I think he gets to define what he meant - it's his prediction.
Also, given it is a still a fair way out, he also has the prerogative to change his mind along the way, concede on any past prediction as being incorrect, and make a new one if he wants (which is what you think he is doing). There is no shame in doing this years before your prediction falls due! Many of the doomsayers who got their predictions massively wrong - like SK, didn't conceded there "wrongness" until well after it was very clear they were wrong, and many of their followers still claim they were not wrong at all! Kris Sayce from Money Morning has been wrong on house prices every year since 2010, predicting a massive crash with absolute certainty! He published a special "free" report about it every year and advertised all over the internet! He has never once admitted he was wrong or explained how he got it so wrong? I won't even start on the MB folks.....
Steve Keen was wrong on the first part of his prediction, the second part is still in play so we must wait and see.
earthsta
18 Oct 2012, 11:11 AM
On Jan 22, 2010, the all knowing Shadow made what seemed to be a bold prediction. Namely, that Sydney house prices would rise over the next 4-5 years to approach $1m.
Most sane, rational people would count five years from the date of the post and come to a logical conclusion of Jan 15, 2015. Shadow begs to differ. Is Shadow innumerate, illogical and irrational?
So the questions is, when exactly is that 4-5 years up?
Have your vote
OK, Question. Today being Thursday, I say to you, "I am having a BBQ next Saturday, do wish to come?" Do you think I mean the Saturday coming or the Saturday after?
I would take it to mean I am inviting you to the BBQ the Saturday after.. Not THIS Saturday but the NEXT one.
On the actual statement, I would not take it as a literal date. Due to the many forces at work in regards to real estate, if what happens that you said would happen with in 1 or 2 years of saying it would then you were/are close enough in my view.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
OK, Question. Today being Thursday, I say to you...
OK, Question. Today being Jan 22, 2010 I say to you, "I am going to pay you a bonus based on your performance over the next year." Over the course of the next 12 months, up until Jan 22, 2011, you have smashed all your target objectives out of the park.
Do you expect a full-year bonus as a result of the original statement?? Or do you meekly expect that only your Jan. 1 - 21, 2011 performance counts...?!?
Ok, how about a new game, Median Sydney house price in real money-Gold in 2015,
2005 912oz 2010 440oz
Today 335oz
Prediction for 2015? I will say 250oz
Enjoy The Ride!
The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.” ― Friedrich A. von Hayek
"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.
OK, Question. Today being Jan 22, 2010 I say to you, "I am going to pay you a bonus based on your performance over the next year." Over the course of the next 12 months, up until Jan 22, 2011, you have smashed all your target objectives out of the park.
Do you expect a full-year bonus as a result of the original statement?? Or do you meekly expect that only your Jan. 1 - 21, 2011 performance counts...?!?
I'd ask you to clarify from when till when and how much...
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
The real reason Shadow doesn't want to be reminded of Yossarian's quotation of his prediction is that Shadow once made a very much more definite prediction of the Sydney median price..., but would like for everyone to forget about that now
On the contrary, I like to be reminded of it. In fact I think you should include it in your sig.
I believe it may turn out to be more accurate than the revised version.
OK, Question. Today being Thursday, I say to you, "I am having a BBQ next Saturday, do wish to come?" Do you think I mean the Saturday coming or the Saturday after?
I would take it to mean I am inviting you to the BBQ the Saturday after.. Not THIS Saturday but the NEXT one.
I'm with you there. It seems obvious to me. But many disagree. I've had this type of conversation a few times times before:
Me: Do you want to come for a BBQ next Saturday? Them: This Saturday? Me: No, next Saturday. Them: This Saturday? Me: If I meant "this Saturday", I would have said "this Saturday". Them: This Saturday? Me: Actually, I'm not having a BBQ.
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