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Leith van Onselen -- of Macrobusiness -- makes another enormous blunder!!; Oops -- he did it again!!
Topic Started: 22 May 2012, 10:15 AM (1,998 Views)
Sherlock
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Leith van Onselen, legendary for his "schoolboy errors" on discredited "Macrobusiness" site, today claims --

Quote:
 
when economic conditions deteriorate, causing unemployment to rise, the number of people per dwelling tends to increase as they group together to reduce their housing costs

Let us examine the facts!!

ABS Average household size

Posted Image

Unemployment Rate

Posted Image

When, pray tell, did "people per dwelling tend to increase" when "economic conditions deteriorate, causing unemployment to rise"??

Anyone??
Edited by Sherlock, 22 May 2012, 10:16 AM.
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The Prince
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The Prince
Well spotted Mr. Holmes! As a point of fact, Mr. van Onselen is doubly wrong, as we shall see.

Your chart runs only to 2006. There's more ABS data for the 2006 to 2008 period here........... Link

Posted Image

The only time in Australian recorded history where household size increased, was 2006 to 2008 (I can't find post-2008 data).

What was unemployment doing during that time?

Leith van Onselen's theory would say unemployment must have been rising. But what was really happening?

January 2006 Unemployment Rate = 5.1%
January 2008 Unemployment Rate = 4.3%

It fell! Leith van Onselen = utterly clueless!

The facts, the data, prove the opposite of Leith van Onselen's theory to be true!

'Men are so simple and yield so readily to the desires of the moment that he who will trick will always find another who will suffer to be tricked.' - Niccolo Machiavelli
Edited by The Prince, 22 May 2012, 10:43 AM.
"A prince never lacks legitimate reasons to break his promise" -- Niccolo Machiavelli

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Sherlock
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The Prince
22 May 2012, 10:38 AM
The facts, the data, prove the opposite of Leith van Onselen's theory to be true!
How embarrassing -- for Leith van Onselen and Macrobusiness!!

Posted Image
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TED BULLPIT
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Looking at your graph Sherlock , it seems there is only one direction your unemployment figures can head , and that is up up up .

If you believe these figures , you have been conned. ;)
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audas
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Sherlock
22 May 2012, 10:15 AM
Leith van Onselen, legendary for his "schoolboy errors" on discredited "Macrobusiness" site, today claims --



Let us examine the facts!!

ABS Average household size

Posted Image

Unemployment Rate

Posted Image

When, pray tell, did "people per dwelling tend to increase" when "economic conditions deteriorate, causing unemployment to rise"??

Anyone??
This has to be one of the most embarrassing, feeble, ridiculous posts I have ever seen .

You are comparing a chart spanning over a century, with one spanning 20 years, one with fluctuations of a magnitude of 3 distributed over 11 years the other with fluctuations three times that size compressed into a fifth the time scale -

Your an absolute nuff nuff.

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stinkbug
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audas
22 May 2012, 10:59 AM

Your an absolute nuff nuff.
I think you'll find it's actually 'you're'.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Sherlock
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audas
22 May 2012, 10:59 AM
This has to be one of the most embarrassing, feeble, ridiculous posts I have ever seen .

You are comparing a chart spanning over a century, with one spanning 20 years, one with fluctuations of a magnitude of 3 distributed over 11 years the other with fluctuations three times that size compressed into a fifth the time scale -

Your [sic] an absolute nuff nuff.
Are you the same gentleman, who made -- this embarrassing gaffe -- yesterday??

Why Sir, I do believe you are!!

The timespans of the charts above, make no difference to the conclusion!!

Unemployment rose sharply in the 80s and 90s -- but persons per dwelling kept falling!!

Unemployment fell between 2006 and 2006 -- but persons per dwelling rose!!

As my learned friend The Prince correctly states -- it did the opposite, of Leith van Onselen's daft theory!!
Edited by Sherlock, 22 May 2012, 11:15 AM.
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Dr Watson
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You call that an "enormous" blunder? I think you protest too loudly. MacroBusiness must be doing something to have you so worried.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Daniel Birke
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Sherlock Holmes
22 May 2012, 11:33 AM
You call that an "enormous" blunder? I think you protest too loudly. MacroBusiness must be doing something to have you so worried.
It's a central point of the article - i.e. rising unemployment results in more persons per household, thereby eliminating housing shortages. The fact that it doesn't appear to hold true in Australia is rather important, I should think? Personally, I believe household density is driven more by changes in divorce rate, life expectancy, how many kids people choose to have, population growth rate, and dwelling construction.

By the way, two Sherlocks? Confusing.
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stinkbug
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There's also the immigration wildcard.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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