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Perth REIWA figures are out for March; Where's BP when you need him?
Topic Started: 12 May 2012, 05:31 PM (1,749 Views)
TED BULLPIT
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peter fraser
13 May 2012, 01:56 PM
Mike actually does have some data on his side.

There is the rental vacancy rate that has fallen from a high of 3% down to 0.5%Here.

There is clear evidence in the RPData daily index that prices have risen here.

Even on bear sites such as macrobusiness there is anecdotal evidence that buyer interest in Perth has rebounded.

So Mike could have a point.
I have studied rental vacacy rates lately over the last few years and was going to discuss this the other day after timmy asked me the question reguarding rents , but when I asked him if he wanted a parti ular capiatal or all capitals he did not respond. But my finding of the capitals show that only Perth and Darwin will see any worthwhile rental growth, and possibly to the tune of 10-15% over 2012. And that in our current economic climate is very good.
Most other capitals will be stagnant , with Melbourne and Hobart showing the biggest rental drops for the year. Brisbane is the tricky one here. On one hand I think the market will be tight due to natural disasters lately but on the other hand I feel some may abandon Brisbane. So I would say there is the possibility for short term rises but it will be short lived.
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earthsta
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Mike
13 May 2012, 11:35 AM

Landgate which counts every sale clearly shows the perth medium price moving up from the low of September 2011. Sales volumes now are almost to 2006/7 levels when WA was considered to be booming. Your looking at data which is almost 3 months old, im looking at data which is only a week old.

I'm looking at data that is todays data, not stale one week old data :re:

http://www.rpdata.com/research/back_series.html

If you're looking a week old data, you'd notice that prices in Perth are down. Matter of fact, if that rate of descent continues, Perth will be down another 10% by end of year.

Looks like you need a lifejacket :lol

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Perthite
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peter fraser
13 May 2012, 01:56 PM
Mike actually does have some data on his side.

There is the rental vacancy rate that has fallen from a high of 3% down to 0.5%Here.

There is clear evidence in the RPData daily index that prices have risen here.

Even on bear sites such as macrobusiness there is anecdotal evidence that buyer interest in Perth has rebounded.

So Mike could have a point.
Just wondering Peter if you think the in tact national correction could be a downside risk to the Perth Market. Most of Mike's comments are claiming a 40% increase in sales although he tones down his comments here. After very bullish REIWA articles lately these numbers are a surprise to say the least.

http://reiwa.com.au/Research/Pages/Perth-quarterly-market-charts.aspx

Mis information is alive and well. Sales below GFC numbers. Some recovery.

Mike has done himself little favours making comments like these. Comment 7.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/budget-misses-housing-opportunity-hia/comments-e6frg2ru-1226350697948



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newjez
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Mike - do you move into your properties before you sell them? Is this a way of minimizing capital gains tax - ie you sell the property as if it is your primary abode?

Just a warning mate - you may want to be careful about posting this on an open forum. The ATO have ways of tracking these things down.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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peter fraser
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Perthite
13 May 2012, 03:42 PM
peter fraser
13 May 2012, 01:56 PM
Mike actually does have some data on his side.

There is the rental vacancy rate that has fallen from a high of 3% down to 0.5%Here.

There is clear evidence in the RPData daily index that prices have risen here.

Even on bear sites such as macrobusiness there is anecdotal evidence that buyer interest in Perth has rebounded.

So Mike could have a point.
Just wondering Peter if you think the in tact national correction could be a downside risk to the Perth Market. Most of Mike's comments are claiming a 40% increase in sales although he tones down his comments here. After very bullish REIWA articles lately these numbers are a surprise to say the least.

http://reiwa.com.au/Research/Pages/Perth-quarterly-market-charts.aspx

Mis information is alive and well. Sales below GFC numbers. Some recovery.

Mike has done himself little favours making comments like these. Comment 7.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/budget-misses-housing-opportunity-hia/comments-e6frg2ru-1226350697948



I think that it would be fair to say that I'm not in the same bullish category as Mike or BP - but the WA people that I have spoken to over many years are always very confident in the success of their state. they have an exhuberance that most people in eastern states don't have.

You have linked to the quarterly figures for the period finishing 31/03/2012 whilst Mike is talking about the most recent week, so they are different time frames. If we look at that last quarter it averages from 400 to 500 sales per week. Mike on the other hand claims that this has now increased from 586 this time last year to 823 last week.

His figures for last year seem on the money, but I don't know about right now. If he is correct then it's a large jump, and it would indicate a bouyant market. You could phone a couple of real estate agents and casually ask them if they are busy, or you could attend some open homes or auctions. there is no research as good as your own on the ground research.

Unfortunately I can't access data from WA like I can in other states, so I can't check that. Does REIWA release that data shortly?

I guess we will know soon enough.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Perthite
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Peter I think I have touched on this before but nobody should be using sales that are not final to mis inform. These numbers have been much higher yoy for 18 months now. It led me to believe that it seemed sales started but fell over.

http://reiwa.com.au/Research/Pages/Perth-quarterly-market-charts.aspx

As you can see they failed to result in more sales. At least people are trying and that is a good sign. Perhaps more to do with the credit worthiness of the applicants.
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