That Keen doesnt get that is hardly something for you bull clowns to get orgasmic over!
He should really be putting disclaimers in his pieces then. Government intervention always seems to work and it doesn't cost a lot.
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
Smug arsed property bulls attack Keen on the basis that he didn't predict that they would be turned into the equivalant of dole bludgers, with their investment choices only surviving because of massive amounts of public monies injected to prop up the market.
RMBS through AOFM, bank guarantees, first home owner grants, building the education revolution, pink batts, solar panels, tax exemptions, stamp duty cuts, social housing initiative, interest rate manipulation, lies about inflation rates, lies about unemployment, blah blah blah......
It's just so incredibly funny how evil infestors are!
Clearly you have forgotten that Steve called for zero interest rates and stimulus. We didn't get zero rates but we did get the stimulus he called for.
You could say that he didn't calculate the effect of the stimulus that he called for, but you can't say he didn't know it was happening. As for your claim that property owners became dole bludgers, which I presume means that they benefitted from the stimulus, you need to remember that the bulk of the stimulus went to ordinary tax payers and schools, not to home owners or landlords. Homeowners including landlords did benefit from lower rates, which Steve knew were on the way.
Why don't you post with a little less emotion and a lot less incorrect facts?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Steve said on his blog he'll post his source tomorrow
In the meantime I found this one from Bank of Japan
I'm looking forward to seeing his source.
He wrote this last night on his blog:
Quote:
Steve Keen August 3, 2012 at 12:19 am | #
I saw that 33% fall claim to and it sounds to me like they confused the stock market (or Tokyo alone) with Japanese house prices. I’ll link to my data tomorrow–post operation sleep time now.
It's good to know that he's reading my posts but it would be better if he was more attentive and desisted from making stuff up. I resent false accusations being made against me. If you read my post it is obvious I was not referring to the stock market or Tokyo alone. I made it very clear I was referring to the Japanese government data for the 6 major city residential land prices. This is what I wrote:
Quote:
There's no official house price data for Japan but there is official government land price info available here.
Data comparable to the 8 cap city data in Australia would be the land price data for the 6 major cities residential index here in column I.
Keen says his Japan line begins mid 1991. The index in that table for 1991 is 223.4 and for 1993 it's 149.1, giving a fall of 33.3%
So residential land prices in Japan's 6 major cities fell by 33.3% from peak in two years. Ok, houses might not have fallen that much but I'd be surprised if the land dropped 33.3% but the house prices dropped only 9% as Keen claims.
I have been open and revealed my official data source which everyone can check without paying. It's time for Keen to do the same. It is not appropriate to compare the all Japan index with the ABS 8 cap city index. The Japanese government publishes the Japan 6 major city index. That seems the most appropriate.
Clearly you have forgotten that Steve called for zero interest rates and stimulus. We didn't get zero rates but we did get the stimulus he called for.
You could say that he didn't calculate the effect of the stimulus that he called for, but you can't say he didn't know it was happening. As for your claim that property owners became dole bludgers, which I presume means that they benefitted from the stimulus, you need to remember that the bulk of the stimulus went to ordinary tax payers and schools, not to home owners or landlords. Homeowners including landlords did benefit from lower rates, which Steve knew were on the way.
Why don't you post with a little less emotion and a lot less incorrect facts?
It was all designed to prop up builders and contractors, and real estate agents, so as to stop what would have been an inevitable pop in house prices (imagine all those bmw driving tradies out working for proper remuneration!)
You are wrong to say "schools got it", schools got $50,000 covered arenas that you could pick up from companies like wide span sheds, that then cost $300,000+ to erect.
Earlier this week infamous housing commentator Steve Keen acknowledged that he "guessed wrong" on Australian house prices following the ABS's confirmation that they were rising again. (The ABS estimates they were flat in Q1 and appreciating in Q2).
Keen had repeatedly forecast on the record that the rate of Australian house prices falls, which started in 2011, would begin 'accelerating'. He also confidently stated that he would "let the data do the talking". Of course, as I anticipated here, nothing remotely like Keen's prediction has materialised. (Nor, disappointingly, has he allowed the house price data to do the talking.)
Keen attributed his latest error to the claim that Australian "mortgage debt has accelerated." His exact words on Twitter. Now, this has only one meaning: credit growth has increased. There is no other way you can interpret the statement. Unfortunately for Keen, this was also wrong: the rate at which housing credit has been expanding has not been accelerating at all. The chart below shows the official monthly housing credit growth data from the RBA. Observe how the bars trend downwards since 2009. (As we've long argued, housing credit growth has been tracking household income growth since about 2006.)
Recognising this new mistake, which was forcefully pointed out by economist and former Gillard advisor, Stephen Koukoulas, amongst several others, Keen then proceeded to explain that, no, he was not actually talking about credit growth per se. He was talking about the "change in the change" in housing credit. Actually, he was not even talking about the change in the change. In this post Keen explains he was referring to, "the change in the change in mortgage debt over a year, divided by GDP at the midpoint of that year."
Keen says he wants to be judged against the ABS house price index. He's made three high profile forecasts. One was for a 40% decline in Aussie house prices in 2008, which he seems to have subsequently modified to a 20% correction. And then he confidently informed us the rate at which prices were falling in 2011 and 2012 would 'accelerate'. You can see the first two forecasts highlighted by the stars in the chart below.
The bottom line is that Aussie house prices are currently 9% higher than when he originally made his prediction. The losses have not accelerated. They have, in fact, stopped, for the time being, with prices rising again.
Finally, I note that Keen is now starting to refer to house price growth after deducting consumer price inflation, or 'real' as opposed to actual or 'nominal' house prices. Yet he has previously clarified that his forecasts--and his bet with Rory Robertson--related to nominal (ie, actual) house prices, not house price growth after inflation. I sense some goal-post shifting.
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