atleast i'm willing to make a prediction instead of endless whining like you ted. your not too bright claiming it's a sign i owe too much money - i've stated numerous times that i own one house which only costs a small fraction of my income to pay off.
If anything a crash would suit me as it would allow me to buy a bigger and better house. even your mythical 40% crash wouldn't put my equity in the negative.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
price falls over the entire metro area are due to the super high end north western burbs which had median house prices in the millions. places like my suburb which are affordable are actually on the rise. there is money to be made in any market which most bears fail to understand. I still think there will be a 10% rise by the end of next year though. the sheer number of people moving here will put so much pressure on housing it almost ensures it.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Lots of talk on streets about a Perth boom, that alone will tempt civilians to purchase!
Things are really starting to heat up in perth, everyone is talking about house price rises, the rental crisis. Go to some home opens, and see the competition now for houses under $600,000. Bidding wars have started up again, sales are up 40-50% so far this year. Housing stock levels are declining quickly over the last month, rents are up 17% this year at least and that was to april.
The interest rate cuts which are meant to prop up the eastern states is like throwing petrol onto a fire over here. We dont need the cuts and it is going to fuel a real estate boom in Perth. If the RBA drops rates again in June or July, its going to go crazy here.
Your a bit behind the times son. Perth had 2.5% growth last quater. The 1st quater in perth we had sales levels around 10-15% better than the same peroid 12 months ago. For April and May so far sales have averaged 40-50% greater than the same peroid 12 months ago.
The increase in sales has occurred at the same time the vacancy rate has declined to 1.6% and rental price growth increased to 17% over 12 months up to April. Im sure may's figures will be even higher.
2nd Quater price growth is likely to be in the 3.5-4% range, increasing from the 2.5% for the 1st quater which is an annualised 10% price growth. I said last month prices had increased by 6% as of april using landgate figures, that is now being backed up by multiple datasets.
The Perth market now is strong, just get out and go have alook around display centres, home opens, rental home opens. It is really strong here. You will see the figures in comming months. These figures are already good.
price falls over the entire metro area are due to the super high end north western burbs which had median house prices in the millions. places like my suburb which are affordable are actually on the rise. there is money to be made in any market which most bears fail to understand. I still think there will be a 10% rise by the end of next year though. the sheer number of people moving here will put so much pressure on housing it almost ensures it.
Thanks for your emotional and subjective comments.
Let's just take a breath and objectively review some industry stats. Say look at employment growth (people earning income and potentially buying property), unemployment growth (people not earning enought income to potentially buy property), wages growth and population growth.
1. Employment by Industry indicate e.g. 8.4% of the population is employed in the Mining industry and 7.3% in the Manufacturing industry etc. The biggest increase in employment was in the Healthcare and Social Assistance industry 17,800 persons over 1 year (Gov funded industry and low to middle income earners) and followed by the Mining industry 16,900 persons over 1 year (private funded industry and middle to high income earners). The Construction Industry, Agriculture, Fishing, Admin and Support Service Industries are declining in employment growth. Yep the stats indicate a 2 speed economy.
Interpretation: Low to middle income earners may not necessarily run out and buy a property and get into high debt? Middle to high income earners in the Mining industry may live in mining towns, rural towns or be fly in and fly out to other states. However the may be stay at home young persons and building a deposit for a first home and waiting to see what the market does? After all the Eurozone looks a bit grim at the moment, so a rational person may wait and see what effect Europe may have on finance markets and on the Perth market. Perth property prices may drop further so why not buy in later at lower prices? Why buy if prices are going to drop?
2. Unemployment stats indicate the unemployment rate in WA fell by 0.1% from Jan 2012 to Mar 2012. Interesting to note the unemployment rate in NSW fell by 0.2% in the same period.
Interpretation: The unemployment rate hasn't dropped significantly.
3. Wages growth stats are predominantly reflective of Resource industry and Mining industry wage growth (skews the stats). Having friends who work in various professional roles in WA I can tell you that wage growth is low. So 8.4% of the population are enjoying wage growth. So it is only 8.4% of the population who may be increasing property demand.
Interpretation: A small percentage of the population in the WA 2 speed economy may be contributing to increased demand for housing. However purchasing behaviour will be influenced by multiple factors e.g. their existing debt service ratios, changes to share market portfolio wealth and attitude to risk in the Australian property market etc etc. So they may not necessarily rush out and buy a property. Or if they do buy property they may force low sale prices as overall buying demand is not high. So property prices remain flat.
4. Population Growth in WA Take into account births, deaths and migration. Obviously births represent children who will grow up, stay at home and one day buy a house e.g. at age 25-35 years based on current trends. Deaths will reduce population and migration figures account for mining industry personnel and overseas students etc. Overseas student numbers are declining and the students come and go. They do not necessarily buy Australian property.
Interpretation: Population growth stats do not indicate an avalanche of new employed middle to high income persons who will be running out and buying property.
Oh by the way never let the facts get in the way of a good story!
price falls over the entire metro area are due to the super high end north western burbs which had median house prices in the millions. places like my suburb which are affordable are actually on the rise. there is money to be made in any market which most bears fail to understand. I still think there will be a 10% rise by the end of next year though. the sheer number of people moving here will put so much pressure on housing it almost ensures it.
The big problem I have with this analysis is that fall in the price of the high-end segment affects the median price for Perth ---- not at all. It might affect the median price of the above-median suburbs, but not the overall median price. That's why the property industry always talks about median rather than mean prices - so the volatility at the high end won't scare the horses at the low end.
To the point that even the bears have been conned into thinking that the median price is the better indicator of the market. Across a capital city or a state or a country price tells you what is happening in the middle quartile of the market, and nothing else. It's useful for small, relatively homogeneous populations where you don't have a statistically significant sample - like a single suburb for a single month.
What I would like to see for something as large as a capital city is an exponential moving average of house prices with an effective length of at least 6 months, corrected for urban sprawl.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Thanks for your emotional and subjective comments.
Let's just take a breath and objectively review some industry stats. Say look at employment growth (people earning income and potentially buying property), unemployment growth (people not earning enought income to potentially buy property), wages growth and population growth.
1. Employment by Industry indicate e.g. 8.4% of the population is employed in the Mining industry and 7.3% in the Manufacturing industry etc. The biggest increase in employment was in the Healthcare and Social Assistance industry 17,800 persons over 1 year (Gov funded industry and low to middle income earners) and followed by the Mining industry 16,900 persons over 1 year (private funded industry and middle to high income earners). The Construction Industry, Agriculture, Fishing, Admin and Support Service Industries are declining in employment growth. Yep the stats indicate a 2 speed economy.
Interpretation: Low to middle income earners may not necessarily run out and buy a property and get into high debt? Middle to high income earners in the Mining industry may live in mining towns, rural towns or be fly in and fly out to other states. However the may be stay at home young persons and building a deposit for a first home and waiting to see what the market does? After all the Eurozone looks a bit grim at the moment, so a rational person may wait and see what effect Europe may have on finance markets and on the Perth market. Perth property prices may drop further so why not buy in later at lower prices? Why buy if prices are going to drop?
2. Unemployment stats indicate the unemployment rate in WA fell by 0.1% from Jan 2012 to Mar 2012. Interesting to note the unemployment rate in NSW fell by 0.2% in the same period.
Interpretation: The unemployment rate hasn't dropped significantly.
3. Wages growth stats are predominantly reflective of Resource industry and Mining industry wage growth (skews the stats). Having friends who work in various professional roles in WA I can tell you that wage growth is low. So 8.4% of the population are enjoying wage growth. So it is only 8.4% of the population who may be increasing property demand.
Interpretation: A small percentage of the population in the WA 2 speed economy may be contributing to increased demand for housing. However purchasing behaviour will be influenced by multiple factors e.g. their existing debt service ratios, changes to share market portfolio wealth and attitude to risk in the Australian property market etc etc. So they may not necessarily rush out and buy a property. Or if they do buy property they may force low sale prices as overall buying demand is not high. So property prices remain flat.
4. Population Growth in WA Take into account births, deaths and migration. Obviously births represent children who will grow up, stay at home and one day buy a house e.g. at age 25-35 years based on current trends. Deaths will reduce population and migration figures account for mining industry personnel and overseas students etc. Overseas student numbers are declining and the students come and go. They do not necessarily buy Australian property.
Interpretation: Population growth stats do not indicate an avalanche of new employed middle to high income persons who will be running out and buying property.
Oh by the way never let the facts get in the way of a good story!
Open your eyes sunshine!
which part was emotional exactly? as for being subjective, that was the whole point of calling a 10% rise. I don't have a crystal ball so any prediction is purely subjective.
I like the way you claim to be objective and place a whole paragraph called "Interpretation:" under every one of the stats you used. hate to break this to you genius but if your applying your own interpretation to things it's subjective, not objective.
You fail to understand that money from the mining industry is spent in other sectors than mining.
The crowning glory of your post though is that the stats you used do more to back up my prediction - increasing population, wages growth and dropping unemployment. Do tell which part of this story i somehow got wrong?!
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Lots of talk on streets about a Perth boom, that alone will tempt civilians to purchase!
Things are really starting to heat up in perth, everyone is talking about house price rises, the rental crisis. Go to some home opens, and see the competition now for houses under $600,000. Bidding wars have started up again, sales are up 40-50% so far this year. Housing stock levels are declining quickly over the last month, rents are up 17% this year at least and that was to april.
The interest rate cuts which are meant to prop up the eastern states is like throwing petrol onto a fire over here. We dont need the cuts and it is going to fuel a real estate boom in Perth. If the RBA drops rates again in June or July, its going to go crazy here.
Your a bit behind the times son. Perth had 2.5% growth last quater. The 1st quater in perth we had sales levels around 10-15% better than the same peroid 12 months ago. For April and May so far sales have averaged 40-50% greater than the same peroid 12 months ago.
The increase in sales has occurred at the same time the vacancy rate has declined to 1.6% and rental price growth increased to 17% over 12 months up to April. Im sure may's figures will be even higher.
2nd Quater price growth is likely to be in the 3.5-4% range, increasing from the 2.5% for the 1st quater which is an annualised 10% price growth. I said last month prices had increased by 6% as of april using landgate figures, that is now being backed up by multiple datasets.
The Perth market now is strong, just get out and go have alook around display centres, home opens, rental home opens. It is really strong here. You will see the figures in comming months. These figures are already good.
Lots of talk on streets about a Perth boom, that alone will tempt civilians to purchase!
Things are really starting to heat up in perth, everyone is talking about house price rises, the rental crisis. Go to some home opens, and see the competition now for houses under $600,000. Bidding wars have started up again, sales are up 40-50% so far this year. Housing stock levels are declining quickly over the last month, rents are up 17% this year at least and that was to april.
The interest rate cuts which are meant to prop up the eastern states is like throwing petrol onto a fire over here. We dont need the cuts and it is going to fuel a real estate boom in Perth. If the RBA drops rates again in June or July, its going to go crazy here.
Your a bit behind the times son. Perth had 2.5% growth last quater. The 1st quater in perth we had sales levels around 10-15% better than the same peroid 12 months ago. For April and May so far sales have averaged 40-50% greater than the same peroid 12 months ago.
The increase in sales has occurred at the same time the vacancy rate has declined to 1.6% and rental price growth increased to 17% over 12 months up to April. Im sure may's figures will be even higher.
2nd Quater price growth is likely to be in the 3.5-4% range, increasing from the 2.5% for the 1st quater which is an annualised 10% price growth. I said last month prices had increased by 6% as of april using landgate figures, that is now being backed up by multiple datasets.
The Perth market now is strong, just get out and go have alook around display centres, home opens, rental home opens. It is really strong here. You will see the figures in comming months. These figures are already good.
Landgate which is the Govt agency which counts every sales of property in the state would disgree with you. As they do count every sale, they are the most reliable source of data as it includes all data not just a sample or survey.
This shows a 3.5% gain, HIA shows a 2.5% gain. Langate shows a similar gain.
You dont get 17% increase in rent prices, huge surge in sales of up to 50% and not have price rises. So far this year Perth has 10 suburbs in which rent has increased by more than 100%, doubled. April, May have been very good months for sales, wait for this data to come through.
Perth is already starting to boom, if you have not invested already or bought your own home your about to miss out on solid capital gains lets alone skyrocketing rents.
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