|
Australians vanish in census mystery; Where are all the people? Shadow?
|
|
Topic Started: 21 Jun 2012, 06:48 AM (1,215 Views)
|
|
hoofarted
|
21 Jun 2012, 06:48 AM
Post #1
|
- Posts:
- 1,122
- Group:
- Platinum Member
- Member
- #50
- Joined:
- 07/11/2010
|
Australians vanish in census mystery
- Quote:
-
AUSTRALIA lost almost 300,000 people on the way to last year's census. The census count suggests that Australia's population growth since 2006 was much smaller than previously estimated, especially in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. In its first release of census-based data, the Bureau of Statistics has slashed its estimate of the population in mid-2011 from 22.6 million people to 22.3 million. The cut of 294,400 is equivalent to wiping away roughly a year's population growth. Based on the census findings, the bureau estimates that at June 30 last year, Queensland had 106,000 fewer residents than earlier reported. NSW lost 91,000 people, Victoria 87,000, and South Australia 18,000.  By contrast, the census found slightly more people than expected living in WA, Tasmania and the territories. Despite the downgrade, Victoria still added more people than any other state between 2006 and 2011, growing by 408,000 or 8 per cent. NSW added 395,400 people, growing just 5.8 per cent. The bureau will spend the next year working out what was wrong with its earlier estimates. In an explanation yesterday, it gave several possible reasons, including errors in the 2006 census figures, or in the records of births and deaths, or in estimating the real size of net overseas migration. Yesterday's figures are only preliminary, with final post-census results to be released in a year's time. The bureau next month will publish revised estimates of city and regional populations, which are likely to slash population estimates for the main cities, other than Perth. Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/australians-vanish-in-census-mystery-20120620-20oh5.html
|
|
|
| |
|
hoofarted
|
21 Jun 2012, 06:51 AM
Post #2
|
- Posts:
- 1,122
- Group:
- Platinum Member
- Member
- #50
- Joined:
- 07/11/2010
|
Shadow? Could it be that you have fallen for all the bullshit about population growth? You have been the most staunch promoter of population growth as a key property price fundamental.... what does this mean for you when you look at what you have said over the last few years? Was it all lies? Was it all BS to keep you buying it?
|
|
|
| |
|
Enrico Palazzo
|
21 Jun 2012, 07:33 AM
Post #3
|
- Posts:
- 198
- Group:
- Gold Member
- Member
- #526
- Joined:
- 18/04/2011
|
Makes u wonder how good their inflation and GDP estimates are, because they certainly don't jive with what is happening out there on main street???????
|
|
|
| |
|
SMAC
|
21 Jun 2012, 07:39 AM
Post #4
|
- Posts:
- 122
- Group:
- Gold Member
- Member
- #1,246
- Joined:
- 11/10/2011
|
Maybe a lot of the "newer Australians" simply didn't fill out the census forms.
|
|
|
| |
|
NotFooled
|
21 Jun 2012, 07:46 AM
Post #5
|
The Bear Whisperer
- Posts:
- 3,184
- Group:
- Diamond Member
- Member
- #931
- Joined:
- 01/08/2011
- Blog
- Please insert the title of your blog
|
- SMAC
- 21 Jun 2012, 07:39 AM
Maybe a lot of the "newer Australians" simply didn't fill out the census forms.
Defiantly there is paranoia. The hidden (off record) population number is hard to judge but it is growing.
|
|
|
| |
|
Jacks money
|
21 Jun 2012, 07:59 AM
Post #6
|
- Posts:
- 400
- Group:
- Gold Member
- Member
- #249
- Joined:
- 17/01/2011
|
my understanding is that the consensus was based on where you were at mid night on a particular day .... all those missing where travelling through portholes and teleporting etc and couldn't work out which location to fill the forms in ...
The treasury tax estimates will need to be adjusted down ??
the govt hand outs will need to be adj down ??
why is there 300,000 more cars on my way to work lately ??
|
|
It’s not getting any smarter out there. You have to come to terms with stupidity, and make it work for you - Frank Zappa
|
| |
|
Shadow
|
21 Jun 2012, 08:05 AM
Post #7
|
Evil Zealot Specufestor
- Posts:
- 6,009
- Group:
- Diamond Member
- Member
- #22
- Joined:
- 02/11/2010
|
- hoofarted
- 21 Jun 2012, 06:51 AM
Shadow? Could it be that you have fallen for all the bullshit about population growth? You have been the most staunch promoter of population growth as a key property price fundamental.... what does this mean for you when you look at what you have said over the last few years? Was it all lies? Was it all BS to keep you buying it?
I'd say everybody in Australia fell for the 'bullshit' about population growth, if by 'bullshit' you mean the original ABS data that showed population growth peaking at 2.2% in 2008. The new series shows the peak growth rate was only 1.9%. I wrote about this yesterday... here.
The fact that Australian house prices grew so strongly with population growth only reaching a maximum of 1.9% is excellent news if you're a property bull. It effectively lowers the threshold at which population growth places upwards pressure on house prices. It shows that we don't need population growth over 2.0% to have a positive impact on house prices... growth in the mid-high 1.x% is plenty.
The ABS population data series has been completely revised from 2011 (the date of the most recent census) back to 2006 (the date of the previous census).
The charts below compare the original and new population growth rate data series.
The important thing to note is the trend. The trend is the same regardless of which data series you look at. Australia's population growth rate bottomed in the March quarter last year, and has increased every quarter since then. If this continues at the same rate for another few quarters, then the growth rate will soon be right back up at all-time peak levels of 1.9%.
I note that Macrobusiness has already posted two blogs on these population growth rate figures, and so far failed to mention the fact that the series has undergone such a remarkable revision. I don't think they noticed. Leith van Onselen begins his latest blog with...
'Following the release yesterday by the ABS of the Australian Demographic Statistics for the December quarter of 2011, I decided to crunch the numbers to determine how Australia’s population and migration numbers are tracking.'
Yet nowhere in the blog (or the previous one) does he mention anything about the huge revisions. Although, I'm sure they'll correct that omission now that I've pointed it out, because it seems they do read this forum avidly based on what I've observed from their twitter and blog comments!
Edited by Shadow, 21 Jun 2012, 08:10 AM. |
Shadow's Blog - The Australian Housing Market
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All confirmed property bubbles had one thing in common... a particular house price/income ratio pattern.
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans are regulated by the NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is the second highest taxed sector of the Australian Economy. Renters don't pay their fair share of tax, and are subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
Parse: A rep's spare spear pares pears, reaps as per AREPS.
|
| |
|
zaph
|
21 Jun 2012, 08:05 AM
Post #8
|
- Posts:
- 2,293
- Group:
- Platinum Member
- Member
- #160
- Joined:
- 05/12/2010
|
does this news solve the housing shortage problem?
|
|
|
| |
|
hoofarted
|
21 Jun 2012, 08:33 AM
Post #9
|
- Posts:
- 1,122
- Group:
- Platinum Member
- Member
- #50
- Joined:
- 07/11/2010
|
- Quote:
-
The fact that Australian house prices grew so strongly with population growth only reaching a maximum of 1.9% is excellent news if you're a property bull.
You can have your cake and eat it too, can you? What does this revised number do to the calculations of under-building that has apparently been happening? Does it not make you wonder how many other "statistics" have been wrong? Long term statistics that people accept and use to make decisions with?
I wish I could have you ever optimistic view of life and your investments but then again, I do not work in an industry that exists when people buy ever price increasing houses.
- Quote:
-
I'd say everybody in Australia fell for the 'bullshit' about population growth, ...
Sorry but I did not.
|
|
|
| |
|
hoofarted
|
21 Jun 2012, 08:38 AM
Post #10
|
- Posts:
- 1,122
- Group:
- Platinum Member
- Member
- #50
- Joined:
- 07/11/2010
|
- Quote:
-
The ABS population data series has been completely revised from 2011...
While we are on this, you have often compared Australian population growth to other countries such as the UK and the USA and stated that Australia is different because this is one factor that is greater than other countries. How does this revised lie / statistical anomaly compare now? I would suggest that population growth is now more or less in line with those other countries and we are not so different after all...
|
|
|
| |
|
Jacks money
|
21 Jun 2012, 08:40 AM
Post #11
|
- Posts:
- 400
- Group:
- Gold Member
- Member
- #249
- Joined:
- 17/01/2011
|
- hoofarted
- 21 Jun 2012, 08:38 AM
- Quote:
-
The ABS population data series has been completely revised from 2011...
While we are on this, you have often compared Australian population growth to other countries such as the UK and the USA and stated that Australia is different because this is one factor that is greater than other countries. How does this revised lie / statistical anomaly compare now? I would suggest that population growth is now more or less in line with those other countries and we are not so different after all...
stop being a non believer !!!
get over it .... its only going up !!!!
|
|
It’s not getting any smarter out there. You have to come to terms with stupidity, and make it work for you - Frank Zappa
|
| |
|
Mr Griffin
|
21 Jun 2012, 08:47 AM
Post #12
|
- Posts:
- 218
- Group:
- Gold Member
- Member
- #1,283
- Joined:
- 18/10/2011
|
- Enrico Palazzo
- 21 Jun 2012, 07:33 AM
Makes u wonder how good their inflation and GDP estimates are, because they certainly don't jive with what is happening out there on main street???????
My electricity tarrifs are going up 11.5% from 1 July.
CPI 1.6% my ass.
|
|
|
| |
|
Shadow
|
21 Jun 2012, 09:04 AM
Post #13
|
Evil Zealot Specufestor
- Posts:
- 6,009
- Group:
- Diamond Member
- Member
- #22
- Joined:
- 02/11/2010
|
- hoofarted
- 21 Jun 2012, 08:33 AM
Sorry but I did not.
Are you saying you knew the population wasn't growing as strongly as the data suggested? How did you know this? What did you think the growth rates were? For example, in 2008 when the ABS data showed 2.2%, was your own estimate closer to the new revised ABS figures, and how did you derive your own (more accurate) figures at that time
Edited by Shadow, 21 Jun 2012, 09:05 AM. |
Shadow's Blog - The Australian Housing Market
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All confirmed property bubbles had one thing in common... a particular house price/income ratio pattern.
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans are regulated by the NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is the second highest taxed sector of the Australian Economy. Renters don't pay their fair share of tax, and are subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
Parse: A rep's spare spear pares pears, reaps as per AREPS.
|
| |
|
Shadow
|
21 Jun 2012, 09:08 AM
Post #14
|
Evil Zealot Specufestor
- Posts:
- 6,009
- Group:
- Diamond Member
- Member
- #22
- Joined:
- 02/11/2010
|
- hoofarted
- 21 Jun 2012, 08:38 AM
While we are on this, you have often compared Australian population growth to other countries such as the UK and the USA and stated that Australia is different because this is one factor that is greater than other countries. How does this revised lie / statistical anomaly compare now? I would suggest that population growth is now more or less in line with those other countries and we are not so different after all...
It still leaves Australia much higher than those other countries.
When Australia was thought to be at 2.2% (now known to be only 1.9%) the USA was at 1.1%, UK at 0.6%, and Japan was negative.
|
Shadow's Blog - The Australian Housing Market
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All confirmed property bubbles had one thing in common... a particular house price/income ratio pattern.
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans are regulated by the NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is the second highest taxed sector of the Australian Economy. Renters don't pay their fair share of tax, and are subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
Parse: A rep's spare spear pares pears, reaps as per AREPS.
|
| |
|
hoofarted
|
21 Jun 2012, 09:11 AM
Post #15
|
- Posts:
- 1,122
- Group:
- Platinum Member
- Member
- #50
- Joined:
- 07/11/2010
|
- Shadow
- 21 Jun 2012, 09:04 AM
Are you saying you knew the population wasn't growing as strongly as the data suggested? How did you know this? What did you think the growth rates were? For example, in 2008 when the ABS data showed 2.2%, was your own estimate closer to the new revised ABS figures, and how did you derive your own (more accurate) figures at that time
I have always questioned the accuracy of the population growth statistics. Having been a recent immigrant these things mattered but those numbers were way off.
|
|
|
| |
| 1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
|
2:13 PM May 22
