Overlaying selective cherry picked sections of selective cherry picked time charts, adjusting to remove inflation, time transposing them by specific cherry picked 19 year and 4 year periods, and then drawing similarity conclusions on the basis of even poor resulting correlation is a classic text book extreme example of a mental illness known as :
APOPHENIA
I suspect that Keen would have achieved greater correlation if he had compared selected time transposed periods for Ozzie house prices and the price of whores in Timbuktoo adjusted for whore quality.
There are two obvious statements made by that graph.
1. The Australian house price trajectory does not resemble that taken by the USA.
2. It is following Japan for now, but Japan has negative population growth, and a rapidly aging workforce, so demand for available housing will keep falling whilst supply will remain quite high. Therefore although we closely follow Japan for the moment, that is unlikely to remain so in the long term.
Yes, just like macrobusiness ceased using their chart showing similarity in Oz and US falls for a short while using RP Data figures rather than ABS figures. That chart would no longer show the similarity and, despite repeated requests from MB members, it is no longer updated by MB.
There are two obvious statements made by that graph.
1. The Australian house price trajectory does not resemble that taken by the USA.
2. It is following Japan for now, but Japan has negative population growth, and a rapidly aging workforce, so demand for available housing will keep falling whilst supply will remain quite high. Therefore although we closely follow Japan for the moment, that is unlikely to remain so in the long term.
Steve may stop using this graph in 12 months.
Japan was and is overpopulated as fuck. So there has always been a massive demand for housing, much greater than here. But yet it still crashed because it was a ponzi scheme fuelled by too easy credit.
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
There are two obvious statements made by that graph.
1. The Australian house price trajectory does not resemble that taken by the USA.
2. It is following Japan for now, but Japan has negative population growth, and a rapidly aging workforce, so demand for available housing will keep falling whilst supply will remain quite high. Therefore although we closely follow Japan for the moment, that is unlikely to remain so in the long term.
Steve may stop using this graph in 12 months.
Wait, what ?
Japan trend line for population growth in Japan has been negative since the 1960's so your full of shit.
Secondly, japan has amongst the highest population density on earth with its 127 million crammed into cities with some of the worlds largest forest and preservation initiatives in place for decades relative to land. In other words - some of the highest densities on earth.
Ive seen some serious shit come out of your mouth - but to deny that Japan suffered a bubble and then a burst due to the asian meltdown is just ludicrous in the most extreme form -
I see all your posts are now being actively deleted from other websites you visit because it is so obvious what unmitigated crap you talk.
Seriously - I wouldn't expect something this asinine even from you.
Japan was and is overpopulated as fuck. So there has always been a massive demand for housing, much greater than here. But yet it still crashed because it was a ponzi scheme fuelled by too easy credit.
What Peter Fraser Just wrote - goes down in history as the biggest steaming pile of shit ever put to past a keyboard - serious Spruik right there.
There are two obvious statements made by that graph.
1. The Australian house price trajectory does not resemble that taken by the USA.
2. It is following Japan for now, but Japan has negative population growth, and a rapidly aging workforce, so demand for available housing will keep falling whilst supply will remain quite high. Therefore although we closely follow Japan for the moment, that is unlikely to remain so in the long term.
Steve may stop using this graph in 12 months.
Japan was and is overpopulated as fuck. So there has always been a massive demand for housing, much greater than here. But yet it still crashed because it was a ponzi scheme fuelled by too easy credit.
The population growth rate turned negative in 2005
There are two obvious statements made by that graph.
1. The Australian house price trajectory does not resemble that taken by the USA.
2. It is following Japan for now, but Japan has negative population growth, and a rapidly aging workforce, so demand for available housing will keep falling whilst supply will remain quite high. Therefore although we closely follow Japan for the moment, that is unlikely to remain so in the long term.
Steve may stop using this graph in 12 months.
Wait, what ?
Japan trend line for population growth in Japan has been negative since the 1960's so your full of shit.
Secondly, japan has amongst the highest population density on earth with its 127 million crammed into cities with some of the worlds largest forest and preservation initiatives in place for decades relative to land. In other words - some of the highest densities on earth.
Ive seen some serious shit come out of your mouth - but to deny that Japan suffered a bubble and then a burst due to the asian meltdown is just ludicrous in the most extreme form -
I see all your posts are now being actively deleted from other websites you visit because it is so obvious what unmitigated crap you talk.
Seriously - I wouldn't expect something this asinine even from you.
I've just posted a graph that confirms that the population wasn't negative back in 1960. I certainly don't deny the bubble in real estate in Japan, and the bursting of that bubble. Are you seriously deluded?
There is a huge difference between the demographics in Japan and the demographics here.
You have 18 degress apparently - why do I need to explain basic facts to you?
In fact if you go to that Graph and make the comparison to Australia, it will become readily apparent even to you. Add to that the economic malaise that Japan has been in with it's zirp policies failing to stimulate demand at almost any level, and you will start to get the picture.
The graph Peter linked to indicates their population growth rate peaked around 1960.
Japan has many problems, but key among them is that Mr and Mrs Watabe shunned debt after the bubble burst, despite the ultra-stimulatory policies of the BOJ.
The same thing could happen here.
We have "enjoyed" 100 basis points of reductions since November (leave aside the out-of-cycle increases) and what have we to show for it?
House prices continue to fall.
So what is needed to stabilise the market? Another 50-point cut? Another 100? 200?
When will Australians gleefully resume bidding up the value of their homes again?
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