All of that information is in the public domain and can be assumed to be priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available. Each side of all share trading find today's prices agreeable. Only currently unknown information will change prices.
There hasn't been a moment in my lifetime that it has not been possible to enumerate factors having possible dangerous consequences for the future. There are always dangers ahead. For 45 years following WWII there was a cold war threat of complete world wide nuclear annihilation. There was the Korean War, worldwide student uprisings, civil wars throughout Africa, the Balkans wars, ever present Indian/Pakistan hostility, Vietnam/Cambodian/Laos wars, Arab/Israeli conflict, 18% interest rates, OPEC quadrupling the price of oil, Iran, Iraq etc etc.
Yet the world continued to prosper and wealth per capita continued to grow. By comparison to times past, the world presently seems calm and prosperous. But I can see that it is always possible to find factors to support a bearish view. Perhaps it's a personality issue which dictates the factors we choose to form our outlook.
Anyway, if I had opened a quarter million dollar share portfolio 3 months ago and it was now down 25% I would call it a disaster.
Wow.
Strindberg, even for you, that is a remarkably misconceived reflection of "efficient markets hypothesis":
- Just what evidence do you have... 1) "that all of that evidence is in the public domain" 2) that all such evidence is priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available ...???
Strindberg, even for you, that is a remarkably misconceived reflection of "efficient markets hypothesis":
- Just what evidence do you have... 1) "that all of that evidence is in the public domain" 2) that all such evidence is priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available ...???
That the best you have?
Firstly, when you use attributable quotation marks it's dishonest to make up the words that you place inside them.
I made no reference to "evidence" whatever in my post. On that basis alone it would be appropriate to dismiss both of your questions as bullshit.
However, being the agreeable fellow that I am, I'll respond.
What I wrote was that the "information" referred to by poontang is in the public domain. Poontang referred to sabre rattling from N Korea, Europe having issues, job figures from Canada and the US, ultra low interest rates and massive amounts of stimulus. Your implicit suggestion that those factors are secrets and your asking me for "evidence" that those factors are in the public domain indicates that you don't get around much.
On question (2), I haven't the time or inclination to enumerate and identify all the economic market participants but I confidently assert that there are millions of them, and that the vast bulk of the transactions by value are undertaken by full time professionals with massive information resources and available funds. You are welcome to imagine otherwise.
Yes I believe in the efficient market hypothesis, certainly in its "weak" and "semi-strong" form. This is not to say there is no uncertainty about the future. Of course, poontang may have some insider information on which he bases his investments. He can win that way or by luck.
Yes I believe in the efficient market hypothesis, certainly in its "weak" and "semi-strong" form. This is not to say there is no uncertainty about the future. Of course, poontang may have some insider information on which he bases his investments. He can win that way or by luck.
So if it falls flat, I was wrong.. It it does well I must have had insider information or was just lucky?
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
The portfolio, I believe has a far greater chance of being a $500k portfolio in say 2017 than Melbournes average property price being $1m+ by the same time.
All you are pointing to is which portfolio is more volatile and higher risk. A person also has more chance of doubling their money in 1 minute at the casino (just under 50% chance) than property or your share portfolio. On the other hand, the chances of losing very big is also present in the casino option. And the fact your portfolio lost 25% in 3 months proves you chose a high risk and volatile share portfolio.
Edit: I still find it amazing you managed to lose on such a rigged comparison. If you subtract how much rent a person paid if they invested in a share portfolio instead of a home, the losses are even greater!
Portfolio Value at Start $240000 Portfolio Current Value $183853
In a hurry, will reset all columns next post...
I am not a licensed financial advisor. These are not recommendations, and always seek professional advice before investing.
Poontang
25 Jan 2013, 05:17 PM
Portfolio
Share Code
ABY
AVB
AYN
BKP
BPT
CKF
CTN
DUE
EHL
EPX
EVN
FML
GOR
IMF
KRM
MAD
MXR
NCM
NST
PIO
SAR
SBM
TGA
TSM
Quantity
43000
229885
555555
1666666
13793
13793
19607
9478
33057
11267
12084
606060
160000
11235
11695
27777
2500000
1000
47094
714284
52631
14652
9706
100000
Buy Price
$0.465
$0.087
$0.036
$0.006
$1.45
$1.45
$1.025
$2.11
$0.605
$1.775
$1.655
$0.033
$0.125
$1.78
$0.855
$0.72
$0.004
$21.56
$1.004
$0.028
$0.38
$1.365
$2.06
$0.20
Current Price
$0.415
$0.061
$0.012
$0.004
$1.45
$1.835
$1.085
$2.39
$0.58
$1.92
$1.315
$0.019
$0.093
$1.86
$0.575
$0.69
$0.003
$19.53
$0.89
$0.030
$0.255
$1.04
$2.06
$0.30
Current Value $
17845
14023
6667
6667
20000
25310
21274
22652
19173
21633
15890
11515
14880
20897
6725
19166
7500
19530
41914
21429
13421
15238
19995
30000
Original Portfolio Value $476500 Loan* $ 19625 Total Original $496125
Cash $13829 Current Portfolio Value $447173
Prepaid Interest Investment Loan $19625*
No dividends declared, no trades made.
I am not a licensed financial advisor, these are not recommendations and you should seek professional advice before investing. Using figures from an anonymous blogger on an internet forum is not professional financial advice, it is you being stupid
Current Values are rounded to dollar amount < $0.50 rounded down =/> $0.50 rounded up.
Greensborough 3088 Property Prices 12 months to November 2012
HOUSES Greensborough Median Prices $488,000
Domain dot com dot au
They are up a little on last weeks figures... Portfolio 1 might take another knock tomorrow after Friday nights crunch on Gold/silver...
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
They are up a little on last weeks figures... Portfolio 1 might take another knock tomorrow after Friday nights crunch on Gold/silver...
AYN proposing a Capital Raising...
Quote:
Level 1, 50 Kings Park Road Phone: +61 8 9476 3000 ASX Code: AYN West Perth Western Australia 6005 Fax: +61 8 9322 8192 www.alcyone.com.au Email: info@alcyone.com.au ASX ANNOUNCEMENT & MEDIA RELEASE 15 April 2013 Alcyone to Recapitalise Balance Sheet with $14m Capital Raising Alcyone proposing to raise up to A$14M through a 3-for-2 non-renounceable pro-rata entitlements issue at 0.6c per share plus a 1-for-2 free attaching July 2015 option exercisable at 1c per share.
Patersons Securities Limited appointed as Corporate Adviser and Lead Manager to the issue.
New simplified funding framework and well capitalized balance sheet–Up to A$14M straight equity with a A$10M rolling pre-pay facility.
Raising will enable pay down of outstanding debt and fund operational improvements to achieve annual silver production in excess of 1Moz.
Revamped board and management led by new Chairman, Dr Paul D’Sylva to implement recapitalisation and operational improvement program.
The Company’s securities will remain suspended from trading on ASX until the proposed entitlements issue is completed.
The investment portfolios will take part in the raising as the medium to long term prospects for Silver are good.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Portfolio Value at Start $240000 Portfolio Current Value $168686
I am not a licensed financial advisor. These are not recommendations, and always seek professional advice before investing.
Poontang
11 Jan 2013, 06:16 AM
Share Code
ABY
AVB
AYN
BKP
BPT
CKF
CTN
DUE
EHL
EPX
EVN
FML
GOR
IMF
KRM
MAD
MXR
NCM
NST
PIO
SAR
SBM
TGA
TSM
Quantity
43000
229885
555555
1666666
13793
13793
19607
9478
33057
11267
12084
606060
160000
11235
11695
27777
2500000
1000
47094
714284
52631
14652
9706
100000
Buy Price
$0.465
$0.087
$0.036
$0.006
$1.45
$1.45
$1.025
$2.11
$0.605
$1.775
$1.655
$0.033
$0.125
$1.78
$0.885
$0.72
$0.004
$21.56
$1.004
$0.028
$0.38
$1.365
$2.06
$0.20
Current Price
$0.34
$0.058
$0.012
$0.005
$1.40
$1.86
$1.03
$2.47
$0.49
$1.86
$0.995
$0.018
$0.07
$1.895
$0.53
$0.675
$0.003
$17.05
$0.765
$0.028
$0.15
$0.625
$2.02
$0.275
Current Value $
14620
13333
6667
8333
19310
25655
20195
23411
16198
20957
12024
10909
11200
21290
6198
18749
7500
17050
36027
20000
7895
9158
19606
27500
Share Portfolio Total $476500 Pre Paid Interest on loan 12 months in advance @ 7.65% $19625 Total $496125
Greensborough is the suburb picked.
Weekly Rent is $430pw $1849pm
House price $480000 + Stamps + Fees $498000
$240000k Deposit $258000 Loan @ 5.5% Fixed 3 Years.
Loan Repayment $1584 per month Interest Component $1182 per month
NFI what happened with column headings...
I am not a licensed financial advisor, these are not recommendations and you should seek professional advice before investing. Using figures from an anonymous blogger on an internet forum is not professional financial advice, it is you being stupid
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
All of that information is in the public domain and can be assumed to be priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available. Each side of all share trading find today's prices agreeable. Only currently unknown information will change prices.
There hasn't been a moment in my lifetime that it has not been possible to enumerate factors having possible dangerous consequences for the future. There are always dangers ahead. For 45 years following WWII there was a cold war threat of complete world wide nuclear annihilation. There was the Korean War, worldwide student uprisings, civil wars throughout Africa, the Balkans wars, ever present Indian/Pakistan hostility, Vietnam/Cambodian/Laos wars, Arab/Israeli conflict, 18% interest rates, OPEC quadrupling the price of oil, Iran, Iraq etc etc.
+1
We always seem to forget about all the things we were worried about or hoping for 10 years ago that didn't pan out. Then we just assume that the times were benign if the markets rose and talk as if that the way things worked out were somehow inevitable. I guess if you believe in predestination they were inevitable, but what matters is that nobody had a clue how it would pan out at the time.
Under the EMH, at any given time, the most probable price of a security in 1 days' time, 1 months' time and 1 years' time is todays' price, inflated or deflated by todays' market deflator.
In my experience, the EMH works most of the time, modulo a bit of market psychology that seems to make momentum work over relatively short timescales. (but nobody really knows why)
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
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