Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
US and China 'adjusting'; US looses all gains from 2012, china stimulates internal consumption.
Topic Started: 2 Jun 2012, 12:27 PM (812 Views)
WestAussie
Default APF Avatar

Food for thought -

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/wall-st-dives-on-weak-jobs-data/story-e6frg91o-1226381184902

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/china-pmi-falls-sharply-in-may-missing-economists-forecasts/story-e6frg926-1226379376697

Not even going to link euro crisis everyone knows they are fked for at least 2 years.

US lost all 2012 gains in 1 day in a massive sell off.
"We're seeing the markets pricing in a synchronised global slowdown," - US

"fresh subsidies for electrical goods, cars and furniture." - China

So... US headed into recession

And China is going to boost Australia in buying our Aussie made led tv's... Cars that cost 4x their locally made great walls and cherry cars and our fine ikea, Swedish made furniture.

I'm sure bulls can read is it just that they choose not to?
Edited by WestAussie, 2 Jun 2012, 12:29 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


The really worrying thing about this is that the US haven't started their fiscal cut backs yet. So if they are stalling now, wait till the later part of this year when they really crash and burn. That on top of China and Europe is not looking pretty. Entering into 2013 - we could be looking at a worldwide recession. How will this affect Australia? You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that this is different to 2009.

You can't push a piece of string, and no matter what the govt throw at housing, if anything, prices will drop. Plus I would be surprised to see a lot of offshore buyers unloading in the evry near future. Why hold an insurance policy when the house has burnt down? Prices will drop hard. I don't see 2012/2013 as a year to be in oz property. 2014 on the other hand, may be a very good year to buy.
Edited by newjez, 2 Jun 2012, 04:34 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Black Panther
Default APF Avatar


newjez
2 Jun 2012, 04:30 PM
The really worrying thing about this is that the US haven't started their fiscal cut backs yet. So if they are stalling now, wait till the later part of this year when they really crash and burn. That on top of China and Europe is not looking pretty. Entering into 2013 - we could be looking at a worldwide recession. How will this affect Australia? You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that this is different to 2009.

You can't push a piece of string, and no matter what the govt throw at housing, if anything, prices will drop. Plus I would be surprised to see a lot of offshore buyers unloading in the evry near future. Why hold an insurance policy when the house has burnt down? Prices will drop hard. I don't see 2012/2013 as a year to be in oz property. 2014 on the other hand, may be a very good year to buy.
Well even if that is the case, Aus will still be one of the better places to be.

Maybe its time to migrate back to Aus.

If you wear a pink Mankini at the airport, and hold up a sign saying "Pick Me Up Black Panther", I'll drive you to your new residence from the Airport.

I'll even take the top down for the ride. :to:

And play my favorite tune



:tu:
Edited by Black Panther, 2 Jun 2012, 04:42 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


Maybe in 2014 my friend - but I think it will be you wearing the mankini! Wear whatever colour you like - but I think black would suit you best.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
nipa hut
Default APF Avatar


newjez
2 Jun 2012, 04:30 PM
The really worrying thing about this is that the US haven't started their fiscal cut backs yet. So if they are stalling now, wait till the later part of this year when they really crash and burn. That on top of China and Europe is not looking pretty. Entering into 2013 - we could be looking at a worldwide recession. How will this affect Australia? You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that this is different to 2009.

You can't push a piece of string, and no matter what the govt throw at housing, if anything, prices will drop. Plus I would be surprised to see a lot of offshore buyers unloading in the evry near future. Why hold an insurance policy when the house has burnt down? Prices will drop hard. I don't see 2012/2013 as a year to be in oz property. 2014 on the other hand, may be a very good year to buy.
I'm not normally inclined to be Pollyanna, especially about the Oz economy and RE market, but this particular alignment of dark clouds is likely to be not-that-painful for Australia for awhile, at least compared to what seems to be in store for North America and Europe.

- We (i.e. our banks, insurers, and super funds) should have little direct financial exposure left to the euro crisis by now.
- In "risk off" mode, the AUD ought to fall faster than the USD for awhile, even with much further RBA cutting. And in extremis, the RBA has considerably further room to cut rates than the US Treasury, which will ensure far larger downside than upside for the AUD/USD ratio.
- Meanwhile, stimulus in China will prop up prices for seaborne iron and coal, at least in relation to other commodities. Existing mine operations will likely still face falling prices, but also falling production costs (in AUD) and transport costs (in a recessionary market for bulk transport). Meanwhile, much of the inflationary pressure from the queue of pending mining/gas projects will get deferred or cancelled.
- A falling AUD would provide some degree of relief (compared to recent conditions) for retailers and domestically-oriented manufacturers.

Mind you, while this might give Australia a "good global recession" (if that's what comes to pass), it will only postpone the day of reckoning for many businesses. I'd expect the eventual global recovery to send the AUD zooming again.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Black Panther
Default APF Avatar


Which in turn will see Aus interest rates continue to fall.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
miw
Member Avatar


nipa hut
2 Jun 2012, 05:39 PM

- Meanwhile, stimulus in China will prop up prices for seaborne iron and coal, at least in relation to other commodities. Existing mine operations will likely still face falling prices, but also falling production costs (in AUD) and transport costs (in a recessionary market for bulk transport). Meanwhile, much of the inflationary pressure from the queue of pending mining/gas projects will get deferred or cancelled.

Mind you, while this might give Australia a "good global recession" (if that's what comes to pass), it will only postpone the day of reckoning for many businesses. I'd expect the eventual global recovery to send the AUD zooming again.
Coal is an interesting one. In the past, China has imported very little coal because they have huge reserves of their own, and not much of what they import has come from Australia.

In the 4 months to April they imported 86.9M tonnes of coal and lignite, up 69% on the same period last year. Annual consumption is about 4B tonnes. This may or may not be significant. In the past, coal imports have happened occasionally because of logistical issues. But it could also mean that coal production in China has maxed out and growth in demand will need to be covered partly or entirely through imports.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy