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When does Shadow's Sydney prediction fall due?; Is five years really six years?
Topic Started: 18 Oct 2012, 11:11 AM (8,418 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Aussiehouseprices
18 Oct 2012, 06:59 PM
Who's Chris?
He's one of Tim's mates.
nipa hut
18 Oct 2012, 07:04 PM
...you'll have to take it up with Yossarian, who recently provided the quote.
Yossarian is too chicken to engage me in debate these days, as I have PWND him so many times in the past. Instead he gets others (like you) to embarrass themselves on his behalf. But his wasn't the quote I was referring to.
Trojan
18 Oct 2012, 07:06 PM
OP needs to add another option.
"I don't care"
I suspect this would have got the most votes.
I suspect you're right, but that wouldn't be as much fun.
Edited by Shadow, 18 Oct 2012, 07:15 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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stinkbug
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It's going to be piss funny if this prediction comes true.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Catweasel
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On the mouzealot prediction, it's blend of prophecy and predict is a entirely consistent. Like many of expert and journalist in a media, mouzealot strive to sound a smart and intelligent to mouse hordes. It not a interest in rigorous the argumentation or a counterintuitive.

Similar to public slaying of a Robert the Schiller when it was a outed because if mouse people listened to him in past they would have lost money as market doubled, the similar trash of Steve the Keen.

Theory of a Catweasel is that in a reality not a many care about a Keen, it more about preservation of the order and vacuous. So mouzealot reference to a Keen is very a similar to mouse mindset in pre-crash America. It much better to side with a prophet or entertainer in a Australia.

So mouzealot's predict based on not its knowledge or a understanding, but its inability to mentally a deal with complex structure and a unknown.
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nipa hut
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Shadow
18 Oct 2012, 07:11 PM
But his wasn't the quote I was referring to.
Oh please, don't leave us guessing!!!

:lol :lol :lol
stinkbug
18 Oct 2012, 07:17 PM
It's going to be piss funny if this prediction comes true.
Which of the many? And by which exact date?

There will be some fun of course, in seeing whether he gets *any* of the various versions of his predictions right.

But there will be even more fun, in the inevitable process of Shadow trying to declare victory no matter what the actual outcome!

* * *

The current debate over whether "2014-2015" means "Jan 1 2014 - Dec 31 2015" (as one might logically expect...), or simply Dec 31 2015 alone, is just the opener.

The real reason Shadow doesn't want to be reminded of Yossarian's quotation of his prediction is that Shadow once made a very much more definite prediction of the Sydney median price..., but would like for everyone to forget about that now...

:lol :lol :lol
Edited by nipa hut, 18 Oct 2012, 07:58 PM.
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Trojan
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stinkbug
18 Oct 2012, 07:17 PM
It's going to be piss funny if this prediction comes true.
It would be even funnier if it went over $1mil - Shadow would then be wrong because he said "approach $1mil" instead of "over $1mil"
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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mango66
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Catweasel
18 Oct 2012, 05:17 PM
Catweasel say one a thing a anti-mouzealots should a respect is personal a beliefs.

In many the ways, a mouzealot reflect all a society, whatever a animal tribe it a belong too. So when it make proclamation, it like the listen to its own voice.

Of the course, it quite the possible that mouzealot proclaim is for its the titilate. So its the react create the pleasure it crave.

If it extend beyond a behavioral, it can learn much from mouzealots. And a many the way, to learn of it is to learn much about itself.
I'm not angry dude. I just get sick of these Internet posters trying to get into the limelight by making ridiculous assertions about house prices in 5 years time. No one knows what will happen in a month let alone 5 years and he says it with conviction. He bases future outcomes on historical data. Unless he can prove he has a time machine it's simply just wasting everyone's time posting bullshit. How can anyone know what will happen that far into the future. All the graphs and articles data etc don't prove anything other than what's happened historically. The future no one knows.
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Strindberg
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stinkbug
18 Oct 2012, 07:17 PM
It's going to be piss funny if this prediction comes true.
Yes, but if it does come true there'll be a whole new bunch of doomsters (the existing ones will have gone to bubblepedia) who will say it wasn't fair because no one could have foreseen the government intervention, low interest rates, or the inflation which led to the prediction being right.

I can hear them now....."in real terms, adjusted for ....bla bla.......this, that and the other......Shadow was wrong......and anyway....the crash is still coming next quarter....or next year.....unless......."
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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mango66
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Shadow
18 Oct 2012, 05:29 PM
LOL, everyone was having fun until angry bear storms in and ruins it with insults... :re:

But since you've drawn attention to yourself, perhaps you could explain the gaping holes revealed by Chris here in the back-history you've invented for yourself?

Your too funny
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nipa hut
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Strindberg
18 Oct 2012, 08:15 PM
Yes, but if it does come true...
...and if it doesn't, or comes close-but-not-really, you'll still have Shadow whining that "2014-2015" is really actually truly logically equivalent "no later than December 31, 2015"

...or that "$1,250,000" really means "approaching $1,000,000", which in turn really really really means $850,000 or thereabouts.

And I have no doubt whatsoever you'll back him up to the hilt...

:lol :lol :lol
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mango66
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Strindberg
18 Oct 2012, 08:15 PM
Yes, but if it does come true there'll be a whole new bunch of doomsters (the existing ones will have gone to bubblepedia) who will say it wasn't fair because no one could have foreseen the government intervention, low interest rates, or the inflation which led to the prediction being right.

I can hear them now....."in real terms, adjusted for ....bla bla.......this, that and the other......Shadow was wrong......and anyway....the crash is still coming next quarter....or next year.....unless......."
Nice one strigburg. That's a crack up. Id like to thank Earthsta for the back up on the buying price. Would give you the address if you like you could check it out. It was around 2000. And prior to selling it I owed about 60- 65 k. I obviously paid my mortgage hard after purchasing it. Sold that house for 170k a little over a year later. Back then i was earning pretty much the same money as now maybe a little less. I've bought a couple more since then as I've obviously moved to QLD but allways bought as a home never as an investment and I am now and have been debt free for about 8 years. It gets hard to remember details exactly back then. I have rented short term in-between purchases and just bought another 4 bedder run down joint about 18 months ago for 265k. By the way your a limp dick and that definitely isn't bullshit. :D
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