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Australian Property Bubble 2013; Why the Great Aussie Housing Bubble is guaranteed to bust next year
Topic Started: 16 Nov 2012, 09:28 PM (15,876 Views)
Australian Property Bubble
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Borrowers are tapped out, there's no more blood to squeeze from the stone

FHBs are on strike and will stay on strike until prices crash

All ponzi schemes collapse when the pool of newcomers dries up

Interest rates must rise back to historic norms

Negative gearing is no longer a strategy (it never was)

Government out of ammo, no more grants and wasted stimulus

Property is not underpinned by fundamentals at current levels

The oversupply is becoming obvious, on the scale of America if not Ireland

Sales volume, vacancy rates and stock on market at dangerous levels

There's no more scope for rent rises because rents are limited by incomes

Incomes are falling along with working hours

Australian subprime disaster bubbling to the surface with record numbers in mortgage stress

Auction rates are manipulated and at least 20% lower than reported

Vendor discounts increasing because nothing is selling

Prices now falling will cause negative feedback loop within 3 months

Job losses mounting daily, check the Roy Morgan data (ABS can no longer be trusted)

Deflation on massive scale despite record money printing

US on fiscal cliff and China crash imminent

Mining boom dead and Dutch Disease hollowed out the economy

Credit growth at record lows
Edited by Australian Property Bubble, 16 Nov 2012, 09:29 PM.
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barns
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It's always next year.

Tomorrow, tomorrow, you're only a day awaaaaayyyyy.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
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earthsta
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Once again, the bulls can't mount a cogent argument, so resort to flippancy

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themoops
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Yes it is interesting that the government and powers that be are going full ball and it's only stagnating.

I was looking at Chatswood yesterday, lots of $700k-$900k apartments for sale.

Lots of great houses in yuppy suburbs like Vaucluse.

The North West has lots of desperate sellers.

However I am not sure if this ass is a touch too masculine for me.

http://i1162.photobucket.com/albums/q526/fryberg69/Pix/e3e2cc6a.jpg
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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frankrider
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Since we always seem to be 10 years behind the states I figure we have another 10 years or more of can kicking and praying for a magic cureall to our failing old economy. Certainly well past the time to short any publicly listed homebuilders though.

Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan

A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

frankrider
17 Nov 2012, 08:12 AM
Since we always seem to be 10 years behind the states I figure we have another 10 years or more of can kicking and praying for a magic cureall to our failing old economy. Certainly well past the time to short any publicly listed homebuilders though.
In 10 years the world economy may have long since recovered and Australia will be riding the boom. At that stage I think we will see a true housing price bubble that will make today's prices seem like loose change. I imagine in a decade we will have people complaining about how easy we have it now with prices so low.
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Trojan
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barns
16 Nov 2012, 10:08 PM
It's always next year.

Tomorrow, tomorrow, you're only a day awaaaaayyyyy.
But when it doesn't happen next year, he'll create a new account and post a new thread called Australia Property Bubble 2014
I put trolls on my ignore list so if I don't respond, you are probably on it ....
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

earthsta
16 Nov 2012, 10:28 PM
Once again, the bulls can't mount a cogent argument, so resort to flippancy

you lot have been calling a bust for atleast 4 years now. some of the bears have been calling it for a decade.

hence no one takes you seriously.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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earthsta
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timmy
17 Nov 2012, 09:22 AM
earthsta
16 Nov 2012, 10:28 PM
Once again, the bulls can't mount a cogent argument, so resort to flippancy

you lot have been calling a bust for atleast 4 years now. some of the bears have been calling it for a decade.

hence no one takes you seriously.
Are house prices up over the last couple of years?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

earthsta
17 Nov 2012, 09:39 AM
Are house prices up over the last couple of years?
House prices fall every few years - it's just part of the cycle.

House prices nationally are only down 5% from peak, which is nothing really, compared to the gains seen in the preceding years.

The stock market sometimes falls 5% in just one day.

And nationally, house prices are up 2.5% since the middle of this year, so prices are rising again.

It's all just part of the cycle.

Neil Jenman has been calling the imminent bursting of 'the bubble' since 2001.

According to the bears, the big crash is always next quarter, next year. Always so close but just out of reach...
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All property bubbles had one thing in common...
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
6 - Australian household formation rate faster than population growth rate since 1960s = ongoing improvement in housing affordability.
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Australian Property Forum focuses on Australian and global real estate markets, economics, and finance, including house prices, housing affordability, macroeconomics, and the likelihood of an Australian property crash. Does Australia have a housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is it a good time to buy property using a home loan, or better to rent and save the difference? Is rent money dead money? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can property values rise keep rising forever? These are the types of question we address on Australia's premier real estate chat site for property bears, bulls, investors and speculators. Whether you're a property investor, first home buyer (FHB) or a happily renting tenant, this site has content for everyone. Additional topics debated on APF include politics, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, precious metals, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental, human rights and social justice issues, whether or not Australia has a critical housing shortage, versus a glut (oversupply) of dwellings, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax, macro prudential regulation, reverse mortgages, debt consolidation, debt management, home insurance, landlord insurance, auction results, auction clearance rates, and all the latest house price news. Forum members also regularly review and and analyse the latest blogs and trending topics from sites like Business Spectator, Property Observer, Macrobusiness, Somersoft, Demographia, Steve Keen's Debtwatch, as well as MSM (mainstream media) articles from well known economists, reporters and commentators such as Ross Gittins, Neil Jenman, Michael Pascoe, Alan Kohler, Shane Oliver, Catherine Cashmore, Philip Soos, Louis Christopher (SQM Research), Mike (Mish) Shedlock, Leith van Onselen, Chris Becker, David Llewellyn-Smith, Chris Vedelago and more. APF is the first forum to report and debate the latest auction results and house price data releases from APM (Australian Property Monitors), Residex, RP Data Rismark, REIV (Real Estate Institute of Victoria), REINSW (Real Estate Institute of NSW), REIA (Real Estate Institute of Australia), HIA (Housing Industry Association), RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), API (Australian Property Institute), and the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics).

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