We always seem to forget about all the things we were worried about or hoping for 10 years ago that didn't pan out. Then we just assume that the times were benign if the markets rose and talk as if that the way things worked out were somehow inevitable. I guess if you believe in predestination they were inevitable, but what matters is that nobody had a clue how it would pan out at the time.
Under the EMH, at any given time, the most probable price of a security in 1 days' time, 1 months' time and 1 years' time is todays' price, inflated or deflated by todays' market deflator.
In my experience, the EMH works most of the time, modulo a bit of market psychology that seems to make momentum work over relatively short timescales. (but nobody really knows why)
Some very good points. The volatility inherent in equity market / stock valuations always amazes me - I find there is *far* more volatility in the capital values than there is in the generated dividend return, in my experience. In fact, I have a concrete example of this from a personal, privately managed diversified stock portfolio. It represents an amount invested in late 2006/early 2007, that has been left pretty much untouched in that time - ie no new capital added or withdrawn, other than net (not gross) dividend re-investment. I've scaled the numbers down from my spreadsheet to represent the gross dividend income (including franking credits), based on an original investment of $100k. The % return figure is the % that the income represents of the original (scaled) amount invested, and the Capital Value Change % shows the end of (financial) year change in value of the portfolio:
As you can see, the end result is that while the returns ended being pretty steady, with the biggest fall in earnings being about -20% in FY 09/10 - the height of the post-GFC market crash, the capital value of the portfolio fluctuated by as much as -33% down and +30% up, and numerous big moved in between.
What does this all mean? I think it means that in *most* cases any excessive panic, or optimism, about likely future returns being anticipated by "the market" will be wrong! I would also note that dividend returns this year are already above the previous high for this portfolio during the peak years of FY 07/08/09, and there is still a couple of months of income yet to be accrued - including some of the resource companies like WPL etc who are bumping dividends significantly at the moment as they scale back some of their investment plans. Yet capital values are still broadly 25% below the 07 market peak. So the highest yield ever from the Aussie market is currently able to be bought at a 25% discount to previously, at a time when yields from most other asset classes, including cash, are well below what they were in 2007. It's all about fear and confidence isn't it?
PS: it's also worth noting that the above does not account for / allow for retained earnings that are being re-invested in the underlying businesses, which always has the potential to drive share price increases (or falls!) as well.
Portfolio Value at Start $240000 Portfolio Current Value $170105
Portfolio up slightly on last update
No changes made..
Portfolio 2
Share Portfolio $397333 Cash $13829 Total $411162
Up a little on last update.
No Changes made..
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Will update portfolios either tonight or or tomorrow.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Shares $155412 20Kg Silver @ $734.9 $14698 Cash $32084* (After TRY sale 26/06/13) Total $187464
Improvement stems from nice jump on FML
Portfolio 2
Shares $354340 Cash $9196 Total $359536
Again, Improvement stems from FML's jump.
EDIT: 26/06/13 Sold 10000 TRY @$1.475 $14730 Portfolio 1. AYN SPP Has an entitlement of 3000000 @.005 and order for any unsold shares in the placement can be made. Ordering an additional 3000000 through the SPP. Outcome allotment will be noted when they are available. If extra is not allocated $15000 will return to Cash totoal or will be used to purchase different shares. An option to buy 1 for 2 subscribed to for .01 is on offer too, so if the 6M shares are subscribed an additional 3M can be purchased later @ 1 cent each.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
It could just as easily be up 100% from here in October giving a real return of 50% from inception which will more than likely be a far better return than the index or property.
I don't like your chances of your portfolio realising a real return of 50% from inception by October. In fact I don't like your chances of just breaking even. Correct me if I am wrong - portfolio 1 started at $240k and portfolio 2 at $496k?
I don't like your chances of your portfolio realising a real return of 50% from inception by October. In fact I don't like your chances of just breaking even. Correct me if I am wrong - portfolio 1 started at $240k and portfolio 2 at $496k?
If gold does not make any sort of decent comeback before year end then the portfolio(s) will be down. So what. It will carry on into next year. Neither are day trading portfolios and investing is for the longer term.
Portfolio 2 is more like $490k because a tax rebate on the interest prepaid on the loan would apply.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Shares $155412 20Kg Silver @ $734.9 $14698 Cash $32084* (After TRY sale 26/06/13) Total $187464
Improvement stems from nice jump on FML
Portfolio 2
Shares $354340 Cash $9196 Total $359536
Again, Improvement stems from FML's jump.
EDIT: 26/06/13 Sold 10000 TRY @$1.475 $14730 Portfolio 1. AYN SPP Has an entitlement of 3000000 @.005 and order for any unsold shares in the placement can be made. Ordering an additional 3000000 through the SPP. Outcome allotment will be noted when they are available. If extra is not allocated $15000 will return to Cash totoal or will be used to purchase different shares. An option to buy 1 for 2 subscribed to for .01 is on offer too, so if the 6M shares are subscribed an additional 3M can be purchased later @ 1 cent each.
I'm curious about how your portfolio 1 has risen since your last update of 16 June.
Below is the last price quoted by you for each of the 8 shares, followed by the current price and percentage change.
AYN 0.012 0.012 0.0% (shares suspended - certain to return lower, if they ever trade again)
BKP 0.005 0.003 -40%
FML 0.012 0.014 +17%
GOR 0.051 0.043 -16%
MXR 0.003 0.002 -33%
NST 0.760 0.585 -23%
SBM 0.670 0.450 -33%
TRY 1.895 1.530 -19% (you sold 10000 at 1.475, which is a fall of 22% from the 16 June price).
Only the FML has risen, one is suspended, and the other 6 have fallen since 16 June, your last update. I honestly don't see where the rise from $169873 (June 16) to $187464 has come from.
I'm curious about how your portfolio 1 has risen since your last update of 16 June.
Below is the last price quoted by you for each of the 8 shares, followed by the current price and percentage change.
AYN 0.012 0.012 0.0% (shares suspended - certain to return lower, if they ever trade again)
BKP 0.005 0.003 -40%
FML 0.012 0.014 +17%
GOR 0.051 0.043 -16%
MXR 0.003 0.002 -33%
NST 0.760 0.585 -23%
SBM 0.670 0.450 -33%
TRY1.895 1.530 -19% (you sold 10000 at 1.475, which is a fall of 22% from the 16 June price).
Only the FML has risen, one is suspended, and the other 6 have fallen since 16 June, your last update. I honestly don't see where the rise from $169873 (June 16) to $187464 has come from.
I have not run the numbers this weekend but no doubt it is back down again from last updates rise.
FML last update were .019 Can not remember all the others off hand.
AYN have the finance in place now and the SPP is happening.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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