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Steve Keen proves Australian Housing Bubble Collapse is following JAPAN slow bleed exactly!; Japan's Property Prices Fall for 21st Straight year
Topic Started: 2 Aug 2012, 02:54 PM (14,661 Views)
Strindberg
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Steve Keen yesterday:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/08/02/australian-house-prices-update-june-2012/

Quote:
 
What it means is that the trend for decelerating mortgage debt has temporarily reversed.
....
.....mortgage debt accelerated over the most recent months, even though the rate of growth of mortgage debt continued to decline.
....
Even though mortgage growth in CPI-deflated terms is at historic lows, it is growing more quickly now than it was at the end of 2012.
....
Mortgage acceleration has thus risen,
.....
This rising acceleration in turn has fed through to rising prices over the last few months...
....
The uptick in the mortgage accelerator since the beginning of 2012.......
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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nofriends
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peter fraser
2 Aug 2012, 08:32 PM
Steve and Peter Switzer went to uni together.

I wouldn't say that bears have lost yet, but it hasn't been a great couple of days for them. However it's not houses to the moon either is it?
One could say it hasn't been the best 5 quarters for the bulls Peter.

Ok - positive results in dec 2010 and the recent report but what about the big picture and the downward trend in prices?

Anyone calling this a reversal this early on in time is acting very unwise.
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Stavros
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Strindberg
3 Aug 2012, 05:12 PM
Nice hatchet job on Keen Stringturd...

Here is all you need to know from the article you mangled...

"But to cause a sustained rise in house prices, Australians would need to not merely not delever, but to lever up from the current historically high debt levels—since it takes accelerating mortgage debt to cause house prices to rise."

So you cant boast all you want about a nominal increase of 0.5 for the quarter, but Keen can rest knowing his debt-deflation theories are playing out across the world, including Australia

Basically Keen was pointing out that we are not dropping the way the US did because we Ozzies are so brainwashed that leverage and property is a winning combination, that we deleveraging slower than other nations.

This just means when there is an awakening, our bust will be all the more rapid.

Keep taking quotes out of context and rallying up the few bulls still remaining in Oz. Your time is nearly over
Edited by Stavros, 3 Aug 2012, 05:27 PM.
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newjez
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Looking at Japan's slow burn, then accepting that Aust has a slow burn and trying to match the two seems to be a bit dim witted. Aussie housing prices will follow their own path as Aust is an individual in the world. There are few countries with a similar make up of industry and population. I can think of few countries as dissimilar than Japan and Australia on so many levels. Any comparisons are surely co incidence?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Ex BP Golly
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Shadow
3 Aug 2012, 12:03 AM


Bears seem to assume that the Australian property boom (that ended in 2003) launched Australia into a massive bubble.

But after that boom, Australia's current price/income ratio, and price/rent ratio, are still middle of the road by global standards.

There is nothing particularly high about Australian ratios... http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp

Furthermore, those ratios have been more or less static for a decade now.
And then Strinberg does backing bear vocals to support you on this contention by posting the bloomberg chart reflecting rpdata that shows house price to income ratios went up a further 1 times (from 3 to 4.1} in the last decade, countering your statement, and his own footer that "house prices have remained virtually unchanged since 2004"

I just love you bears. :lol

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WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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peter fraser
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nofriends
3 Aug 2012, 05:22 PM
peter fraser
2 Aug 2012, 08:32 PM
Steve and Peter Switzer went to uni together.

I wouldn't say that bears have lost yet, but it hasn't been a great couple of days for them. However it's not houses to the moon either is it?
One could say it hasn't been the best 5 quarters for the bulls Peter.

Ok - positive results in dec 2010 and the recent report but what about the big picture and the downward trend in prices?

Anyone calling this a reversal this early on in time is acting very unwise.
Yes I more or less agree with that. I think that the question is whether this is a bottom or a false bottom, and seriously none of us will know until it has passed.

But you should concede that it could be a bottom.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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mel
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Peter, it's friday. Allow me.... http://www.redwineexperience.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/bottle-of-red-wine.jpg

APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Ex BP Golly
3 Aug 2012, 05:59 PM
And then Strinberg does backing bear vocals to support you on this contention by posting the bloomberg chart reflecting rpdata that shows house price to income ratios went up a further 1 times (from 3 to 4.1} in the last decade, countering your statement, and his own footer that "house prices have remained virtually unchanged since 2004"
You are confusing price with affordability, or the price/income ratio.

House prices have obviously risen over the past decade, but so have incomes, at roughly the same rate.

So affordability, or housing costs as a proportion of income, has remained more or less unchanged over the past decade.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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peter fraser
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mel
3 Aug 2012, 06:05 PM
Well you have my vote mel.

Best post all day.


Posted Image

Come on guys, stop bickering, this one's on mel.
Edited by peter fraser, 3 Aug 2012, 06:48 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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newjez
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mel
3 Aug 2012, 06:05 PM
Ah - I remember the days when I could drink red wine. Couldn't cope with the headaches any longer though.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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