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When does Shadow's Sydney prediction timeframe end?
Sometime between Jan 22 2014 and Jan 22 2015 8 (20.5%)
Jan 22, 2015 10 (25.6%)
Dec 31, 2015 21 (53.8%)
Total Votes: 39
When does Shadow's Sydney prediction fall due?; Is five years really six years?
Topic Started: 18 Oct 2012, 11:11 AM (8,414 Views)
earthsta
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On Jan 22, 2010, the all knowing Shadow made what seemed to be a bold prediction. Namely, that Sydney house prices would rise over the next 4-5 years to approach $1m.

See below

Posted Image


Most sane, rational people would count five years from the date of the post and come to a logical conclusion of Jan 15, 2015. Shadow begs to differ. Is Shadow innumerate, illogical and irrational?

So the questions is, when exactly is that 4-5 years up?

Have your vote

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Sydneyite
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I think he gets to define what he meant - it's his prediction.

Also, given it is a still a fair way out, he also has the prerogative to change his mind along the way, concede on any past prediction as being incorrect, and make a new one if he wants (which is what you think he is doing). There is no shame in doing this years before your prediction falls due! Many of the doomsayers who got their predictions massively wrong - like SK, didn't conceded there "wrongness" until well after it was very clear they were wrong, and many of their followers still claim they were not wrong at all! Kris Sayce from Money Morning has been wrong on house prices every year since 2010, predicting a massive crash with absolute certainty! He published a special "free" report about it every year and advertised all over the internet! He has never once admitted he was wrong or explained how he got it so wrong? I won't even start on the MB folks.....
Edited by Sydneyite, 18 Oct 2012, 11:59 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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muzza
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The poll will be a good indicator of just how many socks he has in the top drawer :D
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

earthsta
18 Oct 2012, 11:11 AM
Shadow Shadow Shadow
LOL, obsessed much? The 'next' five years after 2010 (when I made the prediction) are 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, and I was quite clear about 2015 being the year by which I predict Sydney house prices will approach $1M. Plus as Sydneyite says, it's my prediction, so I get to clarify any parts you find confusing or unclear.

At the time of writing, 2015 is scheduled to end on 31st December that year, so that is the deadline for my prediction.
Edited by Shadow, 18 Oct 2012, 11:29 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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zaph
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Sydneyite
18 Oct 2012, 11:17 AM

Many of the doomsayers who got their predictions massively wrong - like SK, didn't conceded there "wrongness" until well after it was very clear they were wrong, and many of their followers still claim they were not wrong at all! Kris Sayce from Money Morning has been wrong on house prices every year for since 2010, predicting a massive crash with absolute certainty! He has never once admitted he was wrong or explained who he got it so wrong? I won't even start on the MB folks.....
Quote:
 
I think he gets to define what he meant - it's his prediction.


As long as the prediction is refined within a reasonable period of time that's fine. I haven't followed the minutiae of the discussion, so can't comment on whether that happened.

What if the price exceeds 1m by the debatable period? Will that count as a failure, as shadow didn't say 'will approach or exceed'?

Quote:
 
Also, given it is a still a fair way out, he also has the prerogative to change his mind along the way, concede on any past prediction as being incorrect, and make a new one if he wants (which is what you think he is doing). There is no shame in doing this years before your prediction falls due!


Apart from clarification issues above, if the prediction is changed then it must count towards Shadow's failure rate.

I don't see why either party continues to respond. When someone tells me the sky is red and I believe it is blue, I will explain why it is blue a couple of times and then say nothing.

If I was Earthsda, I'd be trying to pin Shadow down on what 'approaching' means. I suspect neither party wants to define 'approaching' until after the event.

If I had the skills I would start a poll questioning 'approaching'. Anything in the nines, to me, would be 'approaching'.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

this is the opposite methodology to the time earthsta screwed up shadow's RPData weekly update and claimed he was counting 8 days.

earthsta, chronologically challenged....
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Simon
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zaph
18 Oct 2012, 11:59 AM
When someone tells me the sky is red and I believe it is blue, I will explain why it is blue a couple of times and then say nothing.
Quote:
 
The sky is clear and transparent - just like it is at night when the moon and stars shine through it without being altered in their color. The blue color of the sky is due to Rayleigh scattering. As light moves through the atmosphere, most of the longer wavelengths pass straight through. Little of the red, orange and yellow light is affected by the air.

However, much of the shorter wavelength light is absorbed by the gas molecules. The absorbed blue light is then radiated in different directions. It gets scattered all around the sky. Whichever direction you look, some of this scattered blue light reaches you. Since you see the blue light from everywhere overhead, the sky looks blue.

As the sun begins to set, the light must travel farther through the atmosphere before it gets to you. More of the light is reflected and scattered. As less reaches you directly, the sun appears less bright. The color of the sun itself appears to change, first to orange and then to red. This is because even more of the short wavelength blues and greens are now scattered. Only the longer wavelengths are left in the direct beam that reaches your eyes.
Edited by Simon, 18 Oct 2012, 12:13 PM.
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Aussiehouseprices
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Shadow
18 Oct 2012, 11:23 AM
The 'next' five years after 2010 (when I made the prediction) are 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
Despite my sarcastic comment, I actually agree with you in the other thread – that if you say “by 2015”, or “by Friday”, you have until the end of that year/day.

But I disagree with you on the above point. Because you said “for the next 5 years” at the start of the year, the first of the five years includes that year you made the prediction.

Imagine going to one of your regular weekend staff retreats, and your manager, Tim Lawless, says on Saturday morning “for the next 2 days, I want you all to come up with new ways to spruik the property market”. Is he talking about Saturday and Sunday, or Sunday and Monday?

Edited by Aussiehouseprices, 18 Oct 2012, 12:24 PM.
Aussie House Prices blog
Latest post: Real Estate 101 - Lecture 1: Never use the "F" word
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Elastic
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Even if he gets this prediction wrong, it is unlikely it will affect his 80-90% positive prediction record.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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stinkbug
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It's an enigma wrapped in a conundrum.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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