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Rise in new home sales, prices point to U.S. housing recovery
Topic Started: 24 May 2012, 11:15 AM (1,209 Views)
TED BULLPIT
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The US is finished , they borrow more money than they ever have, I noticed on the debt clock that mortgage debt is dropping but personal debt is still rising so they are merely using there crediy cards to pay there mortgage and bills.
I heard som clown on the buisiness channel say 'now that the US economy is in full blown recovery' I almost fell off my chair in laughter.
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

TED BULLPIT
25 May 2012, 06:24 AM
The US is finished... I heard som clown on the buisiness channel say 'now that the US economy is in full blown recovery' I almost fell off my chair in laughter.
The US will have the last laugh, Teddy boy.
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davel
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The US will travel better than most places in the volatile period upcoming. Housing will recover because it has been cleaned out pretty thoroughly.

The problem of course is the politics and the general debt position. If the tax cuts expire and the automatic 1.2T cuts kick in after the election, as they will if no political agreement is reached, this is equivalent to about 3-4% of GDP. Not good. The longer term entitlement problem is also still there,

But people seem to underestimate the ability of the US to kick the can. They can do that for another 20-40 years yet. There will be no debt crisis in the US because they have too many options open. Also demographically and economically they are in a better position than anyone else.

Politics is the issue, given the extent of polarisation. But this is not yet critical. They will do enough to keep the markets in check, unlike Europe.
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peter fraser
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Maveri
24 May 2012, 10:59 PM
peter fraser
24 May 2012, 05:35 PM
Some info on US Real Estate from last night.

VIDEO

Peter, you always seem optimistic about US housing :-)

You probably think I always stalk you on US housing lol (i.e. the past discussions on Detroit no-existent housing recovery)

Anyhow...

That was one of the better discussions I've heard out of the overly CNBC optimistic machine of late

However, I think these guys are far more switched on that the CNBC folk, although they are more talking about residential housing than commercial in the US

pimco vs shilling housing bull vs bear debate

My personal view is that the Pimco folk are a bit too optimistic and that the Shilling clan are more grounded in the overall make-up of the US economy

J P Morgan blunder

Either way - there is no full blown US recovery - just like the MF Global crime the J P Morgan exposure may not see the true light of day either - people having their money lifted out of segregated accounts and even having it dragged back via a clawback provisions after they took their money out of MF Global - absolute total swindling. Already there is talk of the J P Morgan mess blowing out to double what Jamie Dimon finally admitted to despite saying only a few months ago that everything was running sweet - these people are pathological liars
Hi mav - you can stalk me - that's ok. How is the new job going?

Yes I am optimistic about US housing, although I don't believe it is going to start soaring up again. I do believe it is rising in many areas. When I look at options to invest in for US residents, then I think that housing looks better than some other areas. Stock market - looks risky, I can't see the DJIA going much above 13000 for a long time, gold - has no return.

Homes are affordable for those with employment, interest rates are at very low rates. People will need homes to live in for as far into the future as I can see. People are scared of housing at the moment, but that will change.

If we assume a level playing field, then I expect US housing to make a slow recovery. However it is housing that is retarding their economy, so I expect the playing field to become unlevel at some point if a recovery doesn't happen soon.

When is the next presidential election? Pretty soon right?



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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TED BULLPIT
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Good luck boys.
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