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Investment Portfolio; Against Melbourne/National Property prices.
Topic Started: 16 Dec 2012, 08:34 AM (25,665 Views)
nipa hut
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Strindberg
6 Apr 2013, 06:42 PM
All of that information is in the public domain and can be assumed to be priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available. Each side of all share trading find today's prices agreeable. Only currently unknown information will change prices.

There hasn't been a moment in my lifetime that it has not been possible to enumerate factors having possible dangerous consequences for the future. There are always dangers ahead. For 45 years following WWII there was a cold war threat of complete world wide nuclear annihilation. There was the Korean War, worldwide student uprisings, civil wars throughout Africa, the Balkans wars, ever present Indian/Pakistan hostility, Vietnam/Cambodian/Laos wars, Arab/Israeli conflict, 18% interest rates, OPEC quadrupling the price of oil, Iran, Iraq etc etc.

Yet the world continued to prosper and wealth per capita continued to grow. By comparison to times past, the world presently seems calm and prosperous. But I can see that it is always possible to find factors to support a bearish view. Perhaps it's a personality issue which dictates the factors we choose to form our outlook.

Anyway, if I had opened a quarter million dollar share portfolio 3 months ago and it was now down 25% I would call it a disaster.
Wow.

Strindberg, even for you, that is a remarkably misconceived reflection of "efficient markets hypothesis":

- Just what evidence do you have...
1) "that all of that evidence is in the public domain"
2) that all such evidence is priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available
...???
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Strindberg
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nipa hut
7 Apr 2013, 01:58 PM
Wow.

Strindberg, even for you, that is a remarkably misconceived reflection of "efficient markets hypothesis":

- Just what evidence do you have...
1) "that all of that evidence is in the public domain"
2) that all such evidence is priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available
...???
That the best you have?

Firstly, when you use attributable quotation marks it's dishonest to make up the words that you place inside them.

I made no reference to "evidence" whatever in my post. On that basis alone it would be appropriate to dismiss both of your questions as bullshit.

However, being the agreeable fellow that I am, I'll respond.

What I wrote was that the "information" referred to by poontang is in the public domain. Poontang referred to sabre rattling from N Korea, Europe having issues, job figures from Canada and the US, ultra low interest rates and massive amounts of stimulus. Your implicit suggestion that those factors are secrets and your asking me for "evidence" that those factors are in the public domain indicates that you don't get around much.

On question (2), I haven't the time or inclination to enumerate and identify all the economic market participants but I confidently assert that there are millions of them, and that the vast bulk of the transactions by value are undertaken by full time professionals with massive information resources and available funds. You are welcome to imagine otherwise.

Yes I believe in the efficient market hypothesis, certainly in its "weak" and "semi-strong" form. This is not to say there is no uncertainty about the future. Of course, poontang may have some insider information on which he bases his investments. He can win that way or by luck.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Poontang
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Strindberg
7 Apr 2013, 04:12 PM


Yes I believe in the efficient market hypothesis, certainly in its "weak" and "semi-strong" form. This is not to say there is no uncertainty about the future. Of course, poontang may have some insider information on which he bases his investments. He can win that way or by luck.
So if it falls flat, I was wrong.. It it does well I must have had insider information or was just lucky?
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Trojan
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Poontang
7 Apr 2013, 12:32 PM
The portfolio, I believe has a far greater chance of being a $500k portfolio in say 2017 than Melbournes average property price being $1m+ by the same time.
All you are pointing to is which portfolio is more volatile and higher risk.
A person also has more chance of doubling their money in 1 minute at the casino (just under 50% chance) than property or your share portfolio.
On the other hand, the chances of losing very big is also present in the casino option.
And the fact your portfolio lost 25% in 3 months proves you chose a high risk and volatile share portfolio.

Edit: I still find it amazing you managed to lose on such a rigged comparison. If you subtract how much rent a person paid if they invested in a share portfolio instead of a home, the losses are even greater!
Edited by Trojan, 7 Apr 2013, 06:15 PM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Poontang
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Poontang
16 Dec 2012, 08:34 AM
Share Code

SBM

NST

EPX

FML

IMF

AYN

ABY

BKP

MXR

GOR

OPP

$1.68

$1.415

$1.855

$0.031

$1.665

$0.037

$0.48

$0.006

$0.005

$0.012
Quantity

20000

20000

15000

806451

15000

1500000

20000

830000

1000000

34154
Current Value

$20800

$17800

$28800

$15323

$27900

$18000

$8300

$3320

$3000

$3176
Current Price

$1.04

$0.89

$1.92

$0.019

$1.86

$0.012

$0.415

$0.006

$0.004

$0.093
 



20Kg Silver Bullion @ $883.75Kg $17675
Cash $ 19759
Cash 2 $0


Portfolio Value at Start $240000
Portfolio Current Value $183853


In a hurry, will reset all columns next post...


I am not a licensed financial advisor. These are not recommendations, and always seek professional advice before investing.

Poontang
25 Jan 2013, 05:17 PM
Portfolio
Share Code

ABY

AVB

AYN

BKP

BPT

CKF

CTN

DUE

EHL

EPX

EVN

FML

GOR

IMF

KRM

MAD

MXR

NCM

NST

PIO

SAR

SBM

TGA

TSM
Quantity

43000

229885

555555

1666666

13793

13793

19607

9478

33057

11267

12084

606060

160000

11235

11695

27777

2500000

1000

47094

714284

52631

14652

9706

100000
Buy Price



$0.465

$0.087

$0.036

$0.006

$1.45

$1.45

$1.025

$2.11

$0.605

$1.775

$1.655

$0.033

$0.125

$1.78

$0.855

$0.72

$0.004

$21.56

$1.004

$0.028

$0.38

$1.365

$2.06

$0.20


Current Price

$0.415

$0.061

$0.012

$0.004

$1.45

$1.835

$1.085

$2.39

$0.58

$1.92

$1.315

$0.019

$0.093

$1.86

$0.575

$0.69

$0.003

$19.53

$0.89

$0.030

$0.255

$1.04

$2.06

$0.30
Current Value $

17845

14023

6667

6667

20000

25310

21274

22652

19173

21633

15890

11515

14880

20897

6725

19166

7500

19530

41914

21429

13421

15238

19995

30000


Original Portfolio Value $476500
Loan* $ 19625
Total Original $496125


Cash $13829
Current Portfolio Value $447173

Prepaid Interest Investment Loan $19625*




No dividends declared, no trades made.

I am not a licensed financial advisor, these are not recommendations and you should seek professional advice before investing. Using figures from an anonymous blogger on an internet forum is not professional financial advice, it is you being stupid

Current Values are rounded to dollar amount < $0.50 rounded down =/> $0.50 rounded up.



Greensborough 3088
Property Prices 12 months to November 2012

HOUSES Greensborough
Median Prices $488,000

Domain dot com dot au



They are up a little on last weeks figures... Portfolio 1 might take another knock tomorrow after Friday nights crunch on Gold/silver...
Edited by Poontang, 14 Apr 2013, 10:04 AM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Poontang
Member Avatar


Poontang
14 Apr 2013, 09:48 AM





They are up a little on last weeks figures... Portfolio 1 might take another knock tomorrow after Friday nights crunch on Gold/silver...
AYN proposing a Capital Raising...

Quote:
 

Level 1, 50
Kings Park Road
Phone: +61 8 9476
3000
ASX Code: AYN
West Perth Western Australia 6005
Fax:
+61
8 9322 8192
www.alcyone.com.au
Email: info@alcyone.com.au
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT & MEDIA RELEASE
15
April 2013
Alcyone to Recapitalise Balance Sheet with $14m Capital
Raising

Alcyone proposing to raise up to A$14M through a 3-for-2 non-renounceable pro-rata entitlements issue at 0.6c per share plus a 1-for-2 free attaching July 2015 option exercisable at 1c per share.

Patersons Securities Limited appointed as Corporate Adviser and Lead Manager to the issue.

New simplified funding framework and well capitalized balance sheet–Up to A$14M straight equity with a A$10M rolling pre-pay facility.

Raising will enable pay down of outstanding debt and fund operational improvements to achieve annual silver production in excess of 1Moz.

Revamped board and management led by new Chairman, Dr Paul D’Sylva to implement recapitalisation and operational improvement program.

The Company’s securities will remain suspended from trading on ASX until the proposed entitlements issue is completed.



The investment portfolios will take part in the raising as the medium to long term prospects for Silver are good.

Edited by Poontang, 15 Apr 2013, 05:51 PM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Poontang
Member Avatar


Poontang
16 Dec 2012, 08:34 AM
Share Code


SBM

NST

EPX

FML

IMF

AYN

ABY

BKP

MXR

GOR

OPP

$1.68

$1.415

$1.855

$0.031

$1.665

$0.037

$0.48

$0.006

$0.005

$0.013
Quantity

20000

20000

15000

806451

15000

500000

20000

830000

1000000

34154
Purchase Value

$33600

$28300

$27825

$25000

$24975

$18500

$9600

$5000

$5000

$4460
Current Price

$0.625

$0.765

$1.86

$0.018

$1.895

$0.012

$0.34

$0.005

$0.003

$0.07
Current Value

$12500

$15300

$27900

$14516

$28425

$18000

$6800

$4150

$3000

$2391



20Kg Silver Bullion @ $797.26Kg $15945
Cash $19759
Cash 2 $0


Portfolio Value at Start $240000
Portfolio Current Value $168686



I am not a licensed financial advisor. These are not recommendations, and always seek professional advice before investing.

Poontang
11 Jan 2013, 06:16 AM
Share Code


ABY

AVB

AYN

BKP

BPT

CKF

CTN

DUE

EHL

EPX

EVN

FML

GOR

IMF

KRM

MAD

MXR

NCM

NST

PIO

SAR

SBM

TGA

TSM
Quantity

43000

229885

555555

1666666

13793

13793

19607

9478

33057

11267

12084

606060

160000

11235

11695

27777

2500000

1000

47094

714284

52631

14652

9706

100000
Buy Price








$0.465

$0.087

$0.036

$0.006

$1.45

$1.45

$1.025

$2.11

$0.605

$1.775

$1.655

$0.033

$0.125

$1.78

$0.885

$0.72

$0.004

$21.56

$1.004

$0.028

$0.38

$1.365

$2.06

$0.20







Current Price




$0.34

$0.058

$0.012

$0.005

$1.40

$1.86

$1.03

$2.47

$0.49

$1.86

$0.995

$0.018

$0.07

$1.895

$0.53

$0.675

$0.003

$17.05

$0.765

$0.028

$0.15

$0.625

$2.02

$0.275



Current Value $







14620

13333

6667

8333

19310

25655

20195

23411

16198

20957

12024

10909

11200

21290

6198

18749

7500

17050

36027

20000

7895

9158

19606

27500








Share Portfolio Total $476500
Pre Paid Interest on loan 12 months in advance @ 7.65% $19625
Total $496125

Greensborough is the suburb picked.

Weekly Rent is $430pw $1849pm

House price $480000 + Stamps + Fees $498000

$240000k Deposit $258000 Loan @ 5.5% Fixed 3 Years.

Loan Repayment $1584 per month
Interest Component $1182 per month



NFI what happened with column headings...

I am not a licensed financial advisor, these are not recommendations and you should seek professional advice before investing. Using figures from an anonymous blogger on an internet forum is not professional financial advice, it is you being stupid


Share Portfolio $393785
Cash $13829
Total $407614
Edited by Poontang, 27 Apr 2013, 01:01 AM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Trojan
Default APF Avatar


I hope you haven't invested real money on this portfolio.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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snoopy
Default APF Avatar


Ouch! That's why I gave up on share investing sometime back...
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miw
Member Avatar


Strindberg
6 Apr 2013, 06:42 PM
All of that information is in the public domain and can be assumed to be priced in by the millions of market participants, most of whom do it as a full time profession and have massive information resources and funds available. Each side of all share trading find today's prices agreeable. Only currently unknown information will change prices.

There hasn't been a moment in my lifetime that it has not been possible to enumerate factors having possible dangerous consequences for the future. There are always dangers ahead. For 45 years following WWII there was a cold war threat of complete world wide nuclear annihilation. There was the Korean War, worldwide student uprisings, civil wars throughout Africa, the Balkans wars, ever present Indian/Pakistan hostility, Vietnam/Cambodian/Laos wars, Arab/Israeli conflict, 18% interest rates, OPEC quadrupling the price of oil, Iran, Iraq etc etc.
+1

We always seem to forget about all the things we were worried about or hoping for 10 years ago that didn't pan out. Then we just assume that the times were benign if the markets rose and talk as if that the way things worked out were somehow inevitable. I guess if you believe in predestination they were inevitable, but what matters is that nobody had a clue how it would pan out at the time.

Under the EMH, at any given time, the most probable price of a security in 1 days' time, 1 months' time and 1 years' time is todays' price, inflated or deflated by todays' market deflator.

In my experience, the EMH works most of the time, modulo a bit of market psychology that seems to make momentum work over relatively short timescales. (but nobody really knows why)
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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