Still waiting for Keen to reveal the data source of the Japanese prices which form the whole basis of the OP.
Still waiting.
This was the chart Steve Keen created and posted on his blog.
That chart shows Japan house prices down less than 10% two years after peak and down only about 15% four years after peak. Steve Keen is using that to claim that Australia's house price fall is the same as Japan's so its fair enough to ask for Keen's data source. Keen's credibility is on the line here. It appears that he is making stuff up to justify his scare message.
Chris Becker of Macrobusiness has now added to the suspicion that Keen's chart is false.
That data corresponds with the now discontinued Japan Residential Housing Price Index:Metro area (JRHPMMET) which was down 31% from end of 1990 to end of 1993.
So, the Japanese government say metro house prices fell 31% in 3 years from peak according to Becker. Steve Keen says they fell only ~15% in four years from peak. Who is most likely to be correct?
Although land and home prices continue to drop in Japan, the latest decrease has been the smallest in 21 years of declining values, according to the most recent report from Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.
Low interest rates and tax incentives are supporting a housing demand in the island country of 128 million residents.
The nationwide average price slid 2.7 percent as of July 1, compared with a 3.4 percent decline a year earlier. The peak of Japan's bubble economy arrived in the 1980s. .Japan's government expanded rebates for homebuyers in 2009 to boost sales, giving a 10-year tax break on properties bought before 2014.
The drop in land values may ease further, helped by demand before a planned consumption tax increase, the nation's first since 1997
Bloomberg reports Masanobu Komoda, president of Mitsui Fudosan Co., Japan's largest developer by sales. as saying, "The recovery trend in land prices has become clearer. As the government plans to increase the consumption tax, we would like to see additional measures to support and boost housing demand."
The drop in commercial land prices narrowed to 3.1 percent from 4 percent a year earlier, while the decrease in residential values slowed to 2.5 percent from 3.2 percent, the land ministry's data showed.
Property acquisitions by Japan's real estate investment trusts, known as J-REITs, have also supported prices. Assets bought by J-REITs expanded at the fastest pace in four years, rising 8.8 percent to 8.7 trillion yen ($111 billion) as of June 30 from a year earlier, according to Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute Co., a Tokyo-based consulting company.
Moody's Japan K.K, however, maintains in a recent report, credit worthiness of Japanese real estate operating companies and J-REITs as well as commercial mortgage backed securities deals will remain weak in the medium term because cash flows from office buildings, which make up the majority of their portfolio, will continue to decline.
"The demand for office buildings in Tokyo will remain lukewarm, owing to anemic economic growth, exacerbated by oversupply," the New York City-based rating company said in the report. "The latter will result from a build-up in inventory in 2012."
Declines in prices in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, the three major metropolitan areas, slowed to 1 percent, from a drop of 1.9 percent a year earlier, according to the report. Prices in rural districts slipped 3.4 percent from a 4 percent slump a year earlier.
The most expensive piece of commercial property remained in Tokyo's Ginza shopping district, where land can cost up to 19.7 million yen per square meter. Tokyo's Chiyoda ward, where the Imperial Palace is located, had the nation's priciest residential land at 2.78 million yen ($35,682 US) per square meter or $383,938 per square foot (One square meter equals 10.76 square feet).
Suck it up stringburd and swallow , Steve Keen blows your spruiker theories out of the water, Aussie house prices down 9%, smack in line with JAPAN crash.
And we know how that ended up, face it bulls, your toast ! I strongly predict there'll be no bulls left on this forum come the end of the year..................
Does anyone know if we're still following the Japan crash?
I don't think Steve Keen has updated this chart for a while...
Does anyone know if we're still following the Japan crash?
I don't think Steve Keen has updated this chart for a while...
I'm pretty sure that Steve has moved on from his calls on a crash of Aussie real estate since he took his overseas job.
Mahamed has vanished into the ether never to be seen again.
Steve is convinced that the measure of debt is a guide to long term financial stability but he doesn't seem to factor in the cost of that debt in our current monetary system, and nor does he pay much attention to who is holding the endogenous money created by that debt.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy