Yes, and it's good news. If this is the extent of the property crash, I'll be quite happy.
You are very happy because our deleveraging matches that of Japan and USA although this only means that house prices will be falling for years and decades?
Quote:
Someone here (I think it was GenX) posted recently the level to which deleveraging had occurred in Australia over the past couple of years, and it was substantial. Throw in the current employment numbers and falling interest rates and it's hard to see anything other than a steady, orderly softening over several years until we have the next big step up.
our debt fell only 5% (red line) - our debt started fall from higher levels than USA (blue line) so it will likely go down more than USA debt.
you will likely lose more money than you invested in your speculative property portfolio and you still see this as a good news and you are quite happy?
You are very happy because our deleveraging matches that of Japan and USA although this only means that house prices will be falling for years and decades?
our debt fell only 5% (red line) - our debt started fall from higher levels than USA (blue line) so it will likely go down more than USA debt.
you will likely lose more money than you invested in your speculative property portfolio and you still see this as a good news and you are quite happy?
Funny thing about that graph. The left hand scale is Australian private debt to GDP and it peaks at just over 155% of GDP. The right-hand scale is the USA private debt to GDP ratio and it peaks at just over 300% of GDP.
Obvously you are too good to shoot yourself in the foot and only go for headshots.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
You owe me a new keyboard miw I knew I shouldn't be drinking when I read this forum!
Very naughty of me. The reality is that that graph is so dishonest in the way it is put together it would fool anyone on a first glance. It's only because I had recently looked up those exact numbers that I made a double take and checked it.
It's a shame Steve Keene feels he has to resort to such shenanigans. In the end it detracts from his work, much of what I can understand of which (he puts partial differential equations in his blog!!??$%*) seems to makes sense. In particular, his thesis that once debt growth becomes a substantial portion of demand growth, even stabilisation of debt let alone delevaraging can cause collapse in demand.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Very naughty of me. The reality is that that graph is so dishonest in the way it is put together it would fool anyone on a first glance. It's only because I had recently looked up those exact numbers that I made a double take and checked it.
It's a shame Steve Keene feels he has to resort to such shenanigans. In the end it detracts from his work, much of what I can understand of which (he puts partial differential equations in his blog!!??$%*) seems to makes sense. In particular, his thesis that once debt growth becomes a substantial portion of demand growth, even stabilisation of debt let alone delevaraging can cause collapse in demand.
It's quite valid to use a graph like this to demonstrate a particular point or trend. Quite often when comparing anything with the USA you need to scale size and even time to demonstrate trends. But you have to be very careful not to then take the graph out of context and try and prove something else. You also need a basic understanding of what the graph is.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Very naughty of me. The reality is that that graph is so dishonest in the way it is put together it would fool anyone on a first glance. It's only because I had recently looked up those exact numbers that I made a double take and checked it.
It's a shame Steve Keene feels he has to resort to such shenanigans. In the end it detracts from his work, much of what I can understand of which (he puts partial differential equations in his blog!!??$%*) seems to makes sense. In particular, his thesis that once debt growth becomes a substantial portion of demand growth, even stabilisation of debt let alone delevaraging can cause collapse in demand.
It's quite valid to use a graph like this to demonstrate a particular point or trend. Quite often when comparing anything with the USA you need to scale size and even time to demonstrate trends. But you have to be very careful not to then take the graph out of context and try and prove something else. You also need a basic understanding of what the graph is.
I don't think it is newjez. I think that Keen is risking way too much of his hitherto good reputation on dodgy graphs that move time scales and every other possible metric in an attempt to prove that he is right. What that means is that if he is wrong he risks further damage to his reputation, whilst if he is right then he will still only be proven right, and not more right because of these dodgy graphs.
He would be better off knowingly commenting than relying on these methods. It just makes him look desperate.
Back in 2008 he advised the government and the RBA to stimulate and slash rates, which they did, and the economy righted itself because of that stimulous and because China also stimulated - he should have claimed victory for giving them good advice but instead he insisted that house prices still had to fall and that because the government stimulated the economy, the playing field wasn't level - although that was his advice.
Steve really needs a media adviser, and he needs to apply some risk management techniques to his reputation. He got it all right in 2008 but still ended up wrong because he underestimated the value of his own advice - go figure.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
It's quite valid to use a graph like this to demonstrate a particular point or trend. Quite often when comparing anything with the USA you need to scale size and even time to demonstrate trends. But you have to be very careful not to then take the graph out of context and try and prove something else. You also need a basic understanding of what the graph is.
The problem with the graph is that it leads others to false conclusions and Steve Keen knows it. I've no doubt that he actually intended to create a false reading of the chart. raveswei concluded from the graph the following:
Quote:
our debt started fall from higher levels than USA (blue line)
That statement, that our debt was higher than USA debt, is totally false but it is the conclusion that Keen was happy to foster amongst his doom and gloom worshippers.
Steve Keen is well aware that it is easy to fool his own worshippers with deceptive chart scales. raveswei has swallowed Keen's dirty trick hook line and sinker. The problem for raveswei is that he has revealed himself as gullible.
Steve Keen is also aware that whenever his deception is exposed, as above, he can count on his supporters like newjez(not newjez) to present an apologetic rationalisation and defence of his misleading offerings.
So Syd, Do you think the previous cuts have had an effect yet ?
Syd will give you his thoughts, but here's mine. The last cash rate cutting period ran from September 2008 to April 2009.
It wasn't until August 2009, ie 11 months after the cash rate began to be cut, that the ABS reported any house price rises at all. Then - boom.
There's a delay between the cash rate cuts and mortgage rate cuts. There's then a period during which people have to get their arse into gear and find and negotiate a purchase, and then perhaps change their minds and find another. There's then a period until settlement. There's then a period before the ABS and others get that data, process it and publish it.
There's also the issue of momentum. Just like late 2008 and early 2009, people are not actually seeing price rises and are not therefore driven by a belief that they might be missing out even though rates are falling. Back in 2009 small rises began to be reported in August. People saw that and decided to join the party which then turned into a boom.
Rises have already begun in Perth. Rises usually lead to rises until they overshoot. Rises have not begun in most other places. We need to wait and see. If even small rises occur they may lead to others joining the game and lead to further rises.
The problem with the graph is that it leads others to false conclusions and Steve Keen knows it. I've no doubt that he actually intended to create a false reading of the chart. raveswei concluded from the graph the following:
That statement, that our debt was higher than USA debt, is totally false but it is the conclusion that Keen was happy to foster amongst his doom and gloom worshippers.
Steve Keen is well aware that it is easy to fool his own worshippers with deceptive chart scales. raveswei has swallowed Keen's dirty trick hook line and sinker. The problem for raveswei is that he has revealed himself as gullible.
Steve Keen is also aware that whenever his deception is exposed, as above, he can count on his supporters like newjez to present an apologetic rationalisation and defence of his misleading offerings.
If you can find an example of a time I've ever supported Steven Keen - please post a link. I'd be interested to read it.
I was speaking generally. This type ofmoving axis graph is very common. It is what it is - a demonstration of trend, and not an actual comparison.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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