The housing market has been devastated in the past few years, creating unprecedented problems for homeowners and putting on halt the dreams of homeowner hopefuls. Chillingly, the number of Americans who are at least a month behind on their mortgage payments has climbed to eight million. Meanwhile, up to two-thirds of bank-owned residential properties are not yet on the market, tying up the industry in ways that will take years to unravel. Maybe someday the number of housing sales will start to creep in the positive direction again, but the majority of Americans believe that the recovery is still years away. (Right click, view image, to show in full size)
1. Delinquencies are falling, and have been for a while.
2. Prices have been pretty stable for a couple of quarters now.
3. Housing starts are up sharply this last few months, to an annual rate of about 717,000 dwellings/year. (This is well down from the Jan 2006 peak of 2.23M, but well up on the 490k figures Jan '09) Housing stocks like Home Depot, the home builders, lumber, etc. are about the only stocks above their 50 and 200-day moving averages on the US stock market at the moment.
4. Many of those houses now in bank posession will never come back on the market in any real way. They are in areas where people don't want houses, and they deteriorate very fast when nobody is occupying them. The overhang is probably less than half the number of houses in possession.
The counter-argument to the counter-argument is that the chance of the US going into recession again this year is very high, making the current situation simply a consolidation before a further drop.
Housing stock in the US is also at 6.2 months supply, with 6 months being a normal market prior to the GFC. Bidding wars have started up again as more people compete for less stock on the market in the US. Housing is now one of the bright spots for the US economy. It is the missing item needed for sustained economic growth due to the huge impact construction of news home has.
The big reason for this is US consumer like Australians have corrected alot of their balanc sheets over the last 4 years, paying down debt and increasing savings.
The US like Australia also has a healthy growing population to buy up excess demand in housing over a peroid of time. Great way for young people in the US to get into the housing market provided they have stable job of which most do.
People who predict the demise of the US are simply wrong. The US has one of the only growing populations in the western world. With a present population of over 320 million and expected to reach over 450 million by 2050. Chinas population is set to start declining from 2015 onwards and age at a rapid rate.
People need to get perspective. In 1930s in the largest depression seen the US emerged from it after fighting World War II as a Super Power. People say oh but they made things back then, yes they did although much of its factories were closed and mothballed at the time. The US today is still the worlds largest manufactor by a big margin, just much of it is for domestic consumption. China is the worlds biggest exporter, closely followed by Germany, they export far more manufactored products as they lack the domestic market to consume their products, something the US manufactoring sector does not.
If as many of you claim and China implodes, the US will sit atop of the world with no peer competitor in sight. If China does implode it will not be an asian century after all but another American one.
Housing stock in the US is also at 6.2 months supply, with 6 months being a normal market prior to the GFC. Bidding wars have started up again as more people compete for less stock on the market in the US. Housing is now one of the bright spots for the US economy. It is the missing item needed for sustained economic growth due to the huge impact construction of news home has.
The big reason for this is US consumer like Australians have corrected alot of their balanc sheets over the last 4 years, paying down debt and increasing savings.
The US like Australia also has a healthy growing population to buy up excess demand in housing over a peroid of time. Great way for young people in the US to get into the housing market provided they have stable job of which most do.
People who predict the demise of the US are simply wrong. The US has one of the only growing populations in the western world. With a present population of over 320 million and expected to reach over 450 million by 2050. Chinas population is set to start declining from 2015 onwards and age at a rapid rate.
People need to get perspective. In 1930s in the largest depression seen the US emerged from it after fighting World War II as a Super Power. People say oh but they made things back then, yes they did although much of its factories were closed and mothballed at the time. The US today is still the worlds largest manufactor by a big margin, just much of it is for domestic consumption. China is the worlds biggest exporter, closely followed by Germany, they export far more manufactored products as they lack the domestic market to consume their products, something the US manufactoring sector does not.
If as many of you claim and China implodes, the US will sit atop of the world with no peer competitor in sight. If China does implode it will not be an asian century after all but another American one.
Um - you are having a lend aren't you ?
Or are you being serious - Im not sure where exactly one is meant to start with this steaming pile of made up junk - did you even BOTHER to look at the info graphic ? Seriously did you ?
You're assessment of the US housing market is nothing short of horse shit.
AS for you're assessment of the US you have gleaned the most simplistic understanding of overheard urban myths cobbled together with what can only be assumed to be vibes and zero facts.
China took the mantle of worlds largest manufacturer in 2010 - it took the worlds largest exporter in 2011 overtook Japan as second largest economy in 2012 and is set to overtake the US around 2018.
The United states has absolutely decimated its manufacturing sector, on top of that it has crippled its wage earners through the biggest real wage destruction in its entire history - consumers are dead..its manufacturing sector has been off shored more than any other country not just to China, but India as well - services especially. Bridges and heavy domestic construction which are traditional mainstays of a stimulus and Keynesian revival have been off shored to Chinese manufacturers - yes BRIDGES are not even being built in or by Americans.
The entire US car manufacturing industry was shipped down south - hence why Detroit and Flint are dead - their steel died 20 years ago.
US employment figures vary - but are hugely warped as they are not actual measurements but samples, there are almost six indexes, and these reflect previous measurement techniques - some off them put unemployment well above depression levels. While youth unemployment is through the roof, not to mention the debt issues along with under employment and discouraged or non-claimants. The figures are startling.
America destroyed its manufacturing years ago - sorry it just did - the main industries now are defense, service, finance and prior to the downturn housing like large parts of Australia.
America is in more trouble in more areas than you can poke a stick at - it is in seriously deep water. The only option for America is to downsize its military and reintroduce historical normal levels of taxation on its wealthy (60%++) neither of which are going to happen.
The next generation of Americans are burdened with massive debts, there is NO RECOVERY anywhere in the housing market, the only recovery has been via stimulus and capital injection into their banking system, which is ow massively exposed to the EU collapse .
America is facing the greatest infrastructure collapse of any nation ever, there has been no investment in 30 years and the place is falling apart. Their petro-dollar reliance is coming to an end as India, Russia, China all turn away from reliance and commence their own basket of currencies, Gold and even direct transfers instead of using $USD - this means a continuing decline in the dollars value, potential inflation as bond yields soar and the mother of all issues facing the US which is simply not being dealt with their unimaginable levels of debt -
Even Obama has admitted that the next century is the Asian century, and if the US wants to have any relevance it needs to turn away from the middle east and Europe towards Asia, and it you haven't been noticing what has been happening with the Arab spring and EU meltdown that's exactly whats happening. The Darwin base is a prime example of America shifting into Asia as it knows it has to compete and at least try and stay close to what will be the worlds biggest super power within the decade China.
So yeah - great post Mike, maybe you might want to do another one on Fast Breeder Reactors, the algorithms required by cern to regulate the accelerators, or anything else you clearly haven't got a clue about - because you're seriously uninformed about America.
1. Delinquencies are falling, and have been for a while.
2. Prices have been pretty stable for a couple of quarters now.
3. Housing starts are up sharply this last few months, to an annual rate of about 717,000 dwellings/year. (This is well down from the Jan 2006 peak of 2.23M, but well up on the 490k figures Jan '09) Housing stocks like Home Depot, the home builders, lumber, etc. are about the only stocks above their 50 and 200-day moving averages on the US stock market at the moment.
4. Many of those houses now in bank posession will never come back on the market in any real way. They are in areas where people don't want houses, and they deteriorate very fast when nobody is occupying them. The overhang is probably less than half the number of houses in possession.
The counter-argument to the counter-argument is that the chance of the US going into recession again this year is very high, making the current situation simply a consolidation before a further drop.
A year before election and you really believe that there is growth in the USA. Oh my god. As previously discussed 50 million people on food stamps. The government is talking 8.1 unemployment rate. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah. Try conservatively 15-20%.
Mr Murdoch to thank for that. He didn't know about the phone tapping either. To add, none of his other newspapers or staff does this in any other country either.
We live in a farce that is unravelling very fast. Last point Australian property to crash.
Or are you being serious - Im not sure where exactly one is meant to start with this steaming pile of made up junk - did you even BOTHER to look at the info graphic ? Seriously did you ?
You're assessment of the US housing market is nothing short of horse shit.
AS for you're assessment of the US you have gleaned the most simplistic understanding of overheard urban myths cobbled together with what can only be assumed to be vibes and zero facts.
China took the mantle of worlds largest manufacturer in 2010 - it took the worlds largest exporter in 2011 overtook Japan as second largest economy in 2012 and is set to overtake the US around 2018.
The United states has absolutely decimated its manufacturing sector, on top of that it has crippled its wage earners through the biggest real wage destruction in its entire history - consumers are dead..its manufacturing sector has been off shored more than any other country not just to China, but India as well - services especially. Bridges and heavy domestic construction which are traditional mainstays of a stimulus and Keynesian revival have been off shored to Chinese manufacturers - yes BRIDGES are not even being built in or by Americans.
The entire US car manufacturing industry was shipped down south - hence why Detroit and Flint are dead - their steel died 20 years ago.
US employment figures vary - but are hugely warped as they are not actual measurements but samples, there are almost six indexes, and these reflect previous measurement techniques - some off them put unemployment well above depression levels. While youth unemployment is through the roof, not to mention the debt issues along with under employment and discouraged or non-claimants. The figures are startling.
America destroyed its manufacturing years ago - sorry it just did - the main industries now are defense, service, finance and prior to the downturn housing like large parts of Australia.
America is in more trouble in more areas than you can poke a stick at - it is in seriously deep water. The only option for America is to downsize its military and reintroduce historical normal levels of taxation on its wealthy (60%++) neither of which are going to happen.
The next generation of Americans are burdened with massive debts, there is NO RECOVERY anywhere in the housing market, the only recovery has been via stimulus and capital injection into their banking system, which is ow massively exposed to the EU collapse .
America is facing the greatest infrastructure collapse of any nation ever, there has been no investment in 30 years and the place is falling apart. Their petro-dollar reliance is coming to an end as India, Russia, China all turn away from reliance and commence their own basket of currencies, Gold and even direct transfers instead of using $USD - this means a continuing decline in the dollars value, potential inflation as bond yields soar and the mother of all issues facing the US which is simply not being dealt with their unimaginable levels of debt -
Even Obama has admitted that the next century is the Asian century, and if the US wants to have any relevance it needs to turn away from the middle east and Europe towards Asia, and it you haven't been noticing what has been happening with the Arab spring and EU meltdown that's exactly whats happening. The Darwin base is a prime example of America shifting into Asia as it knows it has to compete and at least try and stay close to what will be the worlds biggest super power within the decade China.
So yeah - great post Mike, maybe you might want to do another one on Fast Breeder Reactors, the algorithms required by cern to regulate the accelerators, or anything else you clearly haven't got a clue about - because you're seriously uninformed about America.
Great reply, best thing I have read on this forum, great work auras.
One question Mike, how can Americans buy houses when they have no jobs. Looks like house prices will head back to what people can afford, dole payments
China took the mantle of worlds largest manufacturer in 2010 - it took the worlds largest exporter in 2011 overtook Japan as second largest economy in 2012 and is set to overtake the US around 2018.
I think we can safely say this is not going to happen. US GDP in 2011 was about $14.7 Trillion vs. China's GDP of 47-odd Trillion Yuan. At today's exchange rate, that's about double. The estimate of 2018 was made when China's economy was still growing at 10%+ per annum.
At constant exchange rate, if China's growth exceeds US growth by 7.2% (it won't) the we have China passing the US by about 2022. But China will hit the middle-income trap well before that, so China's trend growth won't even be 7% by the end of this decade.
Also, China's percentage of working-age population started to decline in 2011 and the working-age population will peak in absolute numbers this decade and start dropping off quite sharply. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has the current ratio of working people to elderly at 5.4:1 today, 2.5:1 in 2030 and 1.6:1 in 2050.
My guess is by 2040. Yuan appreciation may bring it forward by 5-10 years. Massive social unrest which is well on the could push it back by more than that.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Or are you being serious - Im not sure where exactly one is meant to start with this steaming pile of made up junk - did you even BOTHER to look at the info graphic ? Seriously did you ?
You're assessment of the US housing market is nothing short of horse shit.
AS for you're assessment of the US you have gleaned the most simplistic understanding of overheard urban myths cobbled together with what can only be assumed to be vibes and zero facts.
China took the mantle of worlds largest manufacturer in 2010 - it took the worlds largest exporter in 2011 overtook Japan as second largest economy in 2012 and is set to overtake the US around 2018.
The United states has absolutely decimated its manufacturing sector, on top of that it has crippled its wage earners through the biggest real wage destruction in its entire history - consumers are dead..its manufacturing sector has been off shored more than any other country not just to China, but India as well - services especially. Bridges and heavy domestic construction which are traditional mainstays of a stimulus and Keynesian revival have been off shored to Chinese manufacturers - yes BRIDGES are not even being built in or by Americans.
The entire US car manufacturing industry was shipped down south - hence why Detroit and Flint are dead - their steel died 20 years ago.
US employment figures vary - but are hugely warped as they are not actual measurements but samples, there are almost six indexes, and these reflect previous measurement techniques - some off them put unemployment well above depression levels. While youth unemployment is through the roof, not to mention the debt issues along with under employment and discouraged or non-claimants. The figures are startling.
America destroyed its manufacturing years ago - sorry it just did - the main industries now are defense, service, finance and prior to the downturn housing like large parts of Australia.
America is in more trouble in more areas than you can poke a stick at - it is in seriously deep water. The only option for America is to downsize its military and reintroduce historical normal levels of taxation on its wealthy (60%++) neither of which are going to happen.
The next generation of Americans are burdened with massive debts, there is NO RECOVERY anywhere in the housing market, the only recovery has been via stimulus and capital injection into their banking system, which is ow massively exposed to the EU collapse .
America is facing the greatest infrastructure collapse of any nation ever, there has been no investment in 30 years and the place is falling apart. Their petro-dollar reliance is coming to an end as India, Russia, China all turn away from reliance and commence their own basket of currencies, Gold and even direct transfers instead of using $USD - this means a continuing decline in the dollars value, potential inflation as bond yields soar and the mother of all issues facing the US which is simply not being dealt with their unimaginable levels of debt -
Even Obama has admitted that the next century is the Asian century, and if the US wants to have any relevance it needs to turn away from the middle east and Europe towards Asia, and it you haven't been noticing what has been happening with the Arab spring and EU meltdown that's exactly whats happening. The Darwin base is a prime example of America shifting into Asia as it knows it has to compete and at least try and stay close to what will be the worlds biggest super power within the decade China.
So yeah - great post Mike, maybe you might want to do another one on Fast Breeder Reactors, the algorithms required by cern to regulate the accelerators, or anything else you clearly haven't got a clue about - because you're seriously uninformed about America.
US is still the world largest manufactor producing 20% of all manufactored products world wide, only down from 22% in 1980. http://business.time.com/2011/03/10/can-china-compete-with-american-manufacturing/ As of 2009 the US manufactoring sector was 45% larger then Chinas, unless you think China has doubled its manufactoring in less then 3 years which is clearly not the case, you are wrong.
I think it is you who is spouting a heaping pile of ...., you clearly only spout what you heard on the street corner and fail to look at facts. US manufactoring has not been decimated, only certain sectors have become uncompetitive.
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