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Do Not Buy Australian Real Estate; 5 undeniable reasons to be wary!
Topic Started: 8 Oct 2012, 11:57 AM (19,345 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Timo
8 Oct 2012, 11:57 AM
Here are just 5 reasons it has NEVER been a worse time to buy real estate in Australia.

1: Housing Finance: At a 35 year low! Who is taking out the loans? Perhaps a few wealthy fools with more money then sense, hence the alleged "increase in capital house prices". Debunked.

2: New home sales: At a 15 year low! The typical victims the Australian Ponzi Scheme relies most heavily on - FHB - can't afford to pay 500k for a flimsy box in the middle of no where anymore. Which brings me to my next point.

3: Building company collapse: Building companies folding at record pace, on the east coast of Australia alone in March of this year 80 building companies went under! Adding to our increasing unemployment rate by the fistful.

4: Increasing unemployment: Forget the ABS 5.1%!!! They classify an employed person as working more then 1 hour of paid work per week! 1 Hour!!! Roy Morgan is a much better bet at 10% identifies both those unemployed and underemployed (the ones living off 1 hour p/week!). Look also to the drop in retail spending, where is it going? Straight to the banks in interest, while companies go under and jobs are lost.

5: Mining slowdown: This is a biggie and well known. Discussed on here in a previous thread, this spells major trouble for the continued wealth and success of Australia. Apart from income lost, jobs are going too. BHP didn't delay a multi-billion dollar expansion for nothing, these guys don't make a killing by making stupid decisions. They know the game is up, and mining will never be the same again.

Don't despair however folks, the market is poised to crash, poised to revert to the long term trend and restore some balance and equity in the Australian economy. So my message is continue to watch your healthy deposits grow and grow, while house prices come down and down.
Whatever happened to Timo?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Shadow
2 Sep 2015, 09:24 PM
Whatever happened to Timo?
The WA bears will be asking the same question about you next year as prices continue to fall.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Veritas
2 Sep 2015, 10:42 PM
The WA bears will be asking the same question about you next year as prices continue to fall.
?

I don't have any property in WA.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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The Whole Truth
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I think what Veritas means shadow is that the perth bulls, who have more balls that you sydney bulls, will still be here after you have gassed yourself in the garage over sydney's falls.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The Whole Truth
3 Sep 2015, 12:18 AM
I think what Veritas means shadow is that the perth bulls, who have more balls that you sydney bulls, will still be here after you have gassed yourself in the garage over sydney's falls.
Since 2007 bears have been telling me I'd vanish at the first sign of falls.

Sydney fell in 2008, and from mid-2010 to mid-2012, and I stuck around.

Even in 2012 there were a several bears here, including FrankRider and Goldbug, who said I'd soon vanish.

Those bears have all vanished now or created new socks for themselves, cowards that they are.

I'm still here.
Edited by Shadow, 3 Sep 2015, 12:28 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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The Whole Truth
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Posted Image
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Veritas
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Shadow
3 Sep 2015, 12:00 AM
?

I don't have any property in WA.
Doesnt stop you making harebrained predictions about Perth property having a 1million median by 2020.

Because of the "cycle" or something.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Matthew
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Veritas
3 Sep 2015, 01:00 AM
Doesnt stop you making harebrained predictions about Perth property having a 1million median by 2020.

$750,000 is possible. Particularly with no land being sold according to Jim. $1m is not. Economy will not support $1m in WA yet, to do so far flung shitholes like Warnbro would need to be able to access the city inside of one hour, impossible.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
3 Sep 2015, 02:01 AM
Particularly with no land being sold according to Jim.
According to REIWA and Landgate.

Block sales have been dismal and there is no supply problem.

Yes Mathew, at some point in the future, low block sales may lead to a tightening of supply.

But as usual Mathew, you forget that building houses is a major source of employment in WA. Building fewer houses will mean fewer jobs, even fewer migrants and a big fall in demand for houses.

But you always dodge that point don't you Matey.

You prefer to think about the cake at the end of the meal and forget that your mum will make you eat all of your soggy sprouts before she serves the cake.

Soggy sprouts always come before cake Mateboy.

Edited by Jimbo, 3 Sep 2015, 05:16 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Jimbo
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Shadow
3 Sep 2015, 12:20 AM
Since 2007 bears have been telling me I'd vanish at the first sign of falls.

Sydney fell in 2008, and from mid-2010 to mid-2012, and I stuck around.

Even in 2012 there were a several bears here, including FrankRider and Goldbug, who said I'd soon vanish.

Those bears have all vanished now or created new socks for themselves, cowards that they are.

I'm still here.
You are still here because you need to be.

Like any ad funded forum, you need a hit count.

So a bunch of bulls/bears agreeing with eachother isn't great for business.

Handshakes don't pull in the punters but fistfights fill stadiums.

So if the bulls run and hide after a beating, you jump in to keep the fight going (and the hit count up).

Not a bad business model. Just accept that the majority of us on here understand that this is an ad funded forum and we are the free entertainment.

There are other places we could hang out.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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