by Poontang, 6 Apr 2013, 06:37 PM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Strindberg
Member Avatar


Poontang
6 Apr 2013, 05:44 PM
If I have anticipated the future moves of the economies and hence share prices the reverse should hold true.. It should gain more than the index too. This remains to be seen.

Hopefully the sabre rattling from N Korea is just that or it will be a game changer for sure.


Europe is still having issues, latest job figures from US are not good, Canada has just announced a higher unemployment figure as well.

Despite ultra low interest rates and massive amounts of stimulus the world economy is still on shaky ground.

I am looking forward to seeing how the portfolios have done come January 2014 and further out from there.
All of that information is in the public domain and can be assumed to be priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available. Each side of all share trading find today's prices agreeable. Only currently unknown information will change prices.

There hasn't been a moment in my lifetime that it has not been possible to enumerate factors having possible dangerous consequences for the future. There are always dangers ahead. For 45 years following WWII there was a cold war threat of complete world wide nuclear annihilation. There was the Korean War, worldwide student uprisings, civil wars throughout Africa, the Balkans wars, ever present Indian/Pakistan hostility, Vietnam/Cambodian/Laos wars, Arab/Israeli conflict, 18% interest rates, OPEC quadrupling the price of oil, Iran, Iraq etc etc.

Yet the world continued to prosper and wealth per capita continued to grow. By comparison to times past, the world presently seems calm and prosperous. But I can see that it is always possible to find factors to support a bearish view. Perhaps it's a personality issue which dictates the factors we choose to form our outlook.

Anyway, if I had opened a quarter million dollar share portfolio 3 months ago and it was now down 25% I would call it a disaster.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Poontang
Member Avatar


Strindberg
6 Apr 2013, 06:42 PM


Anyway, if I had opened a quarter million dollar share portfolio 3 months ago and it was now down 25% I would call it a disaster.
If I had invested $240000 in an index fund and it dropped 25% I would be concerned.

If it was invested in a sector play that is known for it's volatility I would not be concerned at all.

It could just as easily be up 100% from here in October giving a real return of 50% from inception which will more than likely be a far better return than the index or property.

There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trojan
Default APF Avatar


Poontang
6 Apr 2013, 07:15 PM
If I had invested $240000 in an index fund and it dropped 25% I would be concerned.

If it was invested in a sector play that is known for it's volatility I would not be concerned at all.

It could just as easily be up 100% from here in October giving a real return of 50% from inception which will more than likely be a far better return than the index or property.
I'm with Strindberg.
No matter what spin you put on it, any investment which drops 25% in 3 months, in hindsight, was a bad investment.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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