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When does Shadow's Sydney prediction fall due?; Is five years really six years?
Topic Started: 18 Oct 2012, 11:11 AM (8,419 Views)
nipa hut
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Lest we forget, Shadow's original prediction was:

"Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000"

Surely, for this to be correct, the Sydney Median Price must be at least $1,250,000 over the entirety of Jan. 1, 2014 - Dec. 31, 2015 inclusive?!?

There are no mitigating fudge factor adjectives in Shadow's prediction, around either the date range or the price!

:lol :lol :lol
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Shadow
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nipa hut
18 Oct 2012, 06:05 PM
"Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000"

Surely, for this to be correct, the Sydney Median Price must be at least $1,250,000 over the entirety of Jan. 1, 2014 - Dec. 31, 2015 inclusive?!?
Incorrect. For that prediction to be correct, the median price must reach a peak of precisely $1,250,000 at some time on or after 1st Jan 2014 but no later than 31st December 2015, and must not exceed that value.
Edited by Shadow, 18 Oct 2012, 06:44 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Andrew Judd
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nipa hut
18 Oct 2012, 06:05 PM
There are no mitigating fudge factor adjectives in Shadow's prediction, around either the date range or the price!

:lol :lol :lol
That seems pretty unreasonable

Shadows boom is likely to have a peak of only a small amount of time sometime in 2014-2015

Anyway as i said earlier if Sydney prices are over 800,000 anytime in 2015 most existing names on this board will not be posting under those names.

Total failure has a way of making people very shy.
Edited by Andrew Judd, 18 Oct 2012, 06:41 PM.
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Shadow
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Can we have more threads about me please? This forum needs more Shadow threads.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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nipa hut
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Shadow
18 Oct 2012, 06:37 PM
Incorrect.

For that to be correct, the median price must be precisely $1,250,000 at some time after 1st Jan 2014 but no later than 31st December 2015.
Incorrect indeed.

I was, as you helpfully point out, too generous in allowing you the "at least"; so yes, it must be exactly $1,250,000 (and certainly not "approaching $1,000,000" instead...)

But you in turn are being too lax about the date range, me bye. "2014-2015" is simply not logically equivalent to "no later than December 31, 2015"!

Rather, "2014-2015" describes the entirety of both calendar years. Do you not agree, my educated friend??

:lol :lol :lol
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Shadow
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nipa hut
18 Oct 2012, 06:47 PM
Do you not agree, my educated friend?
No, I never agree with incorrect statements.

And you appear to have misquoted me above, by the way.
Catweasel
18 Oct 2012, 05:50 PM
On another paw, mouzealot eager to do troll up
I'm never eager to do trollups.
Edited by Shadow, 18 Oct 2012, 06:52 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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nipa hut
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Andrew Judd
18 Oct 2012, 06:38 PM
That seems pretty unreasonable

Shadows boom is likely to have a peak of only a small amount of time sometime in 2014-2015

Anyway as i said earlier if Sydney prices are over 800,000 anytime in 2015 most existing names on this board will not be posting under those names.

Total failure has a way of making people very shy.
But as we've just seen above...

Quote:
 
Incorrect. For that prediction to be correct, the median price must reach a peak of precisely $1,250,000..."
...Shadow himself is a stickler for exactitude when it comes to evaluating predictions, even his own...

If he proves wrong accordingly, he's wrong.

:lol :lol :lol

This is a game to him, as it is to me. He (and Strindberg) have made a hobby of calling out others for typos, terminological inexactitude, or even whopping errors. And neither one spares the whip when they believe that they've caught someone out.

Returning fire is only fair play. And very entertaining, when watching either squirm, wriggle, and obfuscate under pressure!

:lol
Edited by nipa hut, 18 Oct 2012, 06:58 PM.
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Aussiehouseprices
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Shadow
18 Oct 2012, 05:29 PM
LOL, everyone was having fun until angry bear storms in and ruins it with insults... :re:

But since you've drawn attention to yourself, perhaps you could explain the gaping holes revealed by Chris here in the back-history you've invented for yourself?

Who's Chris?
Aussie House Prices blog
Latest post: Real Estate 101 - Lecture 1: Never use the "F" word
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nipa hut
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Shadow
18 Oct 2012, 06:49 PM
No, I never agree with incorrect statements.
So in what conceivable way is "2014-2015" logically equivalent to "no later than December 31, 2015"

Do please provide references!

:lol :lol :lol

As for...
Quote:
 
And you appear to have misquoted me above, by the way.
...you'll have to take it up with Yossarian, who recently provided the quote.
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Trojan
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OP needs to add another option.
"I don't care"

I suspect this would have got the most votes.
Edited by Trojan, 18 Oct 2012, 07:06 PM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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