Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 6
Perth house prices up 4% in 1 Month; Is this the start of the boom.
Topic Started: 25 Oct 2012, 01:36 PM (4,588 Views)
newjez
Member Avatar


Mike - do you mind shutting the window after your credibility please?

What a numbnut. If anything, this is representative of the decreasing volumes in Perth. You will see more wild swings as that data pool becomes so small as to be meaningless. I think Perth data has become so volatile that we can pretty much ignore it. It's volumes we need to be concentrating on now to give us trends. Volumes in themselves are hard to interpret without and ear to the ground.
Edited by newjez, 25 Oct 2012, 04:19 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


newjez
25 Oct 2012, 04:17 PM
Mike - do you mind shutting the window after your credibility please?

What a numbnut. If anything, this is representative of the decreasing volumes in Perth. You will see more wild swings as that data pool becomes so small as to be meaningless. I think Perth data has become so volatile that we can pretty much ignore it. It's volumes we need to be concentrating on now to give us trends. Volumes in themselves are hard to interpret without and ear to the ground.
The latest data shows sales have increased again, after a few slower weeks.

So housing stock declining from 18,500 to 10,800 is not a trend over the past 9 months. Prices rising from a low of $466k 12 months ago to be $493k as per landgate. A rise of 5.8% in 12 months on the median price. This is only up to May of this year, the most upto date data shows a 4% rise in prices in the last month alone. So both landgate, rpdata show sustained prices rises.

To round this off we have a vacancy rate of affordable homes of 0.1%, it really is a disaster over here for renters at present. The salvos are asking the Govt for more money as the number of homeless on the streets is growing. Rents are up over the last 12 months 16%.

Now all of this has happened despite the best Europe can throw at us, despite talk of a hard landing in China. A slowing national eocnomy, carbon tax, mining tax. Perhaps you can throw the kitchen sink in as well, yet we still have rising prices, sales volumes and rents.

If you cannot see this trend, then you are simply so biased as to be blind. You dont need to believe me, its all in the data to see. Dont get angry with me because the data no longer supports claims of declining prices or a price crash. Those dreams have been kicked down the road another 5 years at least.
Edited by Mike, 25 Oct 2012, 04:30 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Strindberg
Member Avatar


There is some confusion in this thread but I was very surprised when I looked at the RP Data daily indices today to see that Perth is up a very unexpected 4.35% for the year.

That is very substantial and fully vindicates Black Panther with his call that the 3rd quarter last year was the tipping point.

4.35% on a $500k property is about $22k. It means, on average, those in Perth who wanted to buy for $500k last year (but delayed expecting a crash or believed media tarts like Collyer)) now have to find another $22k for that property. That's a massive additional amount to save in just a year whilst paying Perth rent.

Same old story. People who expect a crash, and act accordingly, get stuffed. There's an endless supply of such people. Maybe that's why the proportion of renters has been rising in recent years. The renter numbers are boosted by crash expectant renters.

Yes, the rise today was not 2.2% (2.2 was the index rise). But it was still very positive at about 0.4% for one day.

Posted Image
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Count du Monet
Member Avatar


Strindberg
25 Oct 2012, 05:33 PM


4.35% on a $500k property is about $22k. It means, on average, those in Perth who wanted to buy for $500k last year (but delayed expecting a crash or believed media tarts like Collyer)) now have to find another $22k for that property. That's a massive additional amount to save in just a year whilst paying Perth rent.
Actually it'll prove quite worthless to buy in Perth. The commodities bull is on it last legs, and anybody holding Perth with a commodities demise will be slaughtered.

Far better off buying Sydney, that has more promise in the years ahead.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Catweasel
Member Avatar


Catweasel say crikey. Spite, a envy, nasty, a bitter, data misunderstand, bait of a sparring partner, a Stringbag (aka The Bag), future predict based on what it now know.

All in a less than 1 page of thread.

Such a hyper-active can a mean a something: Inner fear and hopes impacting high on a high on aggregate emotional mix.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


Doubtful
25 Oct 2012, 02:38 PM
"I make money regardless of the market" - Mike the bullshit artist - 2012

See this where people like you go wrong.

Ask yourself when is a good time to buy, when prices are down or a certain % lower then the peak. When prices are down I buy land and build houses/units. Why, not only is it cheaper for the up front costs such as purchase of land but you can get better deals from the trades you use, as they are deseperate for work.

As an example. A house I built in 2009/10 during the mini boom due to low rates and Govt stimulus it cost me almost $50,000 more in construction costs due to labour and materials then what it cost me to build a similar house last year. Never build during a boom or rapidly rising prices, not only do you pay more but get a crap build as trades want to do your job and move on to the next as fast as possible.

I build a certain number of houses, units per year depending on the market. If prices are flat I will hold unless I got the land for a bargain and construction was within budget. At present in perth I hold and rent as the returns are simply to good to miss at present. With prices rising here and stock on market way down from 12 months ago, I might try and sell a few in early 2013.

Some properties I hold long term, others I flip quick or use them to replace older builds to keep deprications flowing and reducing my tax bill each year which is large due to profits often from capital gains.

I am presently in the process of securing a large block of land close to the city which has approval for 5 units, well they will be more like 2 storey town houses is what I have planned for them. I will start construction on them later next year once I get my new house underway. Not sure if I will sell these 5 as the rents close to the CBD are very good, i might sell 2 keep 3 something like that but it all comes down to profit margins even selling or the return on investment at that point in time.

I do have a business though, and considered a developer by the banks which is tough at 1st but once you got 2 years of proven cash flow behind you and can show solid profits your lending ability goes through the roof as now it is based on business income not my wage from my day job. I still do a few builds or buys under my own name for tax reasons but mostly under my developer name, plus business right offs are too good to miss out on.

But anyway it cant be done right, no one can build lots of houses, units and so forth. Just how do you think poeple started out 50 years ago in a small business and now build 50 storey apartment blocks. Anyone can do it, you just need to put the effort into it instead of putting so much effort into saying it cant be done, the world is so unfair cry me a river.
Edited by Mike, 25 Oct 2012, 07:24 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
earthsta
Default APF Avatar


timmy
25 Oct 2012, 03:57 PM
Obviously a glitch because it's not represented here

http://www.rpdata.com/research/back_series.html

it shows a 1.4% rise for the day





Your maths, like the rest of your posts, are shit.

0.36% rise for the day
Edited by earthsta, 25 Oct 2012, 07:50 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


Mike
25 Oct 2012, 07:23 PM
But anyway it cant be done right, no one can build lots of houses, units and so forth. Just how do you think poeple started out 50 years ago in a small business and now build 50 storey apartment blocks. Anyone can do it, you just need to put the effort into it instead of putting so much effort into saying it cant be done, the world is so unfair cry me a river.
I think I've said this before, but the difference between property bears and successful property investors is that investors are betteer at finding ways to make things work, rather than relying on forumlas and hype. The bears, for the most part, just don't understand, and that's why they get angry and frustrated.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


earthsta
25 Oct 2012, 07:47 PM




Your maths, like the rest of your posts, are shit.

0.36% rise for the day
I was going to say something but Timmy does not like to admit mistakes.

For instance currently I do not believe prices are falling in Perth due to so much conflicting information. Even though volumes have really dropped off.

Plently of positives and negatives but blighted by the bulls constant fuckups.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Doubtful
Member Avatar


Mike
25 Oct 2012, 07:23 PM
Doubtful
25 Oct 2012, 02:38 PM
"I make money regardless of the market" - Mike the bullshit artist - 2012

See this where people like you go wrong.

Ask yourself when is a good time to buy, when prices are down or a certain % lower then the peak. When prices are down I buy land and build houses/units. Why, not only is it cheaper for the up front costs such as purchase of land but you can get better deals from the trades you use, as they are deseperate for work.

As an example. A house I built in 2009/10 during the mini boom due to low rates and Govt stimulus it cost me almost $50,000 more in construction costs due to labour and materials then what it cost me to build a similar house last year. Never build during a boom or rapidly rising prices, not only do you pay more but get a crap build as trades want to do your job and move on to the next as fast as possible.

I build a certain number of houses, units per year depending on the market. If prices are flat I will hold unless I got the land for a bargain and construction was within budget. At present in perth I hold and rent as the returns are simply to good to miss at present. With prices rising here and stock on market way down from 12 months ago, I might try and sell a few in early 2013.

Some properties I hold long term, others I flip quick or use them to replace older builds to keep deprications flowing and reducing my tax bill each year which is large due to profits often from capital gains.

I am presently in the process of securing a large block of land close to the city which has approval for 5 units, well they will be more like 2 storey town houses is what I have planned for them. I will start construction on them later next year once I get my new house underway. Not sure if I will sell these 5 as the rents close to the CBD are very good, i might sell 2 keep 3 something like that but it all comes down to profit margins even selling or the return on investment at that point in time.

I do have a business though, and considered a developer by the banks which is tough at 1st but once you got 2 years of proven cash flow behind you and can show solid profits your lending ability goes through the roof as now it is based on business income not my wage from my day job. I still do a few builds or buys under my own name for tax reasons but mostly under my developer name, plus business right offs are too good to miss out on.

But anyway it cant be done right, no one can build lots of houses, units and so forth. Just how do you think poeple started out 50 years ago in a small business and now build 50 storey apartment blocks. Anyone can do it, you just need to put the effort into it instead of putting so much effort into saying it cant be done, the world is so unfair cry me a river.
Thanks for the run down on how a construction company works...

Now back to the point. Anyone who speaks in absolutes will be proven wrong at some point. I don't doubt you have made money in the past. I do doubt that you are guaranteed to make money regardless of the market.




Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 6



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy