Chris Becker claims in his excuses article today that he achieves "50-70% annualized returns". I suggest that is evidence of his delusion, lying or unbelievable luck.
For example, assume he began with just $100k 10 years ago. With a 60% annualized return he would now have $11m. In another 10 years he will have $1.2 BILLION.
Wow, that is almost worthy of a new thread. Here is what Becker claims...
Quote:
I’ve been able to refine my own investment tools to take into account the macro trends and drivers and integrate a more timely allocation/sentiment based system.
To be clear, this isn’t something new I’ve discovered, it’s a system I’ve been using successfully in my proprietary trading business for over two years. Remember, I’m a full time private trader and require 50-70% annualized returns to pay the bills –regardless of the market. This success has driven and renewed my focus in both trading and investing
I would strongly recommend Becker read Taleb's 'Fooled by Randomness'. Becker sounds like a typical share spruiker or snake-oil salesman, convinced he has a magic 'system' that will consistently generate 50-70% annualised returns. This of course is nonsense. Even if by some stroke of luck his system did achieve 50-70% return one year, it's probably just as likely to deliver a 50-70% loss the following year (especially given his dreadful track record with JB Hi-Fi and Cochlear).
And if he really had invented such an amazing system, what's he doing blogging about it on Macrobusiness?
Perhaps next week he'll kindly offer to let his readers share his secret system... for a 'small' fee.
Anyone silly enough to buy into the narrative the three of you consistently post would rush out and buy property tomorrow. Hell have the decency to own it.
One post from each of us is all you need to provide a link to, demonstrating the point that you claim is obvious and clear to all.
PS: I think you will struggle, because like so many property bears, you struggle to differentiate between those that simply don't buy into your favoured "the sky is falling / housing is massively over-priced and in a bubble blah blah blah" narrative, and true property "spruikers".
EDIT: Not believing in "the inevitable crash" does NOT imply that you think everyone should rush out and borrow to the max to purchase property now at this instant. It might mean though that selling to rent in speculation of profiting from a large fall in prices might not be such a great idea, or at least that this idea might carry a lot more risk than many bears who have done it think. It is certainly a VERY different thing compared to the type of stock "pump and dump" scenario we might be looking at with the MB guys here, and that's without even getting into the clear legal / regulatory differences between the scenarios.
One post from each of us is all you need to provide a link to, demonstrating the point that you claim is obvious and clear to all.
PS: I think you will struggle, because like so many property bears, you struggle to differentiate between those that simply don't buy into your favoured "the sky is falling / housing is massively over-priced and in a bubble blah blah blah" narrative, and true property "spruikers".
I honesty can't be bothered.
The narrative the three of you post is clear enough to me. There are only about two or three people here worth taking seriously. The rest of you are no more than comedic fodder.
The narrative the three of you post is clear enough to me. There are only about two or three people here worth taking seriously. The rest of you are no more than comedic fodder. I can find no concrete evidence to back my belief, It's just the vibe!
Translation - I am full of BS, and the reality is I simply cannot handle having my preconceived and self-serving beliefs in housing doom and gloom challenged on any level.
Chris Becker has obviously been reading the exposures here of his potentially criminal share spruiking of JBH and is trying to concoct a defence by claiming his and his co Director's past utterances to be different to what they were.
Chris is now trying to distance himself from Empire Investment, the company in whose name he uttered his JBH spruiks.
He ignores ALL contributions to the JHB spruik made by his then fellow Director of Empire Investing - Q Continuum. He now claims that he sold his Empire stake in mid_December.
Yet Chris declared he was still with Empire on the 16th December here when he wrote:
Strange that he never previously mentioned either his leaving Empire or Empire selling JBH, a stock they had repeatedly spruiked. So Chris is saying on 16 December Empire sold all their stock "awhile back". Not according to his co Director, Q Continuum, who on 3rd January 2012 posted this:
Either Chris or Q Continuum is lying.
Chris also now tries to suggest that he was speaking of JBH as a speculative part of an investment portfolio. In today's article, in a picture, he distinguishes between "investment assets" and "speculative assets" clearly inferring that JBH were in the latter class. Why then on 9th August 2011 did Chris himself declare, as a Director of Empire Investment, that JBH are "investment grade" here:
So, having previously claimed the shares to be investment grade he now tells us they were always speculative. Devious shit making.
In one of his charts (which ignore all the spruiks) he now claims that he gave a warning on 16th December on JBH. This was uselessly AFTER the share price crash and it was no warning at all. Here's the post he made. Where is the warning? There is none.
Having spruiked JBH repeatedly and now claiming he lost almost nothing, where were the follow up warnings? There were none.
Here's some of the spruiks posted by Chris and his co Director:
The latter spruik was made on 3rd January on macrobusiness.
Chis Becker is digging a deeper hole.
for God's sake, get some professional help strindberg.
Rinse, repeat.
Is there any reason this tripe needs to be on the main forum instead of the lounge ?
I would strongly recommend Becker read Taleb's 'Fooled by Randomness'. Becker sounds like a typical share spruiker or snake-oil salesman, convinced he has a magic 'system' that will consistently generate 50-70% annualised returns. This of course is nonsense. Even if by some stroke of luck his system did achieve 50-70% return one year, it's probably just as likely to deliver a 50-70% loss the following year (especially given his dreadful track record with JB Hi-Fi and Cochlear).
And if he really had invented such an amazing system, what's he doing blogging about it on Macrobusiness?
There are certainly traders who fairly regularly get 50-70% returns in some years. There are even traders who have averaged 30-35% over a 10-year period including the good years and the bad.
But they don't blog and they don't use these "systems". They are very clever people with ice in their veins and they don't blog. They work 16 hours a day on their trading.
Well, they often use systems for a while, but they don't tell anybody the system until it stops working and they have developed their next system, and it's never more than a small pecentage of their at-risk capital. The systems are mostly based on trend-following or momentum indicators. They do work, but none of them give anything like a 30% return over time. 15% would be better than any I have seen.
And only a minority of the high-performance traders would be doing stocks. In stocks you can only use 50% leverage at most, while with futures you can do 90%. Shorting stocks is also a lot tougher to do successfully than shorting futures.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
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