EDIT: Not believing in "the inevitable crash" does NOT imply that you think everyone should rush out and borrow to the max to purchase property now at this instant. It might mean though that selling to rent in speculation of profiting from a large fall in prices might not be such a great idea, or at least that this idea might carry a lot more risk than many bears who have done it think. It is certainly a VERY different thing compared to the type of stock "pump and dump" scenario we might be looking at with the MB guys here, and that's without even getting into the clear legal / regulatory differences between the scenarios.
This.
Despite what a number of people here seem to think, there IS actually a middle ground. And it's also the most likely scenario based on where we are now.
Despite what a number of people here seem to think, there IS actually a middle ground. And it's also the most likely scenario based on where we are now.
Do you have the equations for this equilibrium condition?
Because mathematicians/econometricians have searched for them for at least 4 decades and haven't found them.
None of the equations that have come from the field of economics have an equilibrium condition, but if you have research that says otherwise, there is a lot of interest in the subject, and a lot of money too. It's like the holy grail of economics. Let us know when you are published.
Until you are published, I think I will take a risk and punt on there being no equilibrium condition, and trade accordingly.
Do you have the equations for this equilibrium condition?
Because mathematicians/econometricians have searched for them for at least 4 decades and haven't found them.
None of the equations that have come from the field of economics have an equilibrium condition, but if you have research that says otherwise, there is a lot of interest in the subject, and a lot of money too. It's like the holy grail of economics. Let us know when you are published.
Until you are published, I think I will take a risk and punt on there being no equilibrium condition, and trade accordingly.
Really? You think pretending to be an economic genius is going to change anything?
The simple fact is that there is a middle ground that exists between "the sky if falling" and "buy now or miss out forever".
Do you think wishful thinking is going to change anything?
You seem to think so, but no matter how many wishes you make and no matter how many times you click your heals together, you ain't going to get your crash.
Is it your assertion that there is no middle ground between property booming and property busting?
Yes! My definition of 'busting' is at least a 15% drop in nominal terms, and same for 'booming'.
Quote:
Perhaps you could answer the question instead of avoiding it. If you don't know, say so!
Your question was, and I quote "Really? You think pretending to be an economic genius is going to change anything?". That's not the same question as "Is it your assertion that there is no middle ground between property booming and property busting?".
I thought your first question was rhetorical, as it had no subject in it. But to answer it, no, I don't think in general that pretending to be an economic genius changes very much, unless you are a con-artist, and then it might change the success rate of your cons. Did you mean to ask "Do you think that by pretending to be an economic genius you are going to change anything?". Because that is an entirely different question.
You seem to think so, but no matter how many wishes you make and no matter how many times you click your heals together, you ain't going to get your crash.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy