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McWilliams: Oz property overvalued; The man who predicted the crash in Ireland in 2003
Topic Started: 14 Nov 2012, 11:25 PM (13,736 Views)
Veritas
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Economist David McWilliams has told the Lansdowne Club that it ‘screams to him’ that Australia’s housing market is overvalued.

The economist and broadcaster addressed the Irish business network at the Sydney Convention Centre on Monday.

“Property booms are never driven by supply and demand – they are driven by credit. And credit is the pretty hand-maiden of debt,” he told a room of about 300 people at the ticketed event.

“It screams to me – running naked down Darling Harbour – that this property market is overvalued,” he said.

However, he added a number of caveats to his assessment.

He said Australia was “flamboyantly abundant in resources” and that he would have made the same observation about the Australian property market at any time in the last six years.

http://www.irishecho.com.au/2012/11/13/mcwilliams-oz-property-market-is-overvalued/21562
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Timo
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But. but. but Australia is ....different...

Any lie will be told to the next victims of AREPS (Australian Real Estate Ponzi Scheme)
***Say NO to the S.C.U.M effect - Speculation Creates Unsustainable Mortgages***

***Say NO to A.R.E.P.S - Australian Real Estate Ponzi Scheme***


http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/07/mb-radio-housing-affordability-and-politics/
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

Quote:
 

However, he added a number of caveats to his assessment.

He said Australia was “flamboyantly abundant in resources” and that he would have made the same observation about the Australian property market at any time in the last six years.

Good to see he has the integrity to admit he would have been wrong in the past.
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Ex BP Golly
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We don't need people like that coming here saying shit that scares the locals!

How the hell does he even get a visa?

And anyway, people are always running through Darling Harbour naked screaming "the ponzi is over", and nothing has happened yet.

My cute little handmaiden debt is hard at it now. Go girl!
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

Ex BP Golly
15 Nov 2012, 05:57 AM
And anyway, people are always running through Darling Harbour naked screaming "the ponzi is over", and nothing has happened yet.
I think the correct phrase to yell when running naked through Darling Harbour is "I'll glass ya, ya fkn cnt."
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Wisebear
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NotFooled
15 Nov 2012, 05:35 AM
Quote:
 

However, he added a number of caveats to his assessment.

He said Australia was “flamboyantly abundant in resources” and that he would have made the same observation about the Australian property market at any time in the last six years.

Good to see he has the integrity to admit he would have been wrong in the past.
But he wasn't wrong in the past, he said he would have made the same observation about the Australian property market at any time in the last six years and he would have been correct.

The Australian property bubble has existed for a decade and the fact that it hasn't yet crashed does invalidate that. I know that some here think that you can't call it a bubble unless it crashes or that a bubble must follow some magical pattern similar to other bubbles or comply with their favourite metric but they're wrong. All bubbles are different and some can stay inflated for a long time especially when they receive special governmental assistance.

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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

it was a ticketed event. people who bought those tickets would have gone there to hear bear porn and nothing else.

australia's credit system and supply demand ratio's are nothing like other countries. When i hear a crash theory that doesn't rely on comparing us to some other country i will sit up and listen.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Veritas
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timmy
15 Nov 2012, 10:26 AM
it was a ticketed event. people who bought those tickets would have gone there to hear bear porn and nothing else.

australia's credit system and supply demand ratio's are nothing like other countries. When i hear a crash theory that doesn't rely on comparing us to some other country i will sit up and listen.
I doubt that.

It is more likely that they were part of the irish community in Sydney who came to hear him talk about the serious strife that Irish society currently finds itself in.

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b_b
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from the clock that correctly predicted quarter past 6....
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Edited by b_b, 15 Nov 2012, 10:38 AM.
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Veritas
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Well McWilliams central point is that the banks have pumped up the property market by pumping the market for of a credit. And, of course, many a willing borrower has been willing to take the money.

See graph below using RBA data. Lots of credit going into the maket.

Posted Image
Edited by Veritas, 15 Nov 2012, 11:04 AM.
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