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Leith van Onselen arrogantly and falsely claims as "MY HYPOTHESIS"; The theory that downsizing baby boomers will have a negative effect on house prices
Topic Started: 24 May 2012, 11:17 AM (5,606 Views)
Elastic
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Just find it in your heart to love him Strindberg.
Put aside your differences and give him a big hug.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Strindberg
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Elastic
24 May 2012, 05:57 PM
Quote:
 
van Onselen never admits his errors!!

He has something in common with Strindberg then.
I always admit my errors, eg:

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8297427&t=9453214

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8291480&t=8694847

If you can point to any errors I have made, and not acknowledged, please do so. I'll be happy to acknowledge my errors.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Enjoy The Ride
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Strindberg- You seriously need a hobby, I rarely read Macro but did today. Seems you are trying to derail the main thrust of the article. Do you have an opinion on the Demographic shift?I think most on this forum know you have an unhealthy obsession with LVO.




Enjoy The Ride!
Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


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rob88
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In a scientific sense a hypothesis does not have to be original. The following would be perfectly acceptable:

My hypothesis is that F = m x a

bla bla bla

I conclude that my experiment proved my hypothesis.

I am not claiming I came up with the idea of the 2nd law of motion before Newton, I am merely stating that it is something that I will be testing. Same same for the guy writing the blog, he was merely stating that idea as his starting point and I'm assuming he then set about to prove it some how. Nothing wrong with the use of the phrase 'my hypothesis'.
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nipa hut
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Strindberg
24 May 2012, 12:25 PM
Of course it is different. The word "my" infers belonging/ownership. It is quite correct to say "my belief" or "my opinion" where the belief or opinion belongs to the sayer. It is quite wrong to say "my hypothesis" when the hypothesis is not owned by the sayer and was previously constructed and published by someone else.

For example, it would obviously be plagiarism or worse to claim that my hypothesis is that force is equal to mass times acceleration. It may be my belief but the hypothesis would not be mine.

The point is that Leith really intended to claim brownie points for the hypothesis which he may genuinely have believed he invented. He has now been educated in to the fact that he came late to the issue and he has no right to claim the hypothesis as his own.
This is arrant nonsense.

Kindly provide *any* authoritative source for the proposition that "my hypothesis" automatically represents a claim of intellectual originality with regard to the concept in discussion. Certainly "my belief" implies no such claim of originality, as essentially identical individual expressions of personal belief, from new and old adherents alike, are often the touchstone of charismatic religions, whose (collective) belief systems have long been established.

It is "my hypothesis" that this is easily your most idiotic MB-bashing thread yet, Strindberg. Unsurprisingly, I find that others have already expressed similar sentiments in this thread. But that does not trouble me, as I was merely affirming belief in your idiocy, rather than claiming exclusive rights to having observed it.

:lol :lol :lol
Edited by nipa hut, 24 May 2012, 08:32 PM.
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nipa hut
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rob88
24 May 2012, 06:49 PM
In a scientific sense a hypothesis does not have to be original. The following would be perfectly acceptable:

My hypothesis is that F = m x a

bla bla bla

I conclude that my experiment proved my hypothesis.

I am not claiming I came up with the idea of the 2nd law of motion before Newton, I am merely stating that it is something that I will be testing. Same same for the guy writing the blog, he was merely stating that idea as his starting point and I'm assuming he then set about to prove it some how. Nothing wrong with the use of the phrase 'my hypothesis'.
Exactly...
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Rastus2
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ajGold
24 May 2012, 12:20 PM
I find it interesting that the majority of other comments on that post highlight the same point I am about to make.

Haven't you simply misinterpreted that sentence? A hypothesis can be drawn from prior hypotheses and subsequent findings (or lack thereof) of others. It doesn't appear to me in that sentence or by linking to previous discussion that he is claiming to have invented it all by himself.

However, take one Mr Christopher Joye who makes, publishes, admits to and self-references grandiose claims of hypothetical invention.

Yet more pollution of the forum with inconsiderate separate posts about MB that could be combined into a single thread.

Basically, CJ and L VO do the same thing... except that L VO probably makes more predictions which he then selectively reminds us of when/if they come true, where as CJ puts forward other peoples thoughts, and then brands them as his own predictions if they come true.

Nice to see you are balanced in your observation of both these guys... except of course, that your complaints of CJ are almost mute. :re:
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Strindberg
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nipa hut
24 May 2012, 08:28 PM
This is arrant nonsense.

Kindly provide *any* authoritative source for the proposition that "my hypothesis" automatically represents a claim of intellectual originality with regard to the concept in discussion. Certainly "my belief" implies no such claim of originality, as essentially identical individual expressions of personal belief, from new and old adherents alike, are often the touchstone of charismatic religions, whose (collective) belief systems have long been established.

It is "my hypothesis" that this is easily your most idiotic MB-bashing thread yet, Strindberg. Unsurprisingly, I find that others have already expressed similar sentiments in this thread. But that does not trouble me, as I was merely affirming belief in your idiocy, rather than claiming exclusive rights to having observed it.

:lol :lol :lol
I'm surprised that you and other apologists for LVO are continuing to use a defence which LVO himself has not used.

LVO in his blog defined "my hypothesis" in the context of boomers downsizing. He writes:
Quote:
 
According to the article, baby boomers transitioning into retirement are increasingly seeking to downsize in order to free-up cash to fund their lifestyles, which is in turn crimping house price growth:

He then makes his hypothesis claim in that context:
Quote:
 
In a nutshell, my hypothesis is that Australia’s baby boomer generation – which comprises roughly one-quarter of the Australian population but owns nearly half of the nation’s housing assets – will gradually become net sellers of Australian housing as they enter retirement, thereby acting to push down home prices in the process.

That claim is made in the context of downsizing. That hypothesis was published by others many years ago.
His claim "my hypothesis" claim was rightfully challenged. LVO's response to that challenge was not to acknowledge that he was just expressing a belief. His response was to insist on the phrase "my hypothesis" and ownership of the hypothesis, and add the qualification that his hypothesis refers to the sale of negatively geared property. He wrote here in response to the challenge:
Quote:
 
You obviously cannot read as I said “my hypothesis”, which relates to the Baby Boomers selling-off negatively geared investment properties ...


So he initially stated his hypothesis in the context of downsizing. He then restated his hypothesis as relating to the sale of negatively geared properties. Those are two entirely different hypotheses. There can be no negative gearing associated with downsizing a family home. LVO is sticking to his claim that the hypothesis belongs to him and relates to negatively geared sales rather than downsizing. This is obfuscatory deceit for which he has extensive form.

Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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audas
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rob88
24 May 2012, 06:49 PM
In a scientific sense a hypothesis does not have to be original. The following would be perfectly acceptable:

My hypothesis is that F = m x a

bla bla bla

I conclude that my experiment proved my hypothesis.

I am not claiming I came up with the idea of the 2nd law of motion before Newton, I am merely stating that it is something that I will be testing. Same same for the guy writing the blog, he was merely stating that idea as his starting point and I'm assuming he then set about to prove it some how. Nothing wrong with the use of the phrase 'my hypothesis'.
NO the point is that if a scientist said "My Hypothesis" is that an infinite amount of energy is required to travel at the speed of light, and therefore nothing can ever travel faster, I call "My Hypothesis" the General Theory of relativity and is represented as E=mc2 then people would be falling all over themselves to point out that this is in fact Einsteins hypothesis and it has been appropriated.

If on the other hand as is being said by all and sundry it was merely said, THE hypothesis of E=MC2 then fine.

There is no doubt that ascribing My Hypothesis to the ideas represented, and the subsequent statements were all designed to present the idea as unique and original to the author of the article - none. And that is genuinely dishonest.

I don't have any gripe with the website or the author, just the inappropriate appropriation and then the lack of acknowledgment that it was not his original idea at all but a well accepted general idea that has been in circulation for a long time, well before he ever brought it up.

Thats all there is too it.
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Strindberg
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rob88
24 May 2012, 06:49 PM
In a scientific sense a hypothesis does not have to be original. The following would be perfectly acceptable:

My hypothesis is that F = m x a
No, it would not be at all acceptable. You would be castigated as a fraud if you made that claim. That hypothesis is Isaac Newton's, not yours.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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