On Jan 22, 2010, the all knowing Shadow made what seemed to be a bold prediction. Namely, that Sydney house prices would rise over the next 4-5 years to approach $1m.
See below
Most sane, rational people would count five years from the date of the post and come to a logical conclusion of Jan 15, 2015. Shadow begs to differ. Is Shadow innumerate, illogical and irrational?
So the questions is, when exactly is that 4-5 years up?
I think he gets to define what he meant - it's his prediction.
Also, given it is a still a fair way out, he also has the prerogative to change his mind along the way, concede on any past prediction as being incorrect, and make a new one if he wants (which is what you think he is doing). There is no shame in doing this years before your prediction falls due! Many of the doomsayers who got their predictions massively wrong - like SK, didn't conceded there "wrongness" until well after it was very clear they were wrong, and many of their followers still claim they were not wrong at all! Kris Sayce from Money Morning has been wrong on house prices every year since 2010, predicting a massive crash with absolute certainty! He published a special "free" report about it every year and advertised all over the internet! He has never once admitted he was wrong or explained how he got it so wrong? I won't even start on the MB folks.....
LOL, obsessed much? The 'next' five years after 2010 (when I made the prediction) are 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, and I was quite clear about 2015 being the year by which I predict Sydney house prices will approach $1M. Plus as Sydneyite says, it's my prediction, so I get to clarify any parts you find confusing or unclear.
At the time of writing, 2015 is scheduled to end on 31st December that year, so that is the deadline for my prediction.
Many of the doomsayers who got their predictions massively wrong - like SK, didn't conceded there "wrongness" until well after it was very clear they were wrong, and many of their followers still claim they were not wrong at all! Kris Sayce from Money Morning has been wrong on house prices every year for since 2010, predicting a massive crash with absolute certainty! He has never once admitted he was wrong or explained who he got it so wrong? I won't even start on the MB folks.....
Quote:
I think he gets to define what he meant - it's his prediction.
As long as the prediction is refined within a reasonable period of time that's fine. I haven't followed the minutiae of the discussion, so can't comment on whether that happened.
What if the price exceeds 1m by the debatable period? Will that count as a failure, as shadow didn't say 'will approach or exceed'?
Quote:
Also, given it is a still a fair way out, he also has the prerogative to change his mind along the way, concede on any past prediction as being incorrect, and make a new one if he wants (which is what you think he is doing). There is no shame in doing this years before your prediction falls due!
Apart from clarification issues above, if the prediction is changed then it must count towards Shadow's failure rate.
I don't see why either party continues to respond. When someone tells me the sky is red and I believe it is blue, I will explain why it is blue a couple of times and then say nothing.
If I was Earthsda, I'd be trying to pin Shadow down on what 'approaching' means. I suspect neither party wants to define 'approaching' until after the event.
If I had the skills I would start a poll questioning 'approaching'. Anything in the nines, to me, would be 'approaching'.
When someone tells me the sky is red and I believe it is blue, I will explain why it is blue a couple of times and then say nothing.
Quote:
The sky is clear and transparent - just like it is at night when the moon and stars shine through it without being altered in their color. The blue color of the sky is due to Rayleigh scattering. As light moves through the atmosphere, most of the longer wavelengths pass straight through. Little of the red, orange and yellow light is affected by the air.
However, much of the shorter wavelength light is absorbed by the gas molecules. The absorbed blue light is then radiated in different directions. It gets scattered all around the sky. Whichever direction you look, some of this scattered blue light reaches you. Since you see the blue light from everywhere overhead, the sky looks blue.
As the sun begins to set, the light must travel farther through the atmosphere before it gets to you. More of the light is reflected and scattered. As less reaches you directly, the sun appears less bright. The color of the sun itself appears to change, first to orange and then to red. This is because even more of the short wavelength blues and greens are now scattered. Only the longer wavelengths are left in the direct beam that reaches your eyes.
The 'next' five years after 2010 (when I made the prediction) are 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
Despite my sarcastic comment, I actually agree with you in the other thread – that if you say “by 2015”, or “by Friday”, you have until the end of that year/day.
But I disagree with you on the above point. Because you said “for the next 5 years” at the start of the year, the first of the five years includes that year you made the prediction.
Imagine going to one of your regular weekend staff retreats, and your manager, Tim Lawless, says on Saturday morning “for the next 2 days, I want you all to come up with new ways to spruik the property market”. Is he talking about Saturday and Sunday, or Sunday and Monday?
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy