Five years ago, the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change painted a gloomy picture of our planet’s future. As climate scientists gather evidence for the next report, due in 2014, Michael Le Page gives seven reasons why things are looking even grimmer.
ARCTIC WARMING The thick sea ice in the Arctic Ocean was not expected to melt until the end of the century. If current trends continue, summer ice could be gone in a decade or two
EXTREME WEATHER We knew global warming was going to make the weather more extreme. But it's becoming even more extreme than anyone predicted
FOOD PRODUCTION Global warming was expected to boost food production. Instead, food prices are soaring as the effects of extreme weather kick in
SEA LEVEL Greenland's rapid loss of ice mean we're in for a rise of at least 1 metre by 2100, and possibly much more
PLANETARY FEEDBACKS The planet currently absorbs half our CO2 emissions. All the signs are it won't for much longer
HUMAN EMISSIONS If we stopped emitting CO2 tomorrow, we might be able to avoid climate disaster. In fact we are still increasing emissions
HEAT STRESS If the worst climate predictions are realised, vast swathes of the globe could become too hot for humans to survive
The World Bank has warned the planet is on track to warm by four degrees Celsius this century - causing increasingly extreme heat waves, lower crop yields and rising sea levels - unless significant action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
In a major report released ahead of the year-end United Nations climate summit in Qatar, the bank says changes associated with four degrees of warming would have dramatic and devastating effects on all parts of the world, including Australia, but that the poor would be most vulnerable.
Scientists say global warming must be kept within two degrees of pre-industrial temperatures to give the world the best chance of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.
The report – a snapshot of the most recent climate science prepared for the bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics – says global mean warming is now about 0.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
It says that if current promises by nations to curb emissions are met then it is most likely there will be more than three degrees warming. However, under that scenario it warns there is also a 20 per cent likelihood that four degrees of warming will occur by 2100.
If current promises are not met, then the world is "plausibly" on a path to warm by four degrees this century, possibly as early as 2060, the bank says.
The report, titled Turn Down the Heat, says if the world experiences four degrees of warming it would:
* See a 150 per cent increase in ocean acidity, leading to the extinction of some sensitive coral reef ecosystems.
* Result in sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1 metres by 2100, with more in following centuries, affecting low-lying islands and coastal communities.
* Lead to more extreme heatwaves, reduced run-off into major rivers and a significant decline in biodiversity, all risking the support systems of humans.
The report says the full impact on human development of a four-degree-hotter world is unknown, making it is unclear whether humanity would be able to adapt.
"A 4°C world is likely to be one in which communities, cities and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation, with many of these risks spread unequally," the report says.
This thread makes me wonder what happened to Audus. Did his head explode from his 7 degrees, or has he moved to a bunker to ride out the massive environmental collapse that he believed was imminent?
This thread makes me wonder what happened to Audus. Did his head explode from his 7 degrees, or has he moved to a bunker to ride out the massive environmental collapse that he believed was imminent?
Maybe his resentment chip overloaded and caused a shutdown.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!! You are no longer customer, you are property!!!
This thread makes me wonder what happened to Audus. Did his head explode from his 7 degrees, or has he moved to a bunker to ride out the massive environmental collapse that he believed was imminent?
Ahh, not fooled living by the credo:
Why bury your head in the sand when your own arse is so moist and warm?
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE! Share a cot with Milton?
This thread makes me wonder what happened to Audus. Did his head explode from his 7 degrees, or has he moved to a bunker to ride out the massive environmental collapse that he believed was imminent?
Interesting response to the 2 media releases above. I take it you don't believe them ?
November 27, 2012 - 8:08PM Ben Cubby ENVIRONMENT EDITOR
THE world is on the cusp of a "tipping point" into dangerous climate change, according to new data gathered by scientists measuring methane leaking from the Arctic permafrost and a report presented to the United Nations on Tuesday.
"The permafrost carbon feedback is irreversible on human time scales," says the report, Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost. "Overall, these observations indicate that large-scale thawing of permafrost may already have started."
While countries the size of Australia tally up their greenhouse emissions in hundreds of millions of tonnes, the Arctic's stores are measured in tens of billions. Arctic permafrost
Climate change scientists warn the rate of melting of permafrost in the Arctic could cause significant impact to the environment. Pictures courtesy of an Australian documentary team from Unboxed Media, which is producing a series called Tipping Points, to be aired in 2013.
Human-induced emissions now appear to have warmed the Arctic enough to unlock this vast carbon bank, with stark implications for international efforts to hold global warming to a safe level. Ancient forests locked under ice tens of thousands of years ago are beginning to melt and rot, releasing vast amounts of greenhouse gases into the air.
The report estimates the greenhouse gases leaking from the thawing Arctic will eventually add more to emissions than last year's combined carbon output of the US and Europe – a statistic which means present global plans to hold climate change to an average 2degree temperature rise this century are now likely to be much more difficult.
Until very recently permafrost was thought to have been melting too slowly to make a meaningful difference to temperatures this century, so it was left out of the Kyoto Protocol, and ignored by many climate change models.
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