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When does Shadow's Sydney prediction fall due?; Is five years really six years?
Topic Started: 18 Oct 2012, 11:11 AM (8,421 Views)
earthsta
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muzza
18 Oct 2012, 11:22 AM
The poll will be a good indicator of just how many socks he has in the top drawer :D
That's what I'm thinking ;)
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Shadow
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Aussiehouseprices
18 Oct 2012, 12:22 PM
Despite my sarcastic comment, I actually agree with you in the other thread – that if you say “by 2015”, or “by Friday”, you have until the end of that year/day.

But I disagree with you on the above point. Because you said “for the next 5 years” at the start of the year, the first of the five years includes that year you made the prediction.
Well, in that case I think you need to take both statements together. If you agree that 'by 2015' includes all of 2015, then it should be assumed that the 'next' five years mentioned in the same post also covers all of 2015 (the next year after 2010 being 2011). You can't agree with one statement and disagree with the other, as they both refer to the same prediction

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Imagine going to one of your regular weekend staff retreats, and your manager, Tim Lawless, says on Saturday morning “for the next 2 days, I want you all to come up with new ways to spruik the property market”. Is he talking about Saturday and Sunday, or Sunday and Monday?
It depends on the context. If Tim said to me on Saturday 'today we are going to manipulate auction results, and for the next two days we are going to find new ways to spruik the market', I would assume the new spruiking methods would be covered on Sunday and Monday.

However Tim would never say this, as it is commonly understood that coming up with new ways to spruik is a core responsibility and should be an everyday activity.
Elastic
18 Oct 2012, 12:26 PM
Even if he gets this prediction wrong, it is unlikely it will affect his 80-90% positive prediction record.
Nothing can ever affect that record in a negative way (though it may be improved upon).
Edited by Shadow, 18 Oct 2012, 12:53 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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But you didn't say "By 2015"

You said "4-5 years" and the date you said that was Jan 22, 2010
Edited by earthsta, 18 Oct 2012, 01:27 PM.
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Aussiehouseprices
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Shadow
18 Oct 2012, 12:48 PM
You can't agree with one statement and disagree with the other, as they both refer to the same prediction.
I can - because the statements are inconsistent.

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It depends on the context. If Tim said to me on Saturday 'today we are going to manipulate auction results, and for the next two days we are going to find new ways to spruik the market', I would assume the new spruiking methods would be covered on Sunday and Monday.
But it's a "weekend retreat", not a "long weekend retreat". If Tim said that to you, surely you'd tell him to get stuffed - and that you have to be home by (an unspecified hour on) Sunday.

Quote:
 
However Tim would never say this, as it is commonly understood that coming up with new ways to spruik is a core responsibility and should be an everyday activity.
Good point. :D
Edited by Aussiehouseprices, 18 Oct 2012, 01:17 PM.
Aussie House Prices blog
Latest post: Real Estate 101 - Lecture 1: Never use the "F" word
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

earthsta
18 Oct 2012, 01:12 PM
and the date you said that was Jan 22, 2015
Maths fail again or making shit up again?
You choose.

How could he possibly have said it on Jan 22 2015 when it's 2012 now?
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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earthsta
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Frank Castle
18 Oct 2012, 01:19 PM
Maths fail again or making shit up again?
You choose.

How could he possibly have said it on Jan 22 2015 when it's 2012 now?
typo ... we all know it's 2010
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stinkbug
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earthsta
18 Oct 2012, 01:26 PM
typo ... we all know it's 2010
I think you'll find it's actually 2012.

Do try to keep up! :lol
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Andrew Judd
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My prediction is that if Sydney prices are over 800,000 in 2015 very few of the current names on this board will exist

:pop:
Edited by Andrew Judd, 18 Oct 2012, 02:01 PM.
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Shadow
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earthsta
18 Oct 2012, 01:12 PM
But you didn't say "By 2015"
Well, according to your screenshot I did say precisely that, unless you admit to manipulating the image to insert the word 'by' in front of '2015'?

Why would you do that?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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Shadow
18 Oct 2012, 01:56 PM
Well, according to your screenshot I did say precisely that, unless you admit to manipulating the image to insert the word 'by' in front of '2015'?

Why would you do that?
Jan 22, 2015
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