The fall in unemployment appears to have been almost entirely accounted for by the falling participation rate.
The bulls will now cast doubt on that, ignoring the volumes of evidence that the non-mining economy is soft at best.
Agree. A flat partipation rate would have resulted in the same UE rate.
Actual job growth over the past 12 months is at best anemic especially compared to underlying workforce growth. Losing full time jobs for gains in part time jobs is not a good sign.
Debt markets seem to agree. Futures still pricing in 50bpts rate cut by August & 100bpts by Feb. 10 Year bond yield back to where it was yesterday afternoon.
The fall in unemployment appears to have been almost entirely accounted for by the falling participation rate.
The bulls will now cast doubt on that, ignoring the volumes of evidence that the non-mining economy is soft at best.
I don't deny that is the primary factor in the fall in the headline unemployment rate. Certainly nowhere near the sort of strong workforce expansion and full-time job growth that most of us would like to see in these numbers.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
The fall in unemployment appears to have been almost entirely accounted for by the falling participation rate.
The bulls will now cast doubt on that, ignoring the volumes of evidence that the non-mining economy is soft at best.
It is cast in demographic stone that the participation rate is and will continue to fall.
I expect Lefty will be proclaiming in 2050 that the unemployment rate would be 30% if nobody had retired from the workforce.
The unemployment rate is based only on those who are in work or seeking work. People without the means to support themselves do not suddenly cease seeking work. There's no dole if you cease to seek work.
The unemployment rate is the seekers/workforce. Face facts. It is not rising. Hypothesising that the unemployment rate would have risen if people had not retired is hypothetical nonsense.
What matters in terms of overall citizens well being is the unemployment rate - not the number of jobs. The ideal is an unemployment rate of 0%, even if no one has a job and everything is done by robots.
I don't know the current rules for claiming unemployment, but if you get a payout I don't think that you get the dole immediately - can anyone add to that?
It is means tested on liquid assets, so you have to draw down on savings until $3000 or $5000 (I forget which and it's been a while since I looked) per adult in the household.
This is the 'shadow unemployment' of the middle class that the Financial Review has run quite a few stories on recently.
Of course, once you get down to 6000 (or 10,000) bucks in savings, you are not going to be able to pay your mortgage off for much longer, so it is good to have a little buffer. Most of the financial services sector job cuts came with a redundancy payout as well, so that probably adds a few months to your buffer.
Most of those job losses were 3-6 months ago, so if that sector doesn't pick up we will see those people start to appear on the dole queue and their property on the market.
Any evidence that Chinese purchasing is driven by the CGT discount? Let me answer that for you: NO
There is no evidence that Chinese purchasing is not driven by the CGT discount either.
there is some anecdotal evidence that Chinese purchasers are far more concerned about cap gains than rent, in some circumstances leaving places vacant in the anticipation of cap gains.
There are reports that Chinese investors have other motives in buying property in western countries, like wealth storage, an escape option, kids accommodation while studying and a retirement option. CGT changes (and exchange rates) mean that the decision of which country to buy in may move away from Australia.
The fall in unemployment appears to have been almost entirely accounted for by the falling participation rate.
The bulls will now cast doubt on that, ignoring the volumes of evidence that the non-mining economy is soft at best.
the participation rate (flat in trend) went from 65.3 to 65.2%, hardly a major shift, and would not account for the fall in UE. If the UE rate has not fallen like the ABS stats indicate then it is probably a sampling error.
MB are in a state of shock. Three threads and 135 comments so far on this today.
Next month headlines will read "HUGE rise in unemployment".
Yes, you can safely bet that if next month's ABS figures do indicate a huge rise in unemployment it will be accepted as the gospel truth on MB with claims of "we told you" by the cock-up supremo David Llewellyn-Smith.
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