Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Investment Portfolio; Against Melbourne/National Property prices.
Topic Started: 16 Dec 2012, 08:34 AM (25,664 Views)
Sydneyite
Member Avatar


miw
27 Apr 2013, 05:03 PM
+1

We always seem to forget about all the things we were worried about or hoping for 10 years ago that didn't pan out. Then we just assume that the times were benign if the markets rose and talk as if that the way things worked out were somehow inevitable. I guess if you believe in predestination they were inevitable, but what matters is that nobody had a clue how it would pan out at the time.

Under the EMH, at any given time, the most probable price of a security in 1 days' time, 1 months' time and 1 years' time is todays' price, inflated or deflated by todays' market deflator.

In my experience, the EMH works most of the time, modulo a bit of market psychology that seems to make momentum work over relatively short timescales. (but nobody really knows why)
Some very good points. The volatility inherent in equity market / stock valuations always amazes me - I find there is *far* more volatility in the capital values than there is in the generated dividend return, in my experience. In fact, I have a concrete example of this from a personal, privately managed diversified stock portfolio. It represents an amount invested in late 2006/early 2007, that has been left pretty much untouched in that time - ie no new capital added or withdrawn, other than net (not gross) dividend re-investment. I've scaled the numbers down from my spreadsheet to represent the gross dividend income (including franking credits), based on an original investment of $100k. The % return figure is the % that the income represents of the original (scaled) amount invested, and the Capital Value Change % shows the end of (financial) year change in value of the portfolio:

As you can see, the end result is that while the returns ended being pretty steady, with the biggest fall in earnings being about -20% in FY 09/10 - the height of the post-GFC market crash, the capital value of the portfolio fluctuated by as much as -33% down and +30% up, and numerous big moved in between.

What does this all mean? I think it means that in *most* cases any excessive panic, or optimism, about likely future returns being anticipated by "the market" will be wrong! I would also note that dividend returns this year are already above the previous high for this portfolio during the peak years of FY 07/08/09, and there is still a couple of months of income yet to be accrued - including some of the resource companies like WPL etc who are bumping dividends significantly at the moment as they scale back some of their investment plans. Yet capital values are still broadly 25% below the 07 market peak. So the highest yield ever from the Aussie market is currently able to be bought at a 25% discount to previously, at a time when yields from most other asset classes, including cash, are well below what they were in 2007. It's all about fear and confidence isn't it?

PS: it's also worth noting that the above does not account for / allow for retained earnings that are being re-invested in the underlying businesses, which always has the potential to drive share price increases (or falls!) as well.


$100k Portfolio
YearIncome % Return on original capitalCapital Value % Change
FY 07/08$51385.14%0%
FY 08/09$51175.12%-33%
FY 09/10$39933.99%+20%
FY 10/11$46754.68%+11%
FY 11/12$48594.86%-9%
FY 12/13$52935.30%+30%
Edited by Sydneyite, 27 Apr 2013, 08:14 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Poontang
Member Avatar


Portfolio 1

20Kg Silver Bullion @ $801.77Kg $16035
Cash $19759
Shares $134311

Portfolio Value at Start $240000
Portfolio Current Value $170105



Portfolio up slightly on last update

No changes made..



Portfolio 2

Share Portfolio $397333
Cash $13829
Total $411162

Up a little on last update.

No Changes made..
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Poontang
Member Avatar


Changes made to the portfolios..

Portfolio 1 EPX, IMF and ABY out

More FML purchased, TRY added to portfolio


Portfolio 2

ABY, AVB, DUE, EHL, and IMF out

More FML, NST

SLR added


Will update portfolios either tonight or or tomorrow.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Poontang
Member Avatar


Share Code

AYN

BKP

FML

GOR

MXR

NST

SBM

TRY
Quantity

1500000

830000

286451

34154

1000000

20000

20000

20000
Current Price

.012

.003

.015

.06

.004

.67

.605

1.775
Current Value $


28000

2490

42097

2049

4000

13400

12100

35500




Shares $139636
Silver $15920
Cash $17354

Total $172910
Start $240000
Share Code

AYN

BKP

BPT

CKF

CTN

EPX

EVN

FML

GOR

KRM

MAD

MXR

NCM

NST

PIO

SAR

SBM

SLR

TGA

TSM
Quantity


555555

1666666

13793

13793

19607

11267

12084

3606060

160000

11695

27777

2500000

1000

75000

714284

52631

14652

40000

9706

100000

Current Price

.012

.003

1.21

1.72

1.02

1.76

.79

.015

.06

.415

.465

.004

15.12

.67

.023

.145

.605

.765

2.31

.28
Current Value $


6667

5000

16690

23724

19999

19830

9546

54090

9600

4853

12916

10000

15120

50250

16529

7631

8864

30600

22420

28000



Shares $372229
Cash $8614

Total $380843
Edited by Poontang, 26 May 2013, 10:08 PM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Poontang
Member Avatar


Share Code

AYN

BKP

FML

GOR

MXR

NST

SBM

TRY
Quantity


1500000

830000

2806451

34154

1000000

20000

20000

20000

Current Price

.012

.005

.012

.051

.003

.76

.67

1.895
Current Value $




28000

4150

33677

1742

3000

15200

13400

37900





20Kg Silver $15450
Cash $17354
Total $169873
Share Code

AYN

BKP

BPT

CKF

CTN

EPX

EVN

FML

GOR

KRM

MAD

MXR

NCM

NST

PIO

SAR

SBM

SLR

TGA

TSM
Quantity

555555

1666666

13793

13793

19607

11267

12084

3606060

160000

11695

27777

2500000

1000

75000

714284

52631

14652

40000

9706

100000
Current Price

.012

.05

1.18

1.66

.96

1.74

.795

.012

.051

.43

.33

.003

11.57

.76

.015

.155

.67

.835

2.09

.275
Current Value $

6667

8333

16276

22896

18823

11269

9607

43273

8160

5029

9166

7500

11570

57000

10714

8158

9817

33400

20286

27500


Cash $9196 Including $582 Dividends from TGA
Shares $345444
Total $354640
Edited by Poontang, 16 Jun 2013, 04:10 PM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Poontang
Member Avatar


Portfolio 1

Shares $155412
20Kg Silver @ $734.9 $14698
Cash $32084* (After TRY sale 26/06/13)
Total $187464

Improvement stems from nice jump on FML


Portfolio 2

Shares $354340
Cash $9196
Total $359536

Again, Improvement stems from FML's jump.


EDIT: 26/06/13
Sold 10000 TRY @$1.475 $14730 Portfolio 1.
AYN SPP Has an entitlement of 3000000 @.005 and order for any unsold shares in the placement can be made. Ordering an additional 3000000 through the SPP. Outcome allotment will be noted when they are available. If extra is not allocated $15000 will return to Cash totoal or will be used to purchase different shares.
An option to buy 1 for 2 subscribed to for .01 is on offer too, so if the 6M shares are subscribed an additional 3M can be purchased later @ 1 cent each.
Edited by Poontang, 26 Jun 2013, 05:16 PM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trojan
Default APF Avatar


Poontang
6 Apr 2013, 07:15 PM
It could just as easily be up 100% from here in October giving a real return of 50% from inception which will more than likely be a far better return than the index or property.
I don't like your chances of your portfolio realising a real return of 50% from inception by October.
In fact I don't like your chances of just breaking even.
Correct me if I am wrong - portfolio 1 started at $240k and portfolio 2 at $496k?
Edited by Trojan, 28 Jun 2013, 07:39 PM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Poontang
Member Avatar


Trojan
28 Jun 2013, 07:37 PM
I don't like your chances of your portfolio realising a real return of 50% from inception by October.
In fact I don't like your chances of just breaking even.
Correct me if I am wrong - portfolio 1 started at $240k and portfolio 2 at $496k?
If gold does not make any sort of decent comeback before year end then the portfolio(s) will be down. So what. It will carry on into next year. Neither are day trading portfolios and investing is for the longer term.

Portfolio 2 is more like $490k because a tax rebate on the interest prepaid on the loan would apply.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Strindberg
Member Avatar


Poontang
22 Jun 2013, 10:39 PM
Portfolio 1

Shares $155412
20Kg Silver @ $734.9 $14698
Cash $32084* (After TRY sale 26/06/13)
Total $187464

Improvement stems from nice jump on FML


Portfolio 2

Shares $354340
Cash $9196
Total $359536

Again, Improvement stems from FML's jump.


EDIT: 26/06/13
Sold 10000 TRY @$1.475 $14730 Portfolio 1.
AYN SPP Has an entitlement of 3000000 @.005 and order for any unsold shares in the placement can be made. Ordering an additional 3000000 through the SPP. Outcome allotment will be noted when they are available. If extra is not allocated $15000 will return to Cash totoal or will be used to purchase different shares.
An option to buy 1 for 2 subscribed to for .01 is on offer too, so if the 6M shares are subscribed an additional 3M can be purchased later @ 1 cent each.
I'm curious about how your portfolio 1 has risen since your last update of 16 June.

Below is the last price quoted by you for each of the 8 shares, followed by the current price and percentage change.

AYN 0.012 0.012 0.0% (shares suspended - certain to return lower, if they ever trade again)

BKP 0.005 0.003 -40%

FML 0.012 0.014 +17%

GOR 0.051 0.043 -16%

MXR 0.003 0.002 -33%

NST 0.760 0.585 -23%

SBM 0.670 0.450 -33%

TRY 1.895 1.530 -19% (you sold 10000 at 1.475, which is a fall of 22% from the 16 June price).

Only the FML has risen, one is suspended, and the other 6 have fallen since 16 June, your last update. I honestly don't see where the rise from $169873 (June 16) to $187464 has come from.

Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Poontang
Member Avatar


Strindberg
29 Jun 2013, 11:36 AM
I'm curious about how your portfolio 1 has risen since your last update of 16 June.

Below is the last price quoted by you for each of the 8 shares, followed by the current price and percentage change.

AYN 0.012 0.012 0.0% (shares suspended - certain to return lower, if they ever trade again)

BKP 0.005 0.003 -40%

FML 0.012 0.014 +17%

GOR 0.051 0.043 -16%

MXR 0.003 0.002 -33%

NST 0.760 0.585 -23%

SBM 0.670 0.450 -33%

TRY1.895 1.530 -19% (you sold 10000 at 1.475, which is a fall of 22% from the 16 June price).

Only the FML has risen, one is suspended, and the other 6 have fallen since 16 June, your last update. I honestly don't see where the rise from $169873 (June 16) to $187464 has come from.
I have not run the numbers this weekend but no doubt it is back down again from last updates rise.

FML last update were .019 Can not remember all the others off hand.

AYN have the finance in place now and the SPP is happening.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
ZetaBoards gives you all the tools to create a successful discussion community.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy