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Aussie home ownership dream starts to fade; It looks tough if you use made up numbers
Topic Started: 22 May 2012, 11:06 AM (2,699 Views)
miw
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genX
22 May 2012, 12:39 PM

Yes, average wages were 215 per week in 1978 or 11,180 per year.


So for 9x the average wage, you can now buy a 3 bedroom terrace in Lewisham for 650k, except of course that there are no 3 bedroom terraces available in Lewisham for $650k, you would need to pay at least 750k for a 3 bedroom terrace in Lewisham. For 620k you would get a 2 bedroom terrace in Petersham.
So at 750k, a three bedroom terrace in Lewisham would only be 10.7x the average wage, but Graham Roberts (from the article) only paid 5x the average wage for his property in 1978. Sounds like Graham Roberts got a bargain while it was still cheap.

So property in Sydney now really is more than 9 times the average wage. Good catch Frank.
You cannot make a valid affordability comparison like this using the same suburb. In 1978, the population of the Greater Sydney area was 3.1M. It is now 4.6M. Suburbs that were periphery then are gentrified now.

So looking at a place I know, in 1978 the suburb of Springwood in Brisbane was very much a outer suburb low-income area, but now it is mid-tier residential and in a very real sense Springwood has moved to Logan. West End, Newfarm and Inala were almost slums but are now gentrified.

When the population of a city is growing as fast as Australian cities have been over the past 60 years, house valuse get an enormous boost simply from location upgrade - the median moves forther out.

This will not be as marked in the future, since the population is not growing quite as fast, urbanisation (people moving from the country to the city) has probably almost run its course, and the big cities are taking steps to get some control on sprawl, but it looks like continuing for some time in some places.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Frank Castle
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miw
22 May 2012, 02:44 PM
You cannot make a valid affordability comparison like this using the same suburb. In 1978, the population of the Greater Sydney area was 3.1M. It is now 4.6M. Suburbs that were periphery then are gentrified now.

So looking at a place I know, in 1978 the suburb of Springwood in Brisbane was very much a outer suburb low-income area, but now it is mid-tier residential and in a very real sense Springwood has moved to Logan. West End, Newfarm and Inala were almost slums but are now gentrified.

I have seen pictures of my inlaws house when first built in the early 50's.

It was the outskirts of Brisbane, the boonies.
It had vast tracts of land visible around it, dirt road, few houses all with outdoor dunnies.
It was 1 bedroom with verandahs and was affordable, at a pinch for him and his wife.
They took possession in an unfinished state, they painted it at night and weekends and over the years made additions to get it to a 3 bedrooms
Both worked full time and lived a fairly meagre existence by todays standards.

Now its considered almost inner city and its all multi unit dev. sites and million dollar properties
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Doubtful
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Frank Castle
22 May 2012, 01:04 PM
genX
22 May 2012, 12:39 PM
except of course that there are no 3 bedroom terraces available in Lewisham for $650k, you would need to pay at least 750k for a 3 bedroom terrace in Lewisham. For 620k you would get a 2 bedroom terrace in Petersham.


You pay asking price?
Posted Image
Lets approach it from the other angle then Frank. Where did you find your information - ie that you can purchase a $650k 3 bedroom townhouse in lewisham?

The closest I could find was an April 2010 sale (yep, 2 years ago) - however the ad states no bathrooms or car space. And its $670k. And a sh1thole.

http://www.onthehouse.com.au/buy/property/45024535?PageNr=4



So once again - show me any proof that you can buy for $650.
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miw
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Doubtful
22 May 2012, 03:32 PM
Lets approach it from the other angle then Frank. Where did you find your information - ie that you can purchase a $650k 3 bedroom townhouse in lewisham?

The closest I could find was an April 2010 sale (yep, 2 years ago) - however the ad states no bathrooms or car space. And its $670k. And a sh1thole.

http://www.onthehouse.com.au/buy/property/45024535?PageNr=4



So once again - show me any proof that you can buy for $650.
I'm no big expert on Sydney suburbs, but in Brisbane you can now buy in many areas at below 2010 prices, depending on which end of 2010 you are talking about.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Frank Castle
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Doubtful
22 May 2012, 03:32 PM
Lets approach it from the other angle then Frank. Where did you find your information - ie that you can purchase a $650k 3 bedroom townhouse in lewisham?

The closest I could find was an April 2010 sale (yep, 2 years ago) - however the ad states no bathrooms or car space. And its $670k. And a sh1thole.

http://www.onthehouse.com.au/buy/property/45024535?PageNr=4



So once again - show me any proof that you can buy for $650.
Come on, you guys are regularly bangin' on about how you'd offer 30% 40% 50% less and walk away if you dont get it
Are you now telling me that it wouldn't be possible to knock something off of ask?

Considering I can buy right now AT FULL PRICE ($760k) a 4 bedder in that suburb I would think that a three bedder would be worth less and a smart opperator putting in some work and getting a discount even less again.
I would think $650k could be achievable.
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-lewisham-110292449

But you will notice in my OP that I said a "similar" property.
2 LARGE Bedrooms could easily become 3
3 SMALLer bedrooms back in the day could now easily be 2 bedroom.

Also consider that there is only ONE 3 bedder shown for sale in that suburb :re:
http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/with-3-bedrooms-in-lewisham%2c+nsw+2049/list-1?source=refinements
Did you think that perhaps that is why there are none for sale around $650k? :lol
Edited by Frank Castle, 22 May 2012, 03:53 PM.
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Doubtful
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Frank Castle
22 May 2012, 03:46 PM
Doubtful
22 May 2012, 03:32 PM
Lets approach it from the other angle then Frank. Where did you find your information - ie that you can purchase a $650k 3 bedroom townhouse in lewisham?

The closest I could find was an April 2010 sale (yep, 2 years ago) - however the ad states no bathrooms or car space. And its $670k. And a sh1thole.

http://www.onthehouse.com.au/buy/property/45024535?PageNr=4



So once again - show me any proof that you can buy for $650.
Come on, you guys are regularly bangin' on about how you'd offer 30% 40% 50% less and walk away if you dont get it
Are you now telling me that it wouldn't be possible to knock something off of ask?

Considering I can buy right now AT FULL PRICE ($760k) a 4 bedder in that suburb I would think that a three bedder would be worth less and a smart opperator putting in some work and getting a discount even less again.
I would think $650k could be achievable.
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-lewisham-110292449

But you will notice in my OP that I said a "similar" property.
2 LARGE Bedrooms could easily become 3
3 SMALLer bedrooms back in the day could now easily be 2 bedroom.

Also consider that there is only ONE 3 bedder shown for sale in that suburb :re:
http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/with-3-bedrooms-in-lewisham%2c+nsw+2049/list-1?source=refinements
Did you think that perhaps that is why there are none for sale around $650k? :lol
Come on, you guys are regularly bangin' on about how you'd offer 30% 40% 50% less and walk away if you dont get it

Aaah, nice piece of tu quoque there Frank. Cant get away with logical fallacies here mate. Using arguments you have refuted in the past as evidence is pretty poor, I thought you were better than that.

So a 2 bedroom place is similar to a 3 bedroom place. Cool - can you tell that to the vendors of 3 bedroom units I'm inspecting weekly. For some reason they seem to believe a 3 bedder is worth more than a 2? Crazy cats.


Its cool Frank - we wont hammer you on the point. Its clear from your response that you have nothing to back up your original post.



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Frank Castle
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Doubtful
22 May 2012, 04:11 PM


Its cool Frank - we wont hammer you on the point. Its clear from your response that you have nothing to back up your original post.


Sure I do
Quote:
 
Also consider that there is only ONE 3 bedder shown for sale in that suburb :re:
http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/with-3-bedrooms-in-lewisham%2c+nsw+2049/list-1?source=refinements
Did you think that perhaps that is why there are none for sale around $650k? :lol

Find out how much it is for me and find a few more 3 bedders for me, when you do slip me $650k and I'll see how I go for you. ;)
Edited by Frank Castle, 22 May 2012, 05:30 PM.
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Frank Castle
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Doubtful
22 May 2012, 04:11 PM
Its cool Frank - we wont hammer you on the point. Its clear from your response that you have nothing to back up your original post.


Just to rub your nose in a bit :to:
Here's two 3 bedders that sold for less than $650 this year.

Quote:
 


It's cool doubtful, I wont hammer you on the point that you were wrong :to:

Edited by Frank Castle, 22 May 2012, 06:04 PM.
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audas
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Not sure what the point of this is -

Annual average salaries in Australia were $200 / per week in 1978
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/free.nsf/0/20FC2605C4010A92CA25778100216936/$File/13012%20-Vic%20YrBook-1978.pdf


House Prices were around $30-$40k depending on Capital
http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/website_administration/economics_studies_macquarie_university/Econ_docs/research_papers2/2004_research_papers/Abelson_9_04.pdf


Meaning house prices were the global norm at around 3x average salary.

But of course, that was 5 minutes drive to the CBD.



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stinkbug
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audas
22 May 2012, 06:23 PM
Not sure what the point of this is -

Annual average salaries in Australia were $200 / per week in 1978
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/free.nsf/0/20FC2605C4010A92CA25778100216936/$File/13012%20-Vic%20YrBook-1978.pdf


House Prices were around $30-$40k depending on Capital
http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/website_administration/economics_studies_macquarie_university/Econ_docs/research_papers2/2004_research_papers/Abelson_9_04.pdf


Meaning house prices were the global norm at around 3x average salary.

But of course, that was 5 minutes drive to the CBD.



The situation is that when one really been far even as decided once to use even go want, it is then that he has really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like.
That much is just common sense.
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
Can you really be far even as decided half as much to use go wish for that?
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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