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Steve Keen proves Australian Housing Bubble Collapse is following JAPAN slow bleed exactly!; Japan's Property Prices Fall for 21st Straight year
Topic Started: 2 Aug 2012, 02:54 PM (14,660 Views)
peter fraser
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newjez
3 Aug 2012, 06:46 PM
mel
3 Aug 2012, 06:05 PM
Ah - I remember the days when I could drink red wine. Couldn't cope with the headaches any longer though.
that's a shame, have you tried typewriter cleaning fluid on ice?

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mel
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newjez
3 Aug 2012, 06:46 PM
Ah - I remember the days when I could drink red wine. Couldn't cope with the headaches any longer though.
The trick is to drink as much as possible very quickly..
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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peter fraser
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mel
3 Aug 2012, 06:53 PM
newjez
3 Aug 2012, 06:46 PM
Ah - I remember the days when I could drink red wine. Couldn't cope with the headaches any longer though.
The trick is to drink as much as possible very quickly..
newjez will be ever so grateful for all of this wisdom mel.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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mel
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peter fraser
3 Aug 2012, 06:55 PM
newjez will be ever so grateful for all of this wisdom mel.
ha ha! I should think so... it is great advice for all
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themoops
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I think it's a bit desperate for Keen to start using "real" and "nominal" and whatever. 99% of people don't think in those terms and don't fine tune their investments to that degree.

All they see is $500k for a dogbox. $500k is still pretty much just as much a shit load of money in 2000 as it is in 2012.

Keen has lost again!

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Edited by themoops, 3 Aug 2012, 08:56 PM.
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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mel
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themoops
3 Aug 2012, 08:53 PM
I think it's a bit desperate for Keen to start using "real" and "nominal" and whatever. 99% of people don't think in those terms and don't fine tune their investments to that degree.
very good point moops.. the only constant is the actual number owing on any given loan
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Admin
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Quote:
 
We still have a housing bubble, but rising debt unexpected – Steve Keen

By Larry Schlesinger
Friday, 03 August 2012

Bearish economist Steve Keen remains emphatic there is a housing bubble in Australia, but says high debt levels are keeping it from deflating.

Following the release of ABS June house price indices showing a quarterly gain of 0.5% and big revisions to the March figures suggesting no fall, Keen admitted that he had got it wrong on households deleveraging

“…it appears that [house prices rose] because mortgage debt has accelerated. So I guessed wrong” he tweeted on August 1.

Yesterday, Keen adjusted his views on the rate of decline of Australian house prices blogging that Australian house prices declines were now tracking the “slow bleed of Japan, but nowhere near the decline experienced in the USA”.

“By this point—two years after house prices peaked—US prices were down by just over 20%. Instead, Australian prices are down by just over 9%, which is indistinguishable from the Japanese fall of just under 8.9% at the same point in its house price deflation,” Keen blogged.

Then with a heavy dose of irony he went on to note the differences between Australia and the US could be that “There is no Australian house price bubble.”

But this comment though was preceded by an “irony alert.”

And today he confirmed to Property Observer that he is still very bearish on the housing market.

“I was being ironic: I'm emphatic that there is a debt-driven bubble, and the only reason it hasn't deflated is because debt levels have remained high,” he said.

Keen says this acceleration in debt levels won’t last and he will provide his reasons when he next blogs in the coming weeks – he is currently recovering from knee surgery.

Australian Financial Review columnist Christopher Joye has hit back at Keen's contention that Australian mortgage debt has accelerated in a post on his own blog.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/trends/we-still-have-a-housing-bubble-but-rising-debt-unexpected-%E2%80%93-steve-keen/2012080255843
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

fuck where did keen get his degree's from, a corn flakes packet?
"Bearish economist Steve Keen remains emphatic there is a housing bubble in Australia, but says high debt levels are keeping it from deflating."

our ability to pay back the debt level is obviously not a problem since it's been 10 years that we have been tracking at these levels and there been no crash. it's like he completely ignores the fact we can keep paying off our debts and just focuses on the debt.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Aussiehouseprices
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timmy
4 Aug 2012, 02:32 PM
fuck where did keen get his degree's from, a corn flakes packet?
"Bearish economist Steve Keen remains emphatic there is a housing bubble in Australia, but says high debt levels are keeping it from deflating."

our ability to pay back the debt level is obviously not a problem since it's been 10 years that we have been tracking at these levels and there been no crash. it's like he completely ignores the fact we can keep paying off our debts and just focuses on the debt.
I wouldn't say we have been tracking at these levels for 10 years. Mortgage debt to GDP house doubled in the last 10 years.
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mel
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“By this point—two years after house prices peaked—US prices were down by just over 20%. Instead, Australian prices are down by just over 9%,
which is indistinguishable from the Japanese fall of just under 8.9% at the same point in its house price deflation,” Keen blogged.

Our market has always overshot both ways. Surely there has been a point in history where our prices have fallen back by a similar amount from the cycles peak? At least if his disciples now believe the bottom will be in 20 years or more they might consider all their options, which has to be a healthier than relying on something that may or may not happen.
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