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Chart of Australia v Japan v USA house price falls from peak; Where is it?
Topic Started: 21 May 2012, 01:28 PM (6,852 Views)
peter fraser
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audas
21 May 2012, 08:15 PM
stinkbug
21 May 2012, 05:14 PM
If a 10% property tax was brought in I'd immediately hit my tenants up for rental increases. It probably wouldn't cover the whole amount, but I'd push as hard as I could for as long as I could until it did.
Its illegal.

Sorry - you could of course try and kick your tenants out and get new ones, but not likely is it, since there is a massive oversupply of housing and the mining boom is up shit creek.
It's certainly legal in commercial property.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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peter fraser
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audas
21 May 2012, 08:16 PM
peter fraser
21 May 2012, 08:02 PM
HMMM - Clearly he doesn't have a masters in land tax, perhaps his PHD in standup comedy got the better of him.

That really is a strawman and simply an impossible suggestion. If it was introduced the cost would be a small fraction of one percent at most, and as annoying as it would be, it would be quite bearable for most people. If someone wants to do the exercise, just divide the annual stamp duty income by the number of homes in the state to get an approximation of the average cost per dwelling. Many companies and large landholder currently pay land tax, but ordinary home owners don't.


Try and work out hwat is being said before you humiliate yourself Peter - I know its hard, but try and stay on topic.
audas you are the one making a laughing stock of yourself with your claim about a land tax of 10%.

I'm actually quite literate on commercial realities, so would you like me to give you a few basic tips.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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stinkbug
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audas
21 May 2012, 08:15 PM
Its illegal.

Sorry - you could of course try and kick your tenants out and get new ones, but not likely is it, since there is a massive oversupply of housing and the mining boom is up shit creek.
Yeah - massive oversupply of housing. That's why I have people lining up to rent my inner city properties, in a state with no mining. Besides, there's always ways to cycle tenants legally (as any landlord knows).
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Sherlock
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audas
21 May 2012, 08:18 PM
Quote:
 
Strindberg
Nope. Steve Keen called the 40% crash AFTER the FHOG boost had been announced.
Absolute HORSE SHIT.
Strindberg is right, you are wrong -- again!!

The First Home Owners Boost was introduced on 14 October 2008

Steve Keen says -- http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/05/12/a-monkey-off-my-back/

Quote:
 
Macquarie Bank interest rate strategist Rory Robertson and I shared the bill on November 26th 2008 (the month after the Government introduced what I prefer to call the First Home Vendors Boost, with the unspoken objective of supporting house prices–see “Rescuing the Economy or the Bubble?” and “FHB Boost is Australia’s “Sub-prime Lite”“), in what was billed as “Economic futures: two views”. In the middle of his presentation—and without any prior warning—Rory sprang the bet on me in front of 80-100 Parliament House staffers (and some politicians).

Having been caught by surprise, I agreed to it

- -

Rory: Well how about this? If Australian house prices as measured by the Statistician fall from peak to trough in nominal terms by 40 percent, I will walk from Canberra to the top of Kosciuszko, and if in fact Australian house prices fall by less than 20 percent, so if it just turns out you’re less than half right, … I will wear a shirt saying “I was hopelessly wrong” if they fall 40 percent, you should wear a shirt saying “I was hopelessly wrong” if it doesn’t…
Edited by Sherlock, 21 May 2012, 08:56 PM.
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Trojan
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Sherlock
21 May 2012, 08:55 PM
Hard to disagree with that one when it comes from Steve's own website
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Sydneyite
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On the Steve Keen 40% crash call vs FHBG boost timing question, I think there a couple of ways to view this:

1) Stindberg is correct that Keen made his famous 40% house price crash bet with Rory Robsinson AFTER the FHBG boost was announced / introduced

2) Keen had also expressed his view that prices would crash 40% before the FHBG boost was introduced, including prominently in the MSM - so Audus and TheMoops are (kind of) correct on that as well

So it comes down to semantics - however, what is indisputable is that Keen clearly COMPLETELY FAILED to recognise the potential impact of the FHBG boost at the time it was announced. He doggedly stuck to his housing D&G predictions for a long period of time while the boost was in operation, and only well after it became very clear how successful the boost, and the slashing of interest rates etc, had been in provoking pent up demand for housing purschases, did he start railing against the "first home vendors boost" (as he still calls it), and blaming it for his massively failed predictions.

To me, this shows that Keens understanding of the workings of the housing market, his theories and his models are / were fundamentally flawed, as they failed to account for clearly extremely important fundamental factors like the level of government intervention in the housing market - including grants, interest rates, and taxation, and the interaction of these factors with underlying demand. So it would seem his aggregate debt level focused modeling only looks at half the picture, hence why he is often wrong on housing market outcomes.
Edited by Sydneyite, 22 May 2012, 09:56 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Dr Watson
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Keen's call was wrong and he duly took a hike. It's now ancient history. Time to move on.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Strindberg
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Alex Barton
21 May 2012, 01:30 PM
Overlaying selective cherry picked sections of selective cherry picked time charts, adjusting to remove inflation, time transposing them by specific cherry picked 19 year and 4 year periods, and then drawing similarity conclusions on the basis of even poor resulting correlation is a classic text book extreme example of a mental illness known as :

APOPHENIA

I suspect that Keen would have achieved greater correlation if he had compared selected time transposed periods for Ozzie house prices and the price of whores in Timbuktoo adjusted for whore quality.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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earthsta
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Strindberg
22 May 2012, 10:30 AM
Overlaying selective cherry picked sections of selective cherry picked time charts, adjusting to remove inflation, time transposing them by specific cherry picked 19 year and 4 year periods, and then drawing similarity conclusions on the basis of even poor resulting correlation is a classic text book extreme example of a mental illness known as :

STRINDBERGITIS

Corrected for you
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Strindberg
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earthsta
22 May 2012, 02:22 PM
Corrected for you
Seriously, Steve Keen's chart is a desperate act to find justification.

I'm not even convinced that the data he used to compile it is correct and non-cherry pickable. Steve will only disclose the base data for the chart to people who have given him money. That way he ensures that only his supporters can check his sums. Such people are unlikely to be critical of his selective data choices. Perhaps you (or anyone else) have made the appropriate subscription to Steve Keen and can post his data here or in a PM to me.

Steve has chosen two countries out of more than 200 in the world with which to compare the time series of house prices with Australia. Why those two? He has chosen specific nominal price data for each of the countries - which data has he used? Macrobusiness used RP Data for a similar chart to claim that Australia was following the US. Steve has chosen the ABS data. The use of ABS data provides a different picture to the use of nominal RP Data. Steve gives the peak for Japan as 1991 without more precision yet adopts a time scale which is much more precise than a whole year. What month has he chosen for Japan's peak? What is the precise transposition period for the US and Japanese chart lines?
Steve claims the chart to show real prices. What series of inflation has he chosen for each chart line? Is he really accepting official inflation data as being accurate and directly comparable between the 3 countries?

In summary, Steve has:
- selected 2 countries out of 200+ to compare with Australia
- selected house price data of his own choosing for each country
- time transposed one by ~ 4 years
- time transposed the other by ~ 19 years
- adjusted each by a different inflation measure of his own choosing
- kept his data and choices private.

Anyone who believes any conclusions drawn from such a process is a gullible sucker.

Edit add: If the falls in time-displaced time series charts are to be compared, as Steve has attempted, it is disingenuous to avoid a comparison of the prior rises, as Steve has done. Even a cursory look at the rises to the 3 respective peaks will reveal the rises in Australia to have a very different character to the US and Japan rises. The US and Japan house prices are characterised by a continuous strong rise as opposed to Australia's up and down character between 2003 and the peak of 2010. Comparing only the falls and not the prior rises is simply dishonest misrepresentation of the time displaced times series charts.
Edited by Strindberg, 23 May 2012, 11:09 AM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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