Leith van Onselen arrogantly and falsely claims as "MY HYPOTHESIS"; The theory that downsizing baby boomers will have a negative effect on house prices
Tweet Topic Started: 24 May 2012, 11:17 AM (5,600 Views)
Note that it has been difficult to get owners of strata titled offices/units to agree on anything. I believe you need 90% votes to agree to a change of use or a total sale of the property, although there are moves afoot to change that to 70% but that is still difficult to achieve.
Looming bankruptcy can be a great motivator though.
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Boomers - I'm not entirely convinced that they will sell and move anwhere. What is the benefit for them.
Downsizing and lifestyle. A lot of Boomers still live in the Burbs, they could be looking for a sea change, or maybe an apartment close to a major hospital and other conveniences.
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They can hold some cash, draw the pension, and reverse mortgage an income paid monthly.
Reverse mortgages only work when the price continues to rise. When prices are falling equity falls also.
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Moving to an ocean front unit away from family and friends has lost it's appeal.
If true, I see a lot of coastal ghost towns in the next 20 years.
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But we will have to wait and see what will actually happen.
Indeed, although it behooves one to position for future eventualities, even if ultimately the exact course of events is unknown.
The retirement of the boomers began around 20 years ago. Many professions and individuals have the opportunity to retire pre 65.
Yes, I'm interested in facts rather than your pedantic pettiness about the definition of a theory or a hypothesis.
Thanks there is some very good information here! So there could be a good sample of Baby Boomers who have retired and could participate in research.
Generally a formal academic hypothesis is developed as part of a higher degree unit or PhD. If the student is successful in proceeding with their study the hypothesis may eventually be published in a recognised academic journal. Then the hypothesis is acknowledged formally.
I cannot find any journal article that has published a 'hypothesis' like the statement made by Leith van Onselen. So I disagree with your objection about Leith van Onselen arrogantly and falsely claiming his hypothesis. Unless you can refer the readers of this forum to a published hypothesis. Where are your facts old chap or do you just like to make unsubstantiated claims?
It is important to use English language correctly if you want your audience to respect your opinion. This will demonstrate the integrity of the writer and build credibility with the readers. So if you have no concern about the correct use of English language, that is your choice.
If you choose to mix up your definitions and create confusion for the reader that is your choice...
I would like to respect what you have to write, however I find some of your comments confusing and not well thought out.
I cannot find any journal article that has published a 'hypothesis' like the statement made by Leith van Onselen. So I disagree with your objection about Leith van Onselen arrogantly and falsely claiming his hypothesis. Unless you can refer the readers of this forum to a published hypothesis. Where are your facts old chap or do you just like to make unsubstantiated claims?
You didn't look very hard. The following was published in 1990, that's 22 years before Onselen claimed it was HIS hypothesis. Onselen was probably still in nappies in 1990 ( even though he may not have been a youngster then).
The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market
Author Info
N. Gregory Mankiw David N. Weil
Registered author(s):
N. Gregory Mankiw David N. Weil
Abstract This paper examines the impact of major demographic changes on the housing market in the United States. The entry of the Baby Boom generation into its house-buying years is found to be the major cause of the increase in real housing prices in the l97Os. Since the Baby Bust generation is now entering its house-buying years, housing demand will grow more slowly in the 1990s than in any time in the past forty years. If the historical relation between housing demand and housing prices continues into the future, real housing prices will fall substantially over the next two decades.
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