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Unemployment rate decreased to 4.9% in April 2012; But 10,500 full-time jobs lost
Topic Started: 10 May 2012, 12:49 PM (5,199 Views)
miw
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themoops
10 May 2012, 05:45 PM
Sif. CGT exemptions has been abolished for China. Plus they have their own property bubble.
Won't make such a huge difference. Chinese pay CGT of 20% on full capital gain. Since Australia and China have a taxation treaty, the Australian tax will be deducted from the Chinese tax bill. So they are only out by the amount in excess of 20% of the capital gain they pay to the Australian Government. Maybe 10-15%. Enough to sting, but maybe not enough to make them change their decision.

And if they have the intention of becoming residents, then the point is moot.

Edited by miw, 10 May 2012, 08:11 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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earthsta
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Sydneyite
10 May 2012, 03:45 PM
earthsta
10 May 2012, 03:25 PM
And yet....house prices are falling.

Bulls are fucked
You seem angry? Beginning to doubt your own BS?
No.

Every time the ABS stats come out, house prices have fallen. :tu:

Every time I look at my trading account, the balance is rising. :bye:
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peter fraser
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genX
10 May 2012, 07:35 PM
peter fraser
10 May 2012, 02:42 PM
I don't know the current rules for claiming unemployment, but if you get a payout I don't think that you get the dole immediately - can anyone add to that?

It is means tested on liquid assets, so you have to draw down on savings until $3000 or $5000 (I forget which and it's been a while since I looked) per adult in the household.

This is the 'shadow unemployment' of the middle class that the Financial Review has run quite a few stories on recently.

Of course, once you get down to 6000 (or 10,000) bucks in savings, you are not going to be able to pay your mortgage off for much longer, so it is good to have a little buffer. Most of the financial services sector job cuts came with a redundancy payout as well, so that probably adds a few months to your buffer.

Most of those job losses were 3-6 months ago, so if that sector doesn't pick up we will see those people start to appear on the dole queue and their property on the market.

#winning
Thanks, I knew there was an asset test of some sort. Really if you did get a good payout and had a mortgage, you may be better off paying that off the mortgage and then applying.

Your point is valid though, anyone with a large mortgage is very vunerable to any loss of income.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Admin
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Unemployment data shows RBA misread the economy in double rate cut: Christopher Joye

By Christopher Joye
Thursday, 10 May 2012

It turns out that the RBA has indeed (at least superficially) "misread" the economy, as so many commentators are keen to claim. Awkwardly, however, it seems to have materially underestimated the strength of our labour market, which its research suggests is the single most powerful predictor of future inflation.

Despite both the RBA and the Treasury forecasting that Australia’s jobless rate would rise to 5.5%, and using this as a key justification for lower rates (alongside a temporary decline in the prices of internationally traded goods and services), it appears, as I had previously argued here, that the peak in the unemployment rate is behind us.

According to the official statistician, Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in April from a downwardly revised 5.1% in March. But let’s avoid the temptation of looking at a single month of data. As the chart below clearly shows, the three month “moving average” jobless rate has been falling steadily since September 2011, ironically just before the RBA started slashing rates. It is now nearly a full percentage point below its 5.8% peak during the GFC.

Posted Image

The monotonic decline in the unemployment rate since the second half of 2011 tells us a few things. First, the economy is not about to head into a protracted recession. Nor is the economy likely expanding at a rate that is significantly below trend (or capacity). In fact, the jobless rate implies that the labour market is near-fully employed. This in turn tells us that the economy is not in dire need of further interest rate relief.

Having said that, the volatile and prone-to-revision GDP data could very well confuse the issue. As the RBA has noted, the National Accounts are difficult to interpret when the country is undergoing a very lumpy and capital intensive private investment boom.

The second thing the unemployment rate tells us is that the high circa 3.5% per annum domestic (or “non-tradable”) inflation consistently recorded by the ABS is likely to be a permanent presence. In contrast, the “tradables” deflation induced by the striking appreciation in Australia’s exchange rate is, as I have explained before, a temporary event. Indeed, with the Aussie dollar now down about 8% from its 2011 highs, the deflation in internationally traded products that helped pull down Australia’s core inflation rate will likely have the opposite effect going forward.

You are unlikely to hear or read many of these arguments from other commentators. Most analysts are forecasting an increase in unemployment combined with a lower cash rate. Anyone with a commercial interest in the Australian equities and/or housing markets, including, importantly, almost all retail bankers, has been clamouring for rate cuts ever since the RBA appropriately tightened policy in November 2010. The Gillard government, its lobbyists and public proxies, are pinning their fragile political prospects on below-average lending rates. And the hysterical complaints of the trade-exposed industries almost always overwhelm the silent savers and retirees.

It is interesting to contemplate what the RBA might have done at its May board meeting had it had the benefit of this information and the Commonwealth budget. At face value, the super-sized 50 basis point cut would have been off the table. And a single 25-basis-point reduction might have been a less than certain proposition.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/economy/unemployment-data-shows-rba-misread-the-economy-in-double-rate-cut-christopher-joye/2012051054647
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apex
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Future
10 May 2012, 02:51 PM
Friggin awesome. Boom times look set to continue!
Anybody who believes these ABS figures has rocks in their head. Just look at some of the recent headlines from the MSM and tell me where the hell any new jobs are coming from? Most of these listed in the job loss thread on the forum here ( http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/8826518 ) so can't say you didn't hear of them!

Bottle maker sheds 70 jobs January 20, 2012
Thousands of bank jobs face axe: UBS January 16, 2012
ANZ to slash hundreds of jobs January 13, 2012
Jobs cut as strong dollar burns NSW smelters January 11, 2012
Jobs go as Fletcher Jones tailors for buyer December 15, 2011
Westpac to shed jobs as cost cutting bites November 9, 2011
MF Global’s Aussie arm to close, 83 jobs lost November 21, 2011
Toyota cuts 350 Altona jobs January 23, 2012
BlueScope confirms 1000 jobs cut August 22, 2011
Ford to shed 240 local jobs, cut production as demand slumps April 14, 2011
Mortein-maker culls 190 manufacturing jobs February 1, 2012
Telstra to shed 200 jobs in latest cuts January 31, 2012
BHP gears down nickel mine, jobs lost February 1, 2012
Strong dollar claims jobs at Holden February 2, 2012
Westpac set to announce job cuts February 2, 2012
Macquarie flags more job cuts February 7, 2012
Hundreds of smelter jobs at risk February 8, 2012
Suncorp to axe more workers: union February 8, 2012
Qantas axes 500 jobs as profit slumps February 16, 2012
60 jobs go as largest tomato grower crushed February 21, 2012
OneSteel to cut 430 jobs as shares soar February 21, 2012
Anzac biscuit maker crumbles, placing 170 jobs at risk March 1, 2012
Westpac axes more jobs to bolster profit March 6, 2012
Almost 600 people to lose jobs at WOW March 7, 2012
IAG to axe 600 jobs over three years March 9, 2012
Rising rents force job cuts at discount stores March 9, 2012
Jobs to go in OneSteel plant closure March 15, 2012
Electricity merger will cost 780 jobs March 19, 2012
Optus poised to cut hundreds of jobs March 20, 2012
Gearbox maker stands down 250 workers March 27, 2012
Metcash cuts 478 jobs April 3, 2012
BHP Billiton to close Norwich Park mine April 11, 2012
130 jobs to go in federal law office April 12, 2012
Optus cuts 750 jobs May 2, 2012
Workers locked out, 600 jobs gone as 1st Fleet shut down May 3, 2012
St George IT jobs on the line April 26, 2012
More jobs on line as Macquarie cuts costs April 27, 2012
Public service bracing for job cuts May 04, 2012
At least 500 Vic TAFE jobs to go Wed May 2 2012
Wine industry faces job cuts, ongoing grape glut May 03, 2012
Budget to slash 40 jobs from Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet to save $9m May 03, 2012
Qld public sector fears massive job cuts Tue May 1 2012
CBA cuts jobs in Melbourne May 7, 2012
Murray Goulburn sheds 301 jobs after revamp May 10, 2012
Edited by apex, 10 May 2012, 09:08 PM.
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genX
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Thanks, I knew there was an asset test of some sort. Really if you did get a good payout and had a mortgage, you may be better off paying that off the mortgage and then applying.

I think the average redundancy payout is 3-6 months pay, depending on a lot of factors. You get long service leave, plus a sweetener for keeping your mouth shut. It's unlikely that many will be able to pay down their entire mortgage from their payout, but if they could, you are right, they should. It would still be a struggle, but at least your biggest cost would be eliminated.

On the other hand, there is almost no mortgage that can be paid off with dole payments, so if you run out of cash and need to live on gov bennies, then the house has to go.

Quote:
 
Your point is valid though, anyone with a large mortgage is very vunerable to any loss of income.

Even in dual income households, the loss of one income can cause severe repayment stress. On the other hand, I personally know some couples that if they lost the smallest income, it would actually be a net gain :)
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Lefty
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Strindberg
10 May 2012, 07:26 PM
It is cast in demographic stone that the participation rate is and will continue to fall.

I expect Lefty will be proclaiming in 2050 that the unemployment rate would be 30% if nobody had retired from the workforce.

The unemployment rate is based only on those who are in work or seeking work. People without the means to support themselves do not suddenly cease seeking work. There's no dole if you cease to seek work.

The unemployment rate is the seekers/workforce. Face facts. It is not rising. Hypothesising that the unemployment rate would have risen if people had not retired is hypothetical nonsense.

What matters in terms of overall citizens well being is the unemployment rate - not the number of jobs. The ideal is an unemployment rate of 0%, even if no one has a job and everything is done by robots.
Strindberg, I will say that when it comes to gauging the actual state of the broad labour market, it is perfectly plausable that you are correct and that the director of an institution dedicated to the purpose of researching the Australian labour market has it wrong - but you'll have to forgive me if I suspect that it's the other way around.

No, the labour market is not presently "crashing" - but it is far from growing robustly, it's not doing well enough to be realistically considered "ok" either and to pretend otherwise is unhelpful.
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peter fraser
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Lefty
10 May 2012, 10:25 PM
Strindberg
10 May 2012, 07:26 PM
It is cast in demographic stone that the participation rate is and will continue to fall.

I expect Lefty will be proclaiming in 2050 that the unemployment rate would be 30% if nobody had retired from the workforce.

The unemployment rate is based only on those who are in work or seeking work. People without the means to support themselves do not suddenly cease seeking work. There's no dole if you cease to seek work.

The unemployment rate is the seekers/workforce. Face facts. It is not rising. Hypothesising that the unemployment rate would have risen if people had not retired is hypothetical nonsense.

What matters in terms of overall citizens well being is the unemployment rate - not the number of jobs. The ideal is an unemployment rate of 0%, even if no one has a job and everything is done by robots.
Strindberg, I will say that when it comes to gauging the actual state of the broad labour market, it is perfectly plausable that you are correct and that the director of an institution dedicated to the purpose of researching the Australian labour market has it wrong - but you'll have to forgive me if I suspect that it's the other way around.

No, the labour market is not presently "crashing" - but it is far from growing robustly, it's not doing well enough to be realistically considered "ok" either and to pretend otherwise is unhelpful.
Lefty - when compared to historical data, an unemployment rate of around 5% is really very good, and it isn't possible to have unemployment racing down from this level. If we had high unemployment, then in a growing market we would see a stronger rate of growth, but really we are close to the maximum.

I don't think that everyone accepts this figure without some reservations, but even it if tracks back to last months level next month, it's still very good.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Lefty
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Depends where you start your historical data though from Peter. For a long period, we managed to average around 2.5%. Additionally, there has been a long trend of increasing casualisation and part-time work, with the ABS measuring under-employment at around 12.5% at last count. Job growth is fluctuating around the zero line and the participation rate is falling, pulling down the headline unemployment rate as the pool of working age people in the labour force shrinks.

Personally, I feel that to aspire to no better than this is a rather weak aspiration. I guess I could try adopting a rosier outlook and ignoring the obvious problems.

Additionally, the near-zero jobs growth rate in conjunction with slowing growth, signs of disinflation, falling job ads and a host of other weak indicators is telling us that all is not well in the economy. Yet we are told that the mining boom - the biggest in history - is turbocharging the economy, threatening an inflationary breakout. How is it that we have near-zero jobs growth, disinflation and a sick housing market with flat to falling prices in such an allegedly turbocharged environment?


I can really only agree that it's not presently crashing Peter - I wouldn't be calling it "very good".
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peter fraser
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Lefty
10 May 2012, 11:34 PM
Depends where you start your historical data though from Peter. For a long period, we managed to average around 2.5%. Additionally, there has been a long trend of increasing casualisation and part-time work, with the ABS measuring under-employment at around 12.5% at last count. Job growth is fluctuating around the zero line and the participation rate is falling, pulling down the headline unemployment rate as the pool of working age people in the labour force shrinks.

Personally, I feel that to aspire to no better than this is a rather weak aspiration. I guess I could try adopting a rosier outlook and ignoring the obvious problems.

Additionally, the near-zero jobs growth rate in conjunction with slowing growth, signs of disinflation, falling job ads and a host of other weak indicators is telling us that all is not well in the economy. Yet we are told that the mining boom - the biggest in history - is turbocharging the economy, threatening an inflationary breakout. How is it that we have near-zero jobs growth, disinflation and a sick housing market with flat to falling prices in such an allegedly turbocharged environment?


I can really only agree that it's not presently crashing Peter - I wouldn't be calling it "very good".
2.5% - when was that lefty?

When I studied for my bronze medal in swimming I distinctly remember the opinion that anything better than 7% was not too bad.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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