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QLD house prices rise for the first time in 18 months; Brisbane market recovering (again)
Topic Started: 19 May 2012, 07:16 AM (2,372 Views)
genX
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peter fraser
21 May 2012, 07:48 PM
Draw your own conclusions.

Suckers rally?

One data point does not a trend make. It could be turning around, I personally think not.

It could be a flight to perceived 'safety' in light of the recent carnage in equities markets. Could be Chinese money fleeing (that would be worrying), or simply an FX play as the AUD dips below parity.

Or it could be just one data point.
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peter fraser
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genX
21 May 2012, 09:30 PM
peter fraser
21 May 2012, 07:48 PM
Draw your own conclusions.

Suckers rally?

One data point does not a trend make. It could be turning around, I personally think not.

It could be a flight to perceived 'safety' in light of the recent carnage in equities markets. Could be Chinese money fleeing (that would be worrying), or simply an FX play as the AUD dips below parity.

Or it could be just one data point.
I thought that three graphs were bearish, and one was bullish.

I'm not sure what your point is, do you feel that I was inaccurate in my summary? I tried to be realistic and just state the obvious points.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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TED BULLPIT
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Frank Castle
21 May 2012, 08:16 AM
The bears have left this thread alone haven't they :to:

Posted Image
Angry Bear say's NO
Leave it alone , why would we do that , I was just on a break ;)

Just did a median house price search of your property at Depot hill, its shows its on a downer with a median house price of $170,000 exactly.

See who leaves it alone now ;)
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Frank Castle
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TED BULLPIT
22 May 2012, 10:48 AM


Just did a median house price search of your property at Depot hill,

Not on my property you didnt ;)

Quote:
 
its shows its on a downer

Again, you didnt look at my property.
Quote:
 
with a median house price of $170,000 exactly.

On how many sales, 3?
All flood affected and knock downs? :re:

Quote:
 
See who leaves it alone now ;)

Ted, I know you cant leave it alone but perhaps you should before you go blind :lol

and thanks for the PM's proving once again the instability of your small mind :re:
Edited by Frank Castle, 22 May 2012, 11:27 AM.
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TED BULLPIT
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You have already told us how your property has flooded before, and with all this rain it would have flooded again. So I told know who you are trying to kid here Mr castle because the fact is you bought in a river bed.
Great move :tu:
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Frank Castle
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TED BULLPIT
22 May 2012, 11:55 AM
You have already told us how your property has flooded before, and with all this rain it would have flooded again.
The ground got wet but not a drop entered the property :re:

Quote:
 
So I told know who you are trying to kid here Mr castle because the fact is you bought in a river bed.


Yeah, buying in flood is for fools.
Posted Image

If only I could have bought all of this when it was less than $100k for double blocks with houses on them :re:

Quote:
 
Great move :tu:


I think so
Amalgamated sites in the area are getting material change of use/re-zoning done and selling for high prices


Quote:
 
Timeline for: 320-326 George Street, DEPOT HILL QLD 4700

Property Market History
DateTypePublicationProperty TypePrice
22/03/2012SoldGovernment Notified Sale (Normal Sale)Commercial$700,000
17/11/2006SoldGovernment Notified Sale (Normal Sale)Dwelling$240,000


Guess who has sites much better positioned that are ripe for this? ;)
Edited by Frank Castle, 22 May 2012, 12:16 PM.
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TED BULLPIT
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Frank Castle
22 May 2012, 12:13 PM
The ground got wet but not a drop entered the property :re:




Yeah, buying in flood is for fools.
Posted Image

If only I could have bought all of this when it was less than $100k for double blocks with houses on them :re:




I think so
Amalgamated sites in the area are getting material change of use/re-zoning done and selling for high prices





Guess who has sites much better positioned that are ripe for this? ;)
Too bad you did not put a deposit on that property you highlighted.
The only commercial I would think of looking at would be industrial and I am still uncertain on this.
If you get get a cheap block , build some industrial units and rent it out there is some good returns to be had but with things now looking shaky I would be cautious of doing this. My latest RE magazine talks about industrial being the go but I am not so sure. You might have more chance up there, who knows. I saw a vacant commercial corner block sell for 38k at rocky a not long back , throw a industrial unit ir two on it and rent it out. There is too much uncertainty going on now to know what will happen so I will be sitting tight for a while yet.
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Frank Castle
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TED BULLPIT
22 May 2012, 12:41 PM
Too bad you did not put a deposit on that property you highlighted.
Ted, I have no need to.
I already have properties like this that I purchased for less...............a lot less. ;)

Quote:
 
The only commercial I would think of looking at would be industrial and I am still uncertain on this.
If you get get a cheap block , build some industrial units and rent it out there is some good returns to be had but with things now looking shaky I would be cautious of doing this.

Your opinion flops around a lot
Quote:
 
My latest RE magazine talks about industrial being the go but I am not so sure. You might have more chance up there, who knows.

So you admit you are clueless on the situation
Quote:
 
I saw a vacant commercial corner block sell for 38k at rocky a not long back , throw a industrial unit ir two on it and rent it out.


Too bad you did not put a deposit on that property.
I bet it wasn't commercial and instead was a horse paddock ;)
Quote:
 
There is too much uncertainty going on now to know what will happen so I will be sitting tight for a while yet.

You do that ted :lol
Lets the likes of me get in and buy cheap and then sell to the likes of you (at a considerable profit ;) ) when there is more certainty
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TED BULLPIT
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You wont be seeing any certainty for a few years yet . Just be ready to clean up the mess. ;)
The pollies seem to want to make this a slow bleed instead of letting the market run its natural course.
So long and painful seems like the recipe for us , think Japan ;)
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genX
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peter fraser
21 May 2012, 09:37 PM
I thought that three graphs were bearish, and one was bullish.

I'm not sure what your point is, do you feel that I was inaccurate in my summary? I tried to be realistic and just state the obvious points.
You said, and I quote
Quote:
 
Draw your own conclusions.


Which I did. I think it's a suckers rally. However, it's only one data point, so much more important is what the numbers are next quarter and the quarter after that.

My old statistics professor used to say that it takes a minimum of 12 data points to determine any meaningful statistical inferences, which for quarterly sales figures would mean 3 years! The monthly data is better in that regard, but it contains so much sampling error (because of the small sample size of properties sold), and possibly reporting bias, that it also takes at least 18 months before one can determine a trend.

Right now I think the market is in congestion, although prices in some major cities are clearly trending downward. As I have stated previously, I don't believe in prolonged periods of flat prices in markets that are driven by non-linear systems such as credit. Given this, I think the charts above most likely indicate a suckers rally, and not a reversal.

Quote:
 
Gold Coast House:
Falling sales volumes appear to have bottomed, and prices are increasing.

I think not, but let's wait for Q2.
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