Ben D

4 Jul 2012, 01:15 PM

A good place to start is Christopher Joye's bullish position on property. His unrelenting position seems like he would do anything to make the numbers look good (kind of like a few people around here) which detracts from his credibility.

Ben D

4 Jul 2012, 02:02 PM

I understand what he is trying to sell, but it is simply not a daily index even if he calls it one.

Quote:

 

The RP Data-Rismark Daily Home Value Index aims to measure daily movements in the value of Australian housing markets. Rather than relying solely on transacted sale prices to provide a measure of housing market conditions, the RP Data-Rismark Daily Home Value Index is based on a ‘hedonic’ methodology which includes the attributes of properties that are transacting as part of the analysis. Understanding factors such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, the land area and the geographic context of the property allows for a much more accurate analysis of the true value of movements across specific housing markets. This method also allows for compositional change in consumer buying patterns when measuring capital gains.

The RP Data-Rismark Daily Home Value Index provides daily capital growth measurements across three broad housing types: houses, units’ and a “combined dwellings” index that includes both houses and units. The index results are released daily for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane (including Gold Coast), Adelaide, Perth and the combined capitals, which is a composite of these cities. Historical back series are available on a subscription basis.

Mr Griffin

4 Jul 2012, 02:19 PM

I didn't read posts after the first couple but the fact that you are all arguing about daily, monthly or even yearly indices shows that you are really missing the forest from the trees here. There is much, much larger things at play here than our short term house price movements that will have a massive change to life as we know it going forward.

But yes Stingberg, he said 1 percent when it was meant to be 1 point on the index scale. So that means house prices to moon...you fucking tool.

kennyjaiz

4 Jul 2012, 01:07 PM

Again, what do you mean by "weak" methodology?
http://christopherjoye.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/house-price-indices-for-dummies-redux.html



I don't claim to understand RPdata's Daily Index methodology. But I also don't tend to pass judgement on something I have little to no idea about. It would be good to understand how you evaluate the efficacy of their methodology.

TheRazorsEdge

4 Jul 2012, 08:20 PM

Christopher Joye cannot even read a simple chart:
http://christopherjoye.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/aussie-banks-most-profitable-in-world.html

I hope he is not in anyway personally involved with the creation or measurement of the index.

Ah wait, from the article you reference he says this:
The new daily index was designed by a team of PhD-qualified mathematicians and statisticians over a period of three years.

Thank god he wasn't involved.

Seriously though, it was quite an interesting read. What I get from the article is that their hedonic measurement will form the basis for the daily index, it doesn't mention what independent variables will be used however.

miw

4 Jul 2012, 08:33 PM

Is this what you were looking for under "independent variables"? (They call these the "hedonic variables" in the methodology paper.

Suburb
Land size (m2) if property type = house
Street classification (highway, main road, cul de sac etc.)
Property type (eg. free standing house, semi etc. for houses)
Number of bedrooms
Number of bathrooms
Number of car spaces
Pool (Y/N)
Waterfront (Y/N)
Air Conditioning (Y/N)
View (Y/N)

TheRazorsEdge

4 Jul 2012, 09:28 PM

For me the first three of those variables plus (1) Proximity to train station/major bus route (2) Proximity to primary school would be enough.

Quote:

 

The house price data the RBA uses: Christopher Joye

By Christopher Joye
Wednesday, 04 July 2012

After each monthly board meeting, the RBA publishes its official "chart pack", which is a detailed 30-page presentation on the Australian economy that it uses to brief members.

The RBA's chart pack includes one chart on Australian house prices, covering the individual capital cities, a national weighted average of the capital cities, and a rest of state index.

For many years the RBA used to only use the ABS house price data in this chart. Some time ago the RBA switched to RP Data-Rismark. RP Data-Rismark's new daily house price index is the only house price data used by the RBA in the chart pack. Specifically, the RBA takes the daily index number for the end of each month, and then seasonally adjusts the data over time. (The RBA was also consulted as part of the daily index development process.)

The chart below was published by the RBA yesterday. It illustrates RP Data-Rismark's daily index data through to the end of May (i.e., it does not include the latest June data). Further to my post here on different house price measures, I would note that the RBA's team of 100-plus economists can use whatever house price data that they deem provides the best possible insights into the market.

In every quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy the RBA chooses to report three different indices – from RP Data-Rismark, APM and the ABS – although the charts in the SMP, and the RBA's official conclusions in the text, all normally reference the RP Data-Rismark findings.

For the avoidance of doubt, the RBA does not rely exclusively on any one index provider. The RBA inspects and analyses at least three (i.e., RP Data-Rismark, APM and the ABS). But given the significant differences in the technical methods, it has developed preferences over time.



Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/rba-rate-decision/the-rbas-official-house-price-data-comes-from-rp-data-rismark-christopher-joye

miw

4 Jul 2012, 08:33 PM

Is this what you were looking for under "independent variables"? (They call these the "hedonic variables" in the methodology paper.

Suburb
Land size (m2) if property type = house
Street classification (highway, main road, cul de sac etc.)
Property type (eg. free standing house, semi etc. for houses)
Number of bedrooms
Number of bathrooms
Number of car spaces
Pool (Y/N)
Waterfront (Y/N)
Air Conditioning (Y/N)
View (Y/N)

miw

4 Jul 2012, 08:33 PM

Is this what you were looking for under "independent variables"? (They call these the "hedonic variables" in the methodology paper.

Suburb
Land size (m2) if property type = house
Street classification (highway, main road, cul de sac etc.)
Property type (eg. free standing house, semi etc. for houses)
Number of bedrooms
Number of bathrooms
Number of car spaces
Pool (Y/N)
Waterfront (Y/N)
Air Conditioning (Y/N)
View (Y/N)

The Punisher

5 Jul 2012, 02:52 PM

Gotta laugh at the ones here who front run Chris Joye.

Doesn't make it any less convincing that they aren't Chris Joye.

Aussiehouseprices

5 Jul 2012, 01:52 PM

If you have a view of a sewage farm, would you get a "Y" or "N"?

TheRazorsEdge

5 Jul 2012, 03:10 PM

Sewage is grown on farms?