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Chart of Australia v Japan v USA house price falls from peak; Where is it?
Topic Started: 21 May 2012, 01:28 PM (6,847 Views)
Mc_Gusto
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mcgusto

hi

i am looking for the post which includes the chart (and analysis) of aus v jpn v US housing...falls from the peak
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Steve Keen: Australian House Prices Down 10% From Peak

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Mc_Gusto
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mcgusto

thanks

there is one that looks like this

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/956CF00AC0AB7DF6CA2579F2001B5491/$file/120502%20House%20price%20crashes.png

which was analysed for its accuracy / inaccuracy

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Pig Iron
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Alex Barton
21 May 2012, 01:30 PM
hang on didn't he claim a crash was coming in 2008-9. so why is this graph calling a peak from mid 2010?
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audas
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timmy
21 May 2012, 04:05 PM
hang on didn't he claim a crash was coming in 2008-9. so why is this graph calling a peak from mid 2010?
Before the First Home Owners Grant - which quite obviously was a massive distortion in the market -
imagine what would happen if the government decided to take away Negative Gearing and Add 10% property tax - yep, 60% decline over night - government welfare.
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Strindberg
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audas
21 May 2012, 04:25 PM
Before the First Home Owners Grant -
Nope. Steve Keen called the 40% crash AFTER the FHOG boost had been announced.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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miw
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audas
21 May 2012, 04:25 PM
Before the First Home Owners Grant - which quite obviously was a massive distortion in the market -
imagine what would happen if the government decided to take away Negative Gearing and Add 10% property tax - yep, 60% decline over night - government welfare.
Removing negative gearing would have a lot less impact that a lot of people think - in either direction. In the short-term it would drop prices a bit, and in the medium-term it would raise rents a bit but we are talking single digit % here.

Adding a 10% property tax would certainly throw the cat amongst the pigeons though, but it might not have the effect anyone would want. Highly-leveraged PIs would be forced out and probably bankrupted to boot. Those PIs who could hold on for a couple of years would, and then they would do quite well because they could increase rents to get the gross yield above 17% and recoup their loss in about 5 years. If the property tax was levied on owner-occupiers, many of them would be forced out as well, PIs would buy their houses and then turn around and screw them on the rent. If owner-occupiers were not affected, then it would represent the most massive transfer of wealth from renters to owners that you could imagine.

As a PI who could survive the first year, I would say "bring it on!" except that wanting so much pain to be dealt to others for my profit seems unethical.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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stinkbug
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If a 10% property tax was brought in I'd immediately hit my tenants up for rental increases. It probably wouldn't cover the whole amount, but I'd push as hard as I could for as long as I could until it did.
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peter fraser
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miw
21 May 2012, 05:05 PM
audas
21 May 2012, 04:25 PM
Before the First Home Owners Grant - which quite obviously was a massive distortion in the market -
imagine what would happen if the government decided to take away Negative Gearing and Add 10% property tax - yep, 60% decline over night - government welfare.
Removing negative gearing would have a lot less impact that a lot of people think - in either direction. In the short-term it would drop prices a bit, and in the medium-term it would raise rents a bit but we are talking single digit % here.

Adding a 10% property tax would certainly throw the cat amongst the pigeons though, but it might not have the effect anyone would want. Highly-leveraged PIs would be forced out and probably bankrupted to boot. Those PIs who could hold on for a couple of years would, and then they would do quite well because they could increase rents to get the gross yield above 17% and recoup their loss in about 5 years. If the property tax was levied on owner-occupiers, many of them would be forced out as well, PIs would buy their houses and then turn around and screw them on the rent. If owner-occupiers were not affected, then it would represent the most massive transfer of wealth from renters to owners that you could imagine.

As a PI who could survive the first year, I would say "bring it on!" except that wanting so much pain to be dealt to others for my profit seems unethical.
May I ask where you got the 10% property tax from. If it is a replacement for stamp duty then it is replacing a tax that is far lower than 10% and it is only paid on the properties that changed hands. So a broader tax against all property of 10% would raise far in excess of what is raised now. I would have thought that any land tax would be quite small per household. Large investors already pay land tax in most states, so the effect would be felt by home owners and small investors.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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miw
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stinkbug
21 May 2012, 05:14 PM
If a 10% property tax was brought in I'd immediately hit my tenants up for rental increases. It probably wouldn't cover the whole amount, but I'd push as hard as I could for as long as I could until it did.
I did exactly that when Qld started hitting me with land tax about 8 years ago. For the next lease renewal, I added the tax pro-rata (mostly $5/wk) to the normal market rental increase and asked my agent to inform them as to what it was for. I had no trouble getting it, so I assume every other landlord was doing the same thing. The tax came out of the renter's pockets, not mine.
Edited by miw, 21 May 2012, 05:23 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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