Mike, in the op you agree with the bull spriuker call of 22% rise over three years. You seem to have changed your tune a bit now. Why?
It barely budged in half a decade with a 100 year mining boom and record low rates in place.
No.
I merely reported the BIS report and agreed with it.
My own prediction was for prices to rise from the December quarter 2011 to be up between 15-25% growth by 2015/16 after which I think the market will be slow to no growth. Newjez knows this as we had countless debated about it a few years back.
Presently the Perth market is up 15.9% as per the ABS.
Nice steady growth with burst of activity followed with slow to no growth.
I expect to see another 3-5% growth by Winter next year and that will be about all the growth we can expect for some time.
Is that not a reasonable prediction, not a bad result considering I called it over 2 years ago.
You will also note the BIS prediction has a further year to run to October 2015, so far they have been very accurate. If the BIS prediction is meet, then my own prediction is conservative as Perth would exceed the 25% prediction I made.
At the peak of the mining boom Perth House prices declined, why was that. The mining boom has little direct influence on the price of housing, otherwise explain why prices in Perth declined almost 10% during 2011? During the peak of the mining Boom? Now as that boom declines for the past 2 years, house prices rise almost 16% why?
At the peak of the mining boom Perth House prices declined, why was that. The mining boom has little direct influence on the price of housing, otherwise explain why prices in Perth declined almost 10% during 2011? During the peak of the mining Boom? Now as that boom declines for the past 2 years, house prices rise almost 16% why?
Christ Mike you are a Fvckwit of the highest order.
Not all capex spending equals high paid WA jobs. You have no idea how capex works in the context of a minesite construction program.
The other day you were saying that capex was increasing when it obviously isn't.
You are without doubt one of the thickest people I have ever encountered anywhere in cyberspace.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I merely reported the BIS report and agreed with it.
My own prediction was for prices to rise from the December quarter 2011 to be up between 15-25% growth by 2015/16 after which I think the market will be slow to no growth. Newjez knows this as we had countless debated about it a few years back.
Presently the Perth market is up 15.9% as per the ABS.
Nice steady growth with burst of activity followed with slow to no growth.
I expect to see another 3-5% growth by Winter next year and that will be about all the growth we can expect for some time.
Is that not a reasonable prediction, not a bad result considering I called it over 2 years ago.
You will also note the BIS prediction has a further year to run to October 2015, so far they have been very accurate. If the BIS prediction is meet, then my own prediction is conservative as Perth would exceed the 25% prediction I made.
At the peak of the mining boom Perth House prices declined, why was that. The mining boom has little direct influence on the price of housing, otherwise explain why prices in Perth declined almost 10% during 2011? During the peak of the mining Boom? Now as that boom declines for the past 2 years, house prices rise almost 16% why?
Its been explained several times Mike. If you are too thick to understand it, god help you. I made one mistake. China and the drop in interest rates delayed the inevitable. But it is inevitable. It is clearly obvious that you don't understand the Perth market, and that will cost you. We've had 3% over the last five years. There will be nothing over the next five.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Whether it takes the form of a crash or a slow burn is largely irrelevant. It is clear now that your supposed victory and my terrible error was merely a dead cat bounce. It happens. Get over it. You've failed to make any headway. It's all downhill from now. 3% in the last five years. Nothing or less for the next five. Get used to it.
Ok 3% in 10 years, or we could look at the 10 year price growth since property is a long term investment.
That's the whole point you fucking moron. Jesus Mike, most of us bears were invested over this period and made an absolute killing. You're the idiot that thinks this will occur eternally. You won't get that again till 2020, at which time I tend to be heavily invested in Perth.
Christ Mike you are a Fvckwit of the highest order.
Not all capex spending equals high paid WA jobs. You have no idea how capex works in the context of a minesite construction program.
The other day you were saying that capex was increasing when it obviously isn't.
You are without doubt one of the thickest people I have ever encountered anywhere in cyberspace.
Not all Capex exists on mining sites, you don't seem to understand how much greater impact Capex spend on residential or commercial construction in Perth has rather then far flung industrial sites.
For the record you stated Capex always increased this time of year due to seasonal factors, such as companies trying to spend up prior to the end of the financial year. Now you are claiming Capex fell, which is it. You cannot even get you're own storey correct in you're head.
So you got that totally wrong, the ABS already accounts for seasonal factors and Capex still increased from March to June Quarter.
I also stated I expect capex to decline in the longer term, but you don't want to quote that do you, as that would be quoting me in context of my overall post. My whole point which you seemed to have missed is the Capex decline in mining is not impacting the economy as much as expected due to other areas of strong capex growth as shown.
Even the RBA Governor Glen Steven agrees with my position, it is in the RBA minutes. Go read them from a few months back.
Mining Capex declining is not having the impact that a lot thought it would, The RBA now states the mining Boom was overstated for its effects to the economy and the RBA made errors in raising rates to high for to long to suppress the rest of the economy to make room for the mining boom. This is stated in legal documents to the senate from the RBA.
Please keep rolling out the insults, abuse it simply makes you appear desperate. Hard to counter facts isn't it.
newjez
7 Sep 2014, 02:58 PM
No, there is another.. That's the whole point you fucking moron. Jesus Mike, most of us bears were invested over this period and made an absolute killing. You're the idiot that thinks this will occur eternally. You won't get that again till 2020, at which time I tend to be heavily invested in Perth.
No.
I have stated my position and I expect growth to stop into next year, at which point I will become a bear.
You simply cannot read, nearly ever Bull presently on this forums states prices go down, up and stagnate for periods of time. Why all the abuse, it is not my fault you cannot read posts or understand them.
2020, that's a few year to late. You might want to plan for around 2018.
You might need to keep saving as prices will be significantly higher by that time frame, 2020 is too late.
Not in WA it didn't you bloody idiot. It fell seasonally adjusted 2.8% and it fell massively in dollar terms on the same quarter last year.
You are quoting an Australia wide number on a thread about Perth property. You keep doing that!!
Are you really that stupid that you believe that house prices are largely unrelated to the biggest mining expansion in the history of WA (and Australia)?
If you really believe that, then you are contradicting the mainstream view held by every economist and politician in the country.
Why is Perth so much more expensive than Brisbane, Adelaide etc?
It is because we had a huge, well publicised ramp up in well paid jobs that dragged in migrants from all over the country and the world.
We also failed to build enough to cope with demand.
Apart from that Mike, mining capex had no influence on WA property prices at all.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Not all Capex exists on mining sites, you don't seem to understand how much greater impact Capex spend on residential or commercial construction in Perth has rather then far flung industrial sites.
For the record you stated Capex always increased this time of year due to seasonal factors, such as companies trying to spend up prior to the end of the financial year. Now you are claiming Capex fell, which is it. You cannot even get you're own storey correct in you're head.
So you got that totally wrong, the ABS already accounts for seasonal factors and Capex still increased from March to June Quarter.
I also stated I expect capex to decline in the longer term, but you don't want to quote that do you, as that would be quoting me in context of my overall post. My whole point which you seemed to have missed is the Capex decline in mining is not impacting the economy as much as expected due to other areas of strong capex growth as shown.
Even the RBA Governor Glen Steven agrees with my position, it is in the RBA minutes. Go read them from a few months back.
Mining Capex declining is not having the impact that a lot thought it would, The RBA now states the mining Boom was overstated for its effects to the economy and the RBA made errors in raising rates to high for to long to suppress the rest of the economy to make room for the mining boom. This is stated in legal documents to the senate from the RBA.
Please keep rolling out the insults, abuse it simply makes you appear desperate. Hard to counter facts isn't it. No.
I have stated my position and I expect growth to stop into next year, at which point I will become a bear.
You simply cannot read, nearly ever Bull presently on this forums states prices go down, up and stagnate for periods of time. Why all the abuse, it is not my fault you cannot read posts or understand them.
2020, that's a few year to late. You might want to plan for around 2018.
You might need to keep saving as prices will be significantly higher by that time frame, 2020 is too late.
That's if we'll have you. Personally I think you're a liability.
Jimbo
7 Sep 2014, 03:31 PM
Not in WA it didn't you bloody idiot. It fell seasonally adjusted 2.8% and it fell massively in dollar terms on the same quarter last year.
You are quoting an Australia wide number on a thread about Perth property. You keep doing that!!
Are you really that stupid that you believe that house prices are largely unrelated to the biggest mining expansion in the history of WA (and Australia)?
If you really believe that, then you are contradicting the mainstream view held by every economist and politician in the country.
Why is Perth so much more expensive than Brisbane, Adelaide etc?
It is because we had a huge, well publicised ramp up in well paid jobs that dragged in migrants from all over the country and the world.
We also failed to build enough to cope with demand.
Apart from that Mike, mining capex had no influence on WA property prices at all.
Mike didn't grow up in Perth. He doesn't really understand how things work.
This is the type of mindless debt expansion that has fed the housing ponzi in Australia.
Just look at this lost bull below. Was unable to save a deposit for an average house by nearly forty years of age. Was sponsered by his parents into a ppor in 2008, and also a ip in 2009. Has not paid one single cent from the ppor principal or ip, and has just settled on another ip that will surely be interest only again.
He even talks about taking out a car loan of 20k too .
And now rents and prices are dropping, he stands to lose everything and walk away with nothing but debt.
This is the type of mindless debt expansion that has fed the housing ponzi in Australia.
Just look at this lost bull below. Was unable to save a deposit for an average house by nearly forty years of age. Was sponsered by his parents into a ppor in 2008, and also a ip in 2009. Has not paid one single cent from the ppor principal or ip, and has just settled on another ip that will surely be interest only again.
He even talks about taking out a car loan of 20k too .
And now rents and prices are dropping, he stands to lose everything and walk away with nothing but debt.
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