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Leith van Onselen arrogantly and falsely claims as "MY HYPOTHESIS"; The theory that downsizing baby boomers will have a negative effect on house prices
Topic Started: 24 May 2012, 11:17 AM (5,601 Views)
Strindberg
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Leith van Onselen at it again. He now claims a theory that has been around for decades as his own. The theory he is claiming as his own is that downsizing boomers will have a negative effect on house prices. The theory may be true or false but it is certainly false that Leith created the theory as he claims.

Today on Macrobusiness he makes the absolutely false claim here:

Quote:
 
In a nutshell, my hypothesis is that Australia’s baby boomer generation – which comprises roughly one-quarter of the Australian population but owns nearly half of the nation’s housing assets – will gradually become net sellers of Australian housing as they enter retirement, thereby acting to push down home prices in the process.


Monumental arrogance. Fortunately a poster on MB ( a very bearish poster) has called him on his false claim here where he provides full proof of Leith van Onselen's bare faced cheek and misplaced arrogance:

Quote:
 
Aristophrenia
May 24, 2012 at 8:19 am

I find it viscerally repugnant that you are claiming the baby boomer housing price theory as YOUR THEORY with links back to 2010.

This is a general theory which has been long and well discussed for a long, long time – the known implications of which have been talked about for more than a decade.

Its not YOUR theory, its a well known popular theory which absolutely predates your appropriation of it.

If you need any confirmation of this just set your Google search to only return results prior to 2009, or 2003, or 1995 – as i did, with hundreds of results from all over the world detailing this phenomenon.

I find this type of self aggrandizing and shameless appropriation very out of character for this website.

The study of demographics and its impact on social services, welfare, housing, employment and SPECIFICALLY realestate is a well researched field and has been an ongoing concern for countries all over the world.

Its not YOUR theory – its as common as dust mites, has been discussed ad nauseum for decades and is absolutely not new or enlightening – it is a well accepted norm of no greater insight than night follows day.
Edited by Strindberg, 24 May 2012, 11:18 AM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Sherlock
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This comment by PhilH, nails it --

Quote:
 
PhilH May 24, 2012 at 8:48 am

MB commentary is notable for its egotism, self-congratulation and tendency towards confirmation bias.
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Elastic
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Can you give it a rest Strindberg.
If we all wanted to use this forum for our personal vendettas against any public figure we had a gripe with then this forum would become very tiresome.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Dr Watson
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I can't understand what Leith has done wrong here. If he'd said it was "my contention" or "my belief" would that make it OK? What's wrong with him sharing an opinion that has been previously expressed by other commentators?

You guys are obsessed with Macrobusiness. It's amusing to watch! Keep the entertainment coming!

Edited by Dr Watson, 24 May 2012, 12:11 PM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Strindberg
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Dr Watson
24 May 2012, 12:07 PM
I can't understand what Leith has done wrong here. If he'd said it was "my contention" or "my belief" would that make it OK? What's wrong with him sharing an opinion that has been previously espoused by other commentators?

You guys are obsessed with Macrobusiness. It's amusing to watch! Keep the entertainment coming!

Simple agreement with a previously expounded hypothesis does not entitle you claim ownership of that hypothesis with the claim "my hypothesis".
Leith really was trying to claim that it was his hypothesis and he gave links to his own past utterances in an attempt to justify his claim that he invented the hypothesis.

Had he simply claimed it as "my belief" that would have been fine. He could have done that if that was what he meant. He didn't do that because he wished to lay claim to ownership of the hypothesis with "my hypothesis is...".
Edited by Strindberg, 24 May 2012, 12:17 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Dr Watson
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Strindberg
24 May 2012, 12:13 PM
Simple agreement with a previously expounded hypothesis does not entitle you claim ownership of that hypothesis with the claim "my hypothesis".
Leith really was trying to claim that it was his hypothesis and he gave links to his own past utterances in an attempt to justify his claim that he invented the hypothesis.
Rubbish. We often say, "It's my belief that ..." or "It's my opinion that ...". Why is it any different if we say, "It's my hypothesis ..."? He did not claim exclusive ownership. This is a monumental beat-up on your part.
Edited by Dr Watson, 24 May 2012, 12:18 PM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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ajGold
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Sherlock
24 May 2012, 11:35 AM


I find it interesting that the majority of other comments on that post highlight the same point I am about to make.

Haven't you simply misinterpreted that sentence? A hypothesis can be drawn from prior hypotheses and subsequent findings (or lack thereof) of others. It doesn't appear to me in that sentence or by linking to previous discussion that he is claiming to have invented it all by himself.

However, take one Mr Christopher Joye who makes, publishes, admits to and self-references grandiose claims of hypothetical invention.

Yet more pollution of the forum with inconsiderate separate posts about MB that could be combined into a single thread.
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Strindberg
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Dr Watson
24 May 2012, 12:16 PM
Rubbish. We often say, "It's my belief that ..." or "It's my opinion that ...". Why is it any different if we say, "It's my hypothesis ..."? He did not claim exclusive ownership. This is a monumental beat-up on your part.
Of course it is different. The word "my" infers belonging/ownership. It is quite correct to say "my belief" or "my opinion" where the belief or opinion belongs to the sayer. It is quite wrong to say "my hypothesis" when the hypothesis is not owned by the sayer and was previously constructed and published by someone else.

For example, it would obviously be plagiarism or worse to claim that my hypothesis is that force is equal to mass times acceleration. It may be my belief but the hypothesis would not be mine.

The point is that Leith really intended to claim brownie points for the hypothesis which he may genuinely have believed he invented. He has now been educated in to the fact that he came late to the issue and he has no right to claim the hypothesis as his own.
Edited by Strindberg, 24 May 2012, 12:43 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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zaph
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semantics!!
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ajGold
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Strindberg
24 May 2012, 12:25 PM
Of course it is different. The word "my" infers belonging/ownership. It is quite correct to say "my belief" or "my opinion" where the belief or opinion belongs to the sayer. It is quite wrong to say "my hypothesis" when the hypothesis is not owned by the sayer and was previously constructed and published by someone else.

For example, it would obviously be plagiarism or worse to claim that my hypothesis is that force is equal to mass times acceleration. It may be my belief but the hypothesis would not be mine.

The point is that Leith really intended to claim brownie points for the hypothesis which he may genuinely have believed he invented. He has now been educated in to the fact that he came late to the issue.
My hypothesis is that you are a pedantic physicist unable to distinguish the colloquial use of 'hypothesis' by an economics blogger from formal scientific use.
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