Significant C02 caused warming is currently just a guess rather than a fact
Occam's razor would tell you that some proportion of the warming since 1900 having been caused by the rise in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is the best currently available explanation. The mechanism is known and theoretically robust. I would find the contrary to be an extremely surprising result.
That there are other things happening would seem also seem to be a very high-probability proposition. The rate of warming has been anything but smooth - there are other signals in there.
Predicting what will happen in the future under various scenarios still has enormous error bars on it. The whole AGW thing might become moot if the Arctic permafrost melts. That has the potential to have a stronger effect than anything people can produce - in the wrong direction - ok man may have caused it, but there is nothing that can be done about it except to adapt.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Occam's razor would tell you that some proportion of the warming since 1900 having been caused by the rise in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is the best currently available explanation. The mechanism is known and theoretically robust. I would find the contrary to be an extremely surprising result.
That there are other things happening would seem also seem to be a very high-probability proposition. The rate of warming has been anything but smooth - there are other signals in there.
Predicting what will happen in the future under various scenarios still has enormous error bars on it. The whole AGW thing might become moot if the Arctic permafrost melts. That has the potential to have a stronger effect than anything people can produce - in the wrong direction - ok man may have caused it, but there is nothing that can be done about it except to adapt.
There does not really need to be an explanation for warming. Long lasting but temporary climate changes could easily be only created by random factors.
If it is now as warm as it was a thousand years ago, which was preceded by a very cool period, and we discount human involvement in the past why do we now have to say humans are significantly involved in the current warming?
If it is now as warm as it was a thousand years ago, which was preceded by a very cool period, and we discount human involvement in the past why do we now have to say humans are significantly involved in the current warming?
Because if you increased CO2 and the temperature did *not* warm up, it would defy both Boltzmann's and Boyle's laws.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Because if you increased CO2 and the temperature did *not* warm up, it would defy both Boltzmann's and Boyle's laws.
Well firstly you seem to be forever hedging your bets by cloaking your language in ambiguous terms where almost nobody is going to disagree with you when phrased as you phrase it. Increasing C02 *is* very likely to cause a warming amount. The question that seems unanswered is by how much does it cause a warming amount?
But what has any of this got to do with Boyles law? Increasing our atmospheric volume and pressure by the tiny amount that is created by the tiny amount of man made C02 release is going to result in a very small temperature increase that is a one off event rather than a forcing event that continually adds to the earths heat content.
There does not really need to be an explanation for warming. Long lasting but temporary climate changes could easily be only created by random factors.
Such as?
Quote:
If it is now as warm as it was a thousand years ago, which was preceded by a very cool period, and we discount human involvement in the past why do we now have to say humans are significantly involved in the current warming?
tosh.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!! You are no longer customer, you are property!!!
There does not really need to be an explanation for warming. Long lasting but temporary climate changes could easily be only created by random factors.
If it is now as warm as it was a thousand years ago, which was preceded by a very cool period, and we discount human involvement in the past why do we now have to say humans are significantly involved in the current warming?
It seems generally accepted that the dark ages were associated with a severe climate cooling that had ended by the time of the medieval warm period 1000 years ago. It then got cooler during the little ice age and has now warmed to similar temperatures as the MWP.
If it were to get cooler again it would be entirely in keeping with the changes of the last few thousand years.
This is a tricky one. Its obvious that the climate is changing, but its hard to say how much if any, is caused by humans. And if it is caused by humans, can we stop it or should we focus our efforts on adapting?
I generally try not to speak about stuff I know nothing about. I do believe that the scientists researching climate change know a lot more than someone who is not a scientist. If you go by their conclusion, I'd say that humans are responsible for the changing climate, at least to some degree.
There is also some misunderstanding by some people regarding the scientific "consensus". There are in fact very few scientists that reject man made global warming. For example, between 1991 and 2012, there were 13,950 peer reviewed articles published about climate change. Out of those, only 24 rejected man made global warming.
My personal scepticism comes from the fact that in the 80's, we were taught in science class about impeding ice age...
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